THE POWER RANK

5-Nugget Saturday, March 25, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Connecticut Huskies – This team was not in the top 25 of the preseason AP poll, a sign they might not have tournament success due to a lack of team strength. Unlike Purdue and Marquette, their roster suggests otherwise.

  • Jordan Hawkins is considered a first round NBA pick. If I could bottle his shooting form and display it on my mantle, I would.
  • Andre Jackson should also get drafted because of his elite athleticism.
  • Adama Sanogo is a man child that no team has had an answer for in this tournament. I’m not sure why he isn’t on NBA mock drafts.
  • Freshman Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan might be two of the best players in the nation next season.

Connecticut’s dominance in the tournament has partially come from hot shooting (44.8% from three). However, they are rightly favored against a very good Gonzaga team.

Miami Marlins win total – Adam Burke of VSIN sees an improving roster under new GM Kim Ng, the first female GM in baseball.

On offense, Miami added Luis Arraez, the reigning AL batting champ. He minimizes strikeouts, which should help the offense in their hitter unfriendly park. However, Miami scored the fewest runs in the majors last season and don’t project as much better this season.

For pitching, Miami has defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, but it gets murky beyond their ace. They will need break out seasons from high upside pitchers like Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers.

Despite the improving roster, Adam likes under 76.5 wins, a number still available at DraftKings. Adam pours his heart and soul into all 30 of his in depth MLB team previews, which I highly recommend.

Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State, Elite Eight – Pro bettor Drew Martin notes how well Conference USA teams are doing this postseason:

  • UAB and North Texas made the NIT Final Four.
  • Charlotte beat Eastern Kentucky in the CBI championship game.

This insight has been a part of recent his wins on UAB at Vanderbilt and FAU vs Tennessee.

Kansas State has had a fantastic season, but they have given up baskets at an elevated rate the past four games. In addition, their best player Markquis Nowell might not be 100% after rolling an ankle Thursday night against Michigan State.

Drew likes Florida Atlantic +2, available at DraftKings. For all of his college basketball and baseball insights, follow Drew on Twitter.

College basketball predictions – These predictions are available to members of The Power Rank.

  • Connecticut will beat Gonzaga by 1.2 points. With the losses to Alabama and Houston, the winner of this game will be favored in all remaining tournament games.
  • Kansas State will beat Florida Atlantic by 0.6 points. My numbers agree with Drew Martin (see above).
  • Creighton will beat San Diego State by 1.2 points. While Creighton is the favorite, they will face the 8th best defensive team by my adjusted points per possession.

College basketball humor – Last weekend, some betters had Gonzaga -4.5 vs TCU, and this hurt worse than blue balls on a first date as a 16 year old virgin.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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5-Nugget Saturday, March 18, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Denver at New York, NBA – Pro bettor Eddie Walls likes the home dog in this one. He notes that Denver has been lackluster on their current road trip. As the top seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets might be waiting for the playoffs to start.

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is questionable, but Eddie thinks back ups Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes should be able to get to the basketball against Denver. He likes Knicks +2.

Follow pro bettor Eddie Walls on Twitter.

Florida Atlantic vs Fairleigh Dickinson, NCAA tournament – On Friday night, Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off one of the greatest upsets in sports history in knocking off the 1 seed Purdue. And perhaps they will make a run like 15 seed St. Peter’s did last season to the Elite Eight.

However, Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the 10 worst defenses in college basketball (356th in my adjusted points per possession), and holding Purdue to 63 points was a fluke. My numbers like Florida Atlantic by 17.7 points, and you can grab -12.5 at Caesars before it moves in the direction of the favorite.

College basketball predictions – These NCAA tournament predictions are available to members of The Power Rank. All games are considered neutral site.

  • Houston will beat Auburn by 4.4 points. Houston guard Marcus Sasser didn’t play in the 2nd half against Northern Kentucky because of his groin injury, and guard Jamal Shead didn’t look 100% because of a knee issue.
  • Kansas will beat Arkansas by 3.3 points. The Jayhawks might be the 1 seed, but their margin is slim. Arkansas wings Anthony Black and Nick Smith are potential lottery picks in the next NBA draft.
  • Duke will beat Tennessee by 0.8 points. Even with the struggles of Tennessee, my numbers can’t quite get to Duke -3 like the markets.

