Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL player prop – Professional bettor Robbie Peterson, who goes by @ClosingDime on X, uses mathematical models to attack NFL player props. This week, he sees value in Detroit WR Jameson Williams.

Robbie’s model predicts 61.5 receiving yards for Williams, as he faces a bad Arizona defense that has allowed 247.5 passing yards per game. Williams has big play ability, which means he may only need one or two deep receptions to go over.

There is value in Jameson Williams over 51.5 receiving yards, and Robbie would bet it at -131 or better. Follow ClosingDime on X as he often gives out his bets. He also runs BetSharpMoney, a site with a host of free betting software tools and paid services.

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, NFL Monday night – The Rams might only have a 2-2 record but they excel in the underlying metrics.

For example, Matt Stafford has the 4th best passing success rate among starting QB after my mathematical adjustments for opposing defenses. He has done this despite missing star WR Puka Nacua for two games.

The Buffalo pass defense had been awful, as they rank 29th in my adjusted passing success rate. In addition, they may be without key players like DT Ed Oliver, CB Dee Alford and CB Christian Benford.

My member model has Los Angeles Rams by 5.2, and they have a much better roster than the Bills. There is value in Rams -3, -120 available at DraftKings.

UCLA at Oregon, College Football Week 6 – My member model has Oregon by 10.5 at home, right on top of the market. All good, right?

Well, there is usually an adjustment when an NFL caliber QB like Dante Moore will not play. However, Dylan Raiola came in for Oregon against USC and played better than Moore this season. Raiola started two years at Nebraska and presumably could have transferred as the starter to another program.

If you’re looking to bet this game, Bud Elliott of the Cover 3 podcast likes Oregon -11. He still has questions about UCLA’s defense and thinks Oregon can get some explosive plays.

The Georgia pass offense – I had Georgia overrated at 3rd in the preseason AP poll because of a lack of talent in the receiver room. However, their pass offense ranks a very solid 10th in my adjusted yards per pass attempt.

I’m still not sure they have answered the question at receiver, as no player has been targeted 20+ times through five games. Running back Dwight Phillips Jr. led them in receiving yards in their last game.

Now, they face an Alabama secondary with multiple players who project as 2027 NFL draft picks. Sophomore CB Dijon Lee Jr. is not eligible to enter the draft but has performed as well as any of these prospects according to PFF grades. It will be a stiff test for Georgia QB Gunner Stockton and the pass offense, and hurricane conditions will not help.

My model has Alabama by 0.6 points at home.

NFL humor – “Whose fault could this possibly be?” Brandon Carney breaks down a tumultuous week for the Philadelphia Eagles in :36 and rightly assigns the blame.

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5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

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Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Mississippi State at Alabama, College Football Week 5 – QB Kamario Taylor has Mississippi State off to a blazing 4-0 start, and this makes their road trip to Tuscaloosa much watch college football.

Korey Betts, who runs the excellent College Football Betting 900 podcast, likes both teams to score a lot but especially Alabama. They score touchdowns on 46% of their drives and score 3.7 points on average. Given his projections for number of drives, Korey projects 40 points for Alabama.

Korey likes Alabama over 33.5 points with the best price of -113 at Caesars. Follow Korey Betts on X and check the College Football Betting 900 podcast which posts four times a week.

NFL interception prop – Indianapolis and Washington travel to London to face off in the early Sunday NFL game. It seems like Marcus Mariota will start again for Washington, but the betting value shows up for Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones.

My interception model is based on how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation, and Jones has a long term bad ball rate of 13.5%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%. My model gives a 55.0% chance Jones throws a pick against Washington.

There is value in Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at certain sports books such as +105 at BetMGM. Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my interception props at 12:30pm Eastern today.

College football predictions – Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

• Michigan will beat Minnesota by 8.2 points on the road – Despite the loss to Iowa, Michigan QB Bryce Underwood played an exceptional game (except for the interception) against probably an elite defense. The market has moved towards Michigan at -6 despite potential key absences like edge John Henry Daley and WR Andrew Marsh.
• Alabama will beat Mississippi State by 6.0 points on the road – The market has moved slightly towards Mississippi State at +5.5. An upset win for the Bulldogs would put QB Kamario Taylor at the top of the Heisman race.
• Ohio State will beat Iowa by 12.0 points on the road – Ohio State had issues stopping the run against Texas and Illinois, and they rank 113th in my adjusted rush success rate allowed for now. I discussed how 3 Big Ten contenders have disappointed in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

How to be clutch – I try to avoid the self help genre. The world doesn’t need more bro, work harder content from an influencer.

