Looking for smart sports betting action this weekend? Your weekly curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
College basketball player prop – Kansas wing Kevin McCullar Jr. is questionable to play tonight against Texas. McCullar has missed three conference games the past month and then tweaked his knee when he returned against Oklahoma last Saturday. Coach Bill Self said that McCullar had not practiced through Thursday of this week.
If McCullar doesn’t play, there should be more shots for other key Kansas players. This suggests value in these two player props on FanDuel:
- Hunter Dickinson over 18.5 points, -125. The big man has gone over this point total in eight of 13 conference games.
- Johnny Furphy over 11.5 points, -130. The freshman from Australia has started the last 11 games and gone over this point total in seven of these games. He is considered a 1st round pick in the next NBA draft.
How Houston basketball ignores analytics – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Jordan Sperber, the college basketball analytics expert who writes the Hoop Vision newsletter, explained how Houston basketball thrives on defense despite ignoring analytics.
To defend the pick and roll, college basketball analytics suggest employing drop coverage. This means that the defender guarding the player setting the pick should sag off the ball handler. This tends to lead to an inefficient mid range jump shot instead of a more efficient off ball three pointer.
However, Houston attacks the ball handler. Despite bucking analytics, Houston has a historically good defensive efficiency this year for three reasons:
- Relentless defensive pressure that results in a top 5 forced turnover rate.
- Excellence in closing out three point shooters.
- Shot blocking ability (freshman JoJo Tugler is 6’7″ but has a 7’6″ wingspan).
How to do your gambling taxes – Have an incredible year of winnings on that soft BetMGM account and now have to deal with your taxes? In a critical episode of the Unabated Podcast, professional gambler Gina Fiore interviewed CPA Zack Zimbile to discuss many important issues.
Topics include what kind of deductions a recreational bettor can take and how to deal with the accounts of betting partners. While the episode has recreational gambler in the title, the last topic on accounts also has implications for professional bettors (listen at 15:52).
College basketball analytics – Ken Pomeroy is the godfather of college basketball analytics, and Matt Norlander of CBS has made his Hall of Fame case.
He quotes Kansas coach Bill Self: “Ken probably has more to do with scouting and game planning and also setting criteria for the NCAA Tournament selection more than anybody.”
Not bad for the former weatherman. You can grab Ken’s work at his site kenpom.com, and the subscription is a no brainer for handicapping player props (I used it for Kansas above).
Football humor – Former Patriots WR Julian Edelman was hilarious on the Manning Cast, and he’s even funnier in this clip about Bill Belichick.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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