The preseason AP poll – From the godfather of college basketball analytics:

Purdue is out, and Marquette is only a 2.5 point favorite over Michigan State.

NFL humor – Annie Agar with a fantastic 9 second recap of free agency.

In case you’ve spent all of your time researching a NCAA tournament champion this week, Aaron Rodgers plans to be traded to the Jets.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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5-Nugget Saturday, March 11, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

First CB in the NFL draft – Benjamin Solak of The Ringer joined the Deep Dive podcast to talk about the NFL draft and cornerbacks.

Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez is the favorite as the first CB taken, as he checks every box. However, Solek notes that some teams will have Devon Witherspoon ahead of him. The exceptional film on the Illinois star makes up for concerns about his size.

While the market has moved already, Solek suggested value in betting Witherspoon at +300 as the first CB taken (FanDuel).

College basketball injuries – Evan Miya’s COVID baby was college basketball analyitcs. Based on his Ph.D. in Statistics, he developed a Bayesian approach to evaluating players both on offense and defense. The result is an adjusted plus minus for college basketball players.

On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Evan talked about UCLA’s Jaylen Clark, the third best defensive player in the nation by his metrics. The season ending achilles injury to Clark drops UCLA from 5th to 7th in his team rankings.

UCLA hosted Arizona recently and closed as a 5.5 point favorite with Clark. With three points of home court, this implies UCLA was 2.5 point better.

These two teams play again in the Pac-12 tournament tonight at a neutral site. As of Saturday morning, Circa and Bookmaker have their rematch as a pick, which suggests Clark is worth about 2.5 points.

Evan broke down his methods and discussed three team he likes to win March Madness in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Do you make this mistake in your bracket? – Since you get this email and have read this far, you’re going to use analytics to fill out your bracket. But will you use it in every game?

An episode of my podcast gets into the cognitive science behind why you might not. The ideas apply not only to your bracket but also that list of bets you get from a long time winner.

Desmond Bane assists prop – The third year pro for the Memphis Grizzlies is having his best season, averaging a career high 21.2 points per game. However, Betscope notes some value on his assists prop against Dallas tonight (6pm Eastern tip off).

Sports books are split between 4.5 and 5.5 assists for Bane while he has averaged 4.1 assists this season. DARKO, probably the best NBA player projection system out there, also projects 4.1 assists moving forward. This suggests value on under 5.5 assists, and FanDuel has the best price (-146).

The mythical 12 seed – Last weekend, Andy Molitor of Betspurts poked fun of the public.

This is data from NCAA tournaments since 1985:

  • 10 over 7 seed: 40.9%
  • 11 over 6 seed: 36.7%
  • 12 over 5 seed: 34.3%
  • 13 over 4 seed: 21.9%

There is nothing special about a 12 seed.

Get your March Madness cheat sheet

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

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5-Nugget Saturday, March 4, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

LSU at Florida, college basketball – Drew Martin of SportsGrid notes that Florida has lost six of their last eight games, giving up more than 80 points in three of their last four. The injury to Colin Castleton in these four games has hurt the Gators.

Florida struggles both rebounding and shooting, ranking near or at the bottom of the conference in both categories since the loss of Castleton. The “O Dome” can be a tough place to play, but Florida is in a down spin and should not be asked to cover a big number.

LSU comes into Gainsville at the bottom of the SEC standings. However, the Bayou Bengals have not quit on first year head coach Matt McMahon. The Tigers have played teams close of late, even getting their first conference outright win last week.  

Drew likes when terrible teams become decent because they stay under the radar. He sent me LSU +8.5 on Friday night, and he still thinks there is value on LSU +7.5. Follow Drew Martin on Twitter where he posts college basketball bets and write ups.

NBA assists prop – Alperen Senguin is a 20 year old Turkish center in his second season with the Houston Rockets. He has had a promising season, averaging 14.8 points and 8.6 rebounds as the starter.

However, Betscope notices some value on his assist prop. While most books have him at 4.5 assists, FanDuel has Senguin at 5.5. The season average of 3.9 assists for Senguin suggests value on under 5.5 assists, -156.

College basketball predictions – These are predictions can be calculated from The Power Rank member college basketball rankings page, currently available for free to the public.