However, when it comes to performance in high leverage moments, Tom Brady has the credentials with 7 Super Bowl wins in 10 appearances. His latest newsletter won’t shock you, but his authority makes it worth a read.

NFL humor – The Amazon broadcast caught Aaron Rodgers actually saying “What the f*@k, call it” to his coach Mike McCarthy, although you have to read lips to understand his reply.

Aaron Rodgers: "What the F*CK, CALL IT"

Mike McCarthy: "F*cking Asshole"

LMFAO pic.twitter.com/hUTBK5Tfxx

— Max (@FantasyFBallAZ) October 2, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL interception prop – Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence seems about league average in turnover prevention. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has a 2.4% interception rate, close to the 2.2% NFL average.

When I predict interceptions, I look not only at interceptions but also passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on a pass. Bad balls are the sum of interceptions and passes defended, and bad ball rate gives how often a QB throws the football into dangerous situations.

Lawrence has a bad ball rate of 14.9%, one of the worst in the NFL. My interception model gives a 57.1% that he throws a pick against New England. There is value in Trevor Lawrence over 0.5 interceptions at -114, available at FanDuel.

I use a higher threshold for interception props for members of The Power Rank, and these get sent out at 11am Eastern every Saturday.

NFL passing yards prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Connor Allen of 4for4 Bets made the case against Marcus Mariota. The Washington back up quarterback faces an uphill battle against an excellent Seattle defense.

Seattle held New England QB Drake Maye to 178 passing yards when he had WR AJ Brown for part of the game. In addition, Washington won’t have two starters on the offensive line (Sam Cosmi, Laremy Tunsil) against Seattle.

Connor likes Marcus Mariota under 173.5 passing yards, available at BetMGM, despite the low yardage number. Follow Connor Allen for all of his NFL player prop insights.

The Detroit Lions offense with and without Ben Johnson – Ben Johnson’s Chicago offense exploded for 59 points in Week 1. It made me wonder how the Lions have performed since the offensive guru left after the 2024 season.

While Detroit’s offense peaked in 2024, the last season with Johnson as coordinator, the 2025 offense rated about the same as the 2022 and 2023 offenses with Johnson. This holds no matter what simple or advanced metrics you use.

I also included some analysis on head coach Dan Campbell’s play calling last season after he took over from his OC John Morton. Catch the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show on Spotify, YouTube or The Power Rank.

Analytics driven story telling – I had never looked into the NFL’s passing rating statistic until I was asked to by audio producer Harry Swartout. On Echo of the Whistle, he uses an NFL game in which both quarterbacks had a 0.0 rating to tell a rich data driven story on passer rating.

Harry contrasts my data driven approach with thoughts of Nathan Peterman, the NFL quarterback most famous for throwing five interceptions in a half of a game. And that game wasn’t the one in which he earned a 0.0 passer rating.

This 30 minute podcast episode of Echo of the Whistle is an awesome companion for that next car ride.

NFL humor – Injuries to young quarterbacks stripped Week 2 out of a lot of joy. At least we can laugh at contrasting the exits of New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart (done for the year with a knee injury) with Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (probably back in a few weeks with a hamstring pull). This video is worth 15 seconds of your time.

You’ll never guess which quarterback is out for the season pic.twitter.com/dvFNzGS4k4

— Payne (@PayneInsider) September 23, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Minnesota at Chicago, NFL Week 2 – Chicago stunned the NFL world with 59 points in their Week 1 game against Carolina. While this performance suggests the over in Week 2 for Chicago, Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports has other ideas.

With the Week 1 performance, Bob has the Bears as the 3rd best offense right now. However, they have a tough matchup against a Minnesota defense that has been excellent under coordinator Brian Flores. In addition, QB Carson Wentz is a downgrade from Kyler Murray for Minnesota.

Bob projects 44 points in this game with winds up to 19 miles per hour and rain in Chicago. There is value in Minnesota at Chicago under 48.5 points, and Bob would lean this way down to 47.5 points.

Bob has beating the football markets for almost four decades, and I highly recommend checking out his services at Dr. Bob Sports.

College football bet – Mike Riordan is a long time professional bettor who works with Right Angle Sports. When asked whether Clemson sucks, he gave an interesting answer on A Numbers Game, a VSIN show.

If you think Clemson sucks, then Georgia Southern, a team that only lost by 15 to Clemson, should be really bad. In addition, Georgia Southern has an awful run defense that Jacksonville State should be able to exploit this week.

