THE POWER RANK

5-Nugget Saturday, March 25, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Connecticut Huskies – This team was not in the top 25 of the preseason AP poll, a sign they might not have tournament success due to a lack of team strength. Unlike Purdue and Marquette, their roster suggests otherwise.

  • Jordan Hawkins is considered a first round NBA pick. If I could bottle his shooting form and display it on my mantle, I would.
  • Andre Jackson should also get drafted because of his elite athleticism.
  • Adama Sanogo is a man child that no team has had an answer for in this tournament. I’m not sure why he isn’t on NBA mock drafts.
  • Freshman Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan might be two of the best players in the nation next season.

Connecticut’s dominance in the tournament has partially come from hot shooting (44.8% from three). However, they are rightly favored against a very good Gonzaga team.

Miami Marlins win total – Adam Burke of VSIN sees an improving roster under new GM Kim Ng, the first female GM in baseball.

On offense, Miami added Luis Arraez, the reigning AL batting champ. He minimizes strikeouts, which should help the offense in their hitter unfriendly park. However, Miami scored the fewest runs in the majors last season and don’t project as much better this season.

For pitching, Miami has defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, but it gets murky beyond their ace. They will need break out seasons from high upside pitchers like Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers.

Despite the improving roster, Adam likes under 76.5 wins, a number still available at DraftKings. Adam pours his heart and soul into all 30 of his in depth MLB team previews, which I highly recommend.

Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State, Elite Eight – Pro bettor Drew Martin notes how well Conference USA teams are doing this postseason:

  • UAB and North Texas made the NIT Final Four.
  • Charlotte beat Eastern Kentucky in the CBI championship game.

This insight has been a part of recent his wins on UAB at Vanderbilt and FAU vs Tennessee.

Kansas State has had a fantastic season, but they have given up baskets at an elevated rate the past four games. In addition, their best player Markquis Nowell might not be 100% after rolling an ankle Thursday night against Michigan State.

Drew likes Florida Atlantic +2, available at DraftKings. For all of his college basketball and baseball insights, follow Drew on Twitter.

College basketball predictions – These predictions are available to members of The Power Rank.

  • Connecticut will beat Gonzaga by 1.2 points. With the losses to Alabama and Houston, the winner of this game will be favored in all remaining tournament games.
  • Kansas State will beat Florida Atlantic by 0.6 points. My numbers agree with Drew Martin (see above).
  • Creighton will beat San Diego State by 1.2 points. While Creighton is the favorite, they will face the 8th best defensive team by my adjusted points per possession.

College basketball humor – Last weekend, some betters had Gonzaga -4.5 vs TCU, and this hurt worse than blue balls on a first date as a 16 year old virgin.

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Alabama’s championship probability

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Beyond the numbers, one game shows the ceiling of this Alabama team. Down 15 points in the second half at Houston, they stormed back for the win. 

In addition, their best player Brandon Miller didn’t have a basket in this game (8 points on 9 free throw attempts). Alabama’s ball movement was exceptional against an elite defense. This is the best win by any team in the nation.

On offense, coach Nate Oats follows the analytics and shoots the three. Alabama takes 47.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. The freshman Miller is their best shooter at 39.5%. 

Miller also has the athletic ability to get to the basket, and this combination of skills makes him a lottery pick in the next NBA draft. 

Their second best shooter is probably Mark Sears, a 6’1” point guard who transferred from Ohio. Sears makes 35.4% of his threes, and he starts over Jahvon Quinerly, who has started the past two seasons for Alabama.

Overall, Alabama ranks 16th on offense by my adjusted points per possession. If they have a weakness, it’s taking care of the ball. Alabama ranks 114th in turnover rate adjusted for opponents.

Alabama is elite on defense, as they rank 2nd in my adjusted points per possession. They are due for regression, as they have held opponents to 28.1% from three, third best in the nation.

However, don’t expect Alabama to slip too much. They rank 1st in my adjusted two point field goal percentage. While big Charles Bediako certainly helps here, Alabama is doing this with freshmen like Miller, guard Jaden Bradley and big Noah Clowney.

In the tournament, Alabama has excelled. They hammered a good Maryland team to make the Sweet Sixteen without shooting particularly well (6-21, 28.6% from three).

Against San Diego State on Friday night, Alabama is a 7.5 point favorite. Models consider the entire season worth of data can’t quite get to this number. For example, Ken Pomeroy has Alabama by 6.

Members of The Power Rank have access a college basketball model that reacts more aggressively to recent performance. Alabama has a made a surge in this model over the past two weeks, and this model predicts Alabama -8.

This more aggressive model also has Alabama at 31% to win the national championship. If you think Alabama is playing over their head the past two weeks and will regress, then this is probably an overestimate.

However, you might think Alabama is surging at the right time. In addition, this San Diego State spread seems accurate. If so, my more aggressive model is closer to the truth. You should shop around for the best price, but my numbers see value at Wynn with Alabama +350 to win the national championship (22.2% break even probability).

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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 12:30pm Eastern on March 23, 2023. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

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5-Nugget Saturday, March 18, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Denver at New York, NBA – Pro bettor Eddie Walls likes the home dog in this one. He notes that Denver has been lackluster on their current road trip. As the top seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets might be waiting for the playoffs to start.

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is questionable, but Eddie thinks back ups Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes should be able to get to the basketball against Denver. He likes Knicks +2.

Follow pro bettor Eddie Walls on Twitter.

Florida Atlantic vs Fairleigh Dickinson, NCAA tournament – On Friday night, Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off one of the greatest upsets in sports history in knocking off the 1 seed Purdue. And perhaps they will make a run like 15 seed St. Peter’s did last season to the Elite Eight.

However, Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the 10 worst defenses in college basketball (356th in my adjusted points per possession), and holding Purdue to 63 points was a fluke. My numbers like Florida Atlantic by 17.7 points, and you can grab -12.5 at Caesars before it moves in the direction of the favorite.

College basketball predictions – These NCAA tournament predictions are available to members of The Power Rank. All games are considered neutral site.

  • Houston will beat Auburn by 4.4 points. Houston guard Marcus Sasser didn’t play in the 2nd half against Northern Kentucky because of his groin injury, and guard Jamal Shead didn’t look 100% because of a knee issue.
  • Kansas will beat Arkansas by 3.3 points. The Jayhawks might be the 1 seed, but their margin is slim. Arkansas wings Anthony Black and Nick Smith are potential lottery picks in the next NBA draft.
  • Duke will beat Tennessee by 0.8 points. Even with the struggles of Tennessee, my numbers can’t quite get to Duke -3 like the markets.

The preseason AP poll – From the godfather of college basketball analytics:

Purdue is out, and Marquette is only a 2.5 point favorite over Michigan State.

NFL humor – Annie Agar with a fantastic 9 second recap of free agency.

In case you’ve spent all of your time researching a NCAA tournament champion this week, Aaron Rodgers plans to be traded to the Jets.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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