  • Tennessee will beat Auburn by 4.4 points on the road. Tennessee lost point guard Zakai Zeigler for the season this week. There should be an adjustment, but probably not one that makes Auburn the favorite.
  • Texas will beat Kansas by 1.0 at home. The Jayhawks should get a 1 seed in the tournament. They are the better team in this game, but home court makes Texas the favorite.
  • Indiana will beat Michigan by 3.7 at home, Sunday March 5. After years of struggles with their shooting, Indiana is making 37.8% of their threes this season, 19th best in the nation. Expect a little regression, as Miller Kopp is making 46.2% from three, by far a career high.

NCAA tournament win probabilities – My interactive visual shows the probability for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. These numbers come from my points based college basketball team rankings, and the bracket is taken from ESPN on Friday.

Houston has the highest win probability, but a 2 seed UCLA has the second highest probability. Led by veterans Jamie Jaquez and Tiger Campbell, this team has won nine games in a row.

UCLA plays outstanding defense, as they rank first in my adjusted points per possession. My member numbers like UCLA by 3.1 points over Arizona, another national title contender, at home on Saturday.

College basketball humor – Fran McCaffery’s therapist told him not to yell at the referees. Instead, the Iowa coach did this.

After the stare down, Iowa came back from 10 down with 1:29 left in the game and beat Michigan State in overtime.

March Madness cheat sheet

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

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5-Nugget Saturday, February 25, 2023

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College basketball bet – Andy Molitor of Betsperts notes that Towson is on the second leg of a brutal road trip to end the season at North Carolina Wilmington. Even though Thursday’s game at Charleston didn’t impact the standings, Towson played to win and didn’t cut back on minutes for key players.

While North Carolina Wilmington has lost production from last season, Andy likes the talent of small forward Trazarien White. In addition, they are good at getting to the foul line and making those foul shots.

Andy sees value in North Carolina Wilmington +2.5, a number available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning. This also agrees with The Power Rank’s member numbers, which see this game as a pick.

For more of Andy’s insights into college basketball, check out the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists – In The Logic of Sports Betting, authors Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow offer a key but counterintuitive tip: look for a weak market first, then do your handicapping.

Betscope makes finding the market easy. For example, here are two available bets on Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists in Denver at Memphis:

  • Under 47.5, +110, DraftKings
  • Over 47.5, -110, BetMGM

This is an example of a no hold market. You could bet $100 at DK and $110 at MGM and end up with your original $210 no matter what happens.

With no take by the sports books, take your best guess at the sharp side. Jokic has averaged 46.5 for points, rebounds and assists this season, and the under is often the sharp side on NBA props. I see value on the under at DraftKings.

However, you might think the Joker goes crazy and goes over. Either way, use Betscope to find these no hold markets for NBA, NHL and college basketball games.

College basketball predictions – This is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank that you can also deduce from my college basketball rankings.

  • Purdue will beat Indiana by 6.5 points at home. 7’4″ Zach Edey has had an outstanding season, but one might question the talent that surrounds this big man. Purdue started the season outside the top 25 in the preseason AP poll, a surprising predictor of NCAA tournament games.
  • Alabama will beat Arkansas by 6.1 points at home. Alabama star freshman Brandon Miller might have legal trouble in his future. Despite media outrage over this, Alabama let Miller play on Thursday night, and he dropped 41 points in an overtime win over South Carolina.
  • Gonzaga will beat St. Mary’s by 4.9 points at home. This game features Gonzaga’s 2nd ranked offense by my adjusted points per possession against the 6th best defense of St. Mary’s.

Ultimate guide to college basketball analytics – Ever wonder how Ken Pomeroy calculates his college basketball rankings? Or maybe how he comes up with his predictions for each game?

Do matchups matter in college basketball? For example, Alabama’s only weakness on offense is turnovers. Are they at a significant disadvantage against a team like Tennessee that forces a lot of turnovers?

I provide a detailed answer to these questions in my ultimate guide to college basketball analytics. If you find it useful, please share with a friend as we head into March.

NFL humor – “But I have to believe any of us, even you (Kirk), can win.” So many hilarious lines in this episode of Gridiron Heights.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of The Logic of Sports Betting mentioned in this article. Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow lay out all the basic concepts you need to become a winner.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”