While not an official RAS release, Mike said that he bet Jacksonville State against Georgia Southern, and my member numbers at The Power Rank have Jacksonville State by 6.2. There is value in Jacksonville State -3.

LSU QB Sam Leavitt – On Wednesday night, LSU announced that QB Sam Leavitt was doubtful to play at Ole Miss on Saturday. This came as a surprise, as no one had mentioned the injury earlier in the week. It seemed like LSU coach Lane Kiffin might be playing games.

The news on Leavitt moved the market from LSU -3 to -2.5, a small move given the impact of an elite QB like Leavitt. It seemed like the markets doubted the news.

In a not so shocking twist, Leavitt went from probable by Thursday night to off the injury report by Saturday morning. Most sports books are back to LSU -3, although FanDuel has held firm at -2.5, -122 as of Saturday morning. My member numbers have LSU by 3.9 points at Ole Miss in what should be a thrilling game on Saturday night.

The brilliance of Mike Macdonald – Great coaches put their players in a position to succeed. In some cases, the data gives a clear signal on which areas a coach excels.

On the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show, I dig into the data on how pass rushers are better under Mike Macdonald than other coaches, a phenomena seen in both Seattle as head coach and Baltimore as defensive coordinator.

College football humor – If only this were the official Ole Miss hype video. No one pisses people off quite like LSU coach Lane Kiffin (watch the first 22 second of this).

Don’t run @Lane_Kiffin pic.twitter.com/Xu2LIMSR57

— Durag Rebel (@DuragRebel) September 17, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL player prop – Robbie Peterson is a professional bettor who goes by ClosingDime on X. For this NFL opening weekend, he is fading Justin Jefferson of Minnesota.

Jefferson struggled to end last season as he failed to have 74+ receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games. Now he enters this season with the uncertainty around new QB Kyler Murray. ClosingDime likes Jefferson to see a high volume of targets but his model gives a median receiving yards of 64.

ClosingDime likes Justin Jefferson under 73.5 receiving yards, good to -130. Follow ClosingDime on X for all of his insights. He also runs BetSharpMoney, a site with a host of free betting software tools and paid services.

NFL interception prop – Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield got his new contract, making him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL. Having a 2.0% interception rate last season probably helped him in his negotiations (NFL average was 2.2%).

However, interception rate is not a good way to predict future interceptions. My interception model looks at how often a QB throws the football into dangerous situations, which includes both picks and passes defended. Based on this metric, Mayfield is the second worst behind Kirk Cousins among NFL quarterbacks with more than 700 attempts the past 3 seasons.

My model gives a 57.5% chance that Mayfield throws an interception. There is value in Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions, -114 available on the FanDuel app.

The Unabated line – Unabated uses historical data track which sports books have the most accurate spread and total numbers in specific sports. They combine the most accurate books to come up with the Unabated line, a market consensus.

Here are some college football results as of Saturday morning.

• Michigan +4.5 vs Oklahoma. The market had Michigan +5.5 most of the week, but the sharper books have moved this back towards Michigan despite how awful they looked last week.
• Alabama -9.5 at Kentucky. Most sports books have a double digit spread as the Crimson Tide go on the road for the first time in the SEC.
• Texas -1.5 vs Ohio State. This number mostly reflects the consensus, although BetMGM has bounced between Texas -2 and -2.5 on Saturday morning.

Unabated has an amazing suite of software betting tools.

Is NFL preseason data still predictive? A few years ago, Kostya Medvedovsky, the creator of the DARKO NBA player projection system, made the case for using NFL preseason statistics in regular season projections.

Based on data from 2001 through 2019, Kostya found that using point differential in the preseason along with market win totals made for better win total predictions than the market alone. The most impressive results came from using the first three of four preseason games (starters tend to sit the last game). When the preseason data moved the win total prediction by a half win or more, betting on the change from preseason data resulted in a 63% win rate.

However, the NFL has changed in recent seasons, as they have played only 3 preseason games since 2021. Also, starters tend to play less in this era. Using the first two preseason games, the win percentage has dropped to 56%. In addition, the projections with preseason data and market win totals do not show a clear improvement over market win totals alone.

College football humor – Remarkable statistic: Prior to Western Michigan, college football teams were 110,352 – 0 when leading after the end of regulation, dating back to 1869.

Now, teams are 110,352-1 after Michigan’s hail mary over Western Michigan last week.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”