2016 NBA Playoffs

2016 NBA Finals series win probability

For the NBA playoffs, I developed rankings that use both data from games and the markets. These numbers give the following win probability for the finals.

Golden State has a 75.3 percent chance of winning the series.

This number has changed since the start of the playoffs.

Back on April 16th, the Warriors had just won a record 73 games during the regular season. My numbers said the Warriors were 4.5 points better than the Cavs on a neutral court, which implies a 83.4% series win probability.

Since then, Steph Curry got hurt, and perhaps hasn’t played up to his MVP form since his return. The Warriors struggled in a seven game series against Oklahoma City, getting outscored by 7 points during the series.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has played exceptional during the playoffs, as they have lost only two games (both in Toronto). Shooting 43.4% from three compared with 36.3% during the regular season has helped.

Now, the numbers imply Golden State is three points better on a neutral court than Cleveland, which gives the 75.3% win probability.

As of Tuesday morning (May 31st), the markets imply a 65.5% win probability for Golden State.

NBA series win probabilities for the 2016 conference finals

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

These numbers come from rankings that use data from games and the markets. To see my numbers for the entire playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

Oklahoma City vs Golden State.
Golden State has a 78.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Toronto vs Cleveland.
Cleveland has a 75.1 percent chance of winning the series.

The numbers point to a Golden State versus Cleveland rematch of the NBA finals.

To see update numbers on these series probabilities, check out the predictions page.

How does Steph Curry’s injury impact the Warriors series win probability?

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

Steph Curry sprained his knee and will miss the next two weeks of the playoffs.

How will this impact the Warriors, the clear championship favorite with Curry? We can estimate his impact by looking at the closing spread against Houston with and without him.

For example, the markets made Golden State a 3.5 point favorite at Houston in Game 3 without Curry. This moved to 8.5 points in Game 4 with Curry. Let’s use this to estimate Curry means 5 points per game to the Warriors.

With Steph Curry

With Curry, my numbers give these series win probabilities against the Warriors next two opponents.

Los Angeles Clippers: Warriors have a 92.2 percent chance of winning the series.
Portland: Warriors have a 95.1 percent chance of winning the series.

Unless the sky falls in, the Warriors should win these series with Curry.

The road gets tougher in the conference finals, but the Warriors should win.

San Antonio: Warriors have a 69.5 percent chance of winning the series.
Oklahoma City: Warriors have a 80.0 percent chance of winning the series.

Without Steph Curry

Without Curry, the story dramatically changes.

Los Angeles Clippers: Warriors have a 69.6 percent chance of winning the series.
Portland: Warriors have a 77.7 percent chance of winning the series.

Now, Golden State is vulnerable against either the Clippers or Blazers, even though they should still win.

In the conference finals, the Warriors will no longer be the favorite.

San Antonio: Warriors have a 33.9 percent chance of winning the series.
Oklahoma City: Warriors have a 46.7 percent chance of winning the series.

NBA championship probabilities

What about the chance of winning an NBA title? With Curry, my numbers give the Warriors a 59.0% chance, which hasn’t changed much since the beginning of the playoffs. Without Curry, their championship probability drops to 16.2%.

Duh, the Warriors aren’t as good without Curry. However, the numbers and market data put in perspective the importance of the NBA’s reigning Most Valuable Player.

2016 NBA championship win probabilities

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

My championship probabilities come from combining rankings that use margin of victory in games and closing point spreads in the markets. In these type of ensemble rankings, the aggregation of different methods tends to cancel out the small mistakes of either method, leading to better predictions.

These numbers come from before the start of the 2016 playoffs.

1. Golden State, 58.0%.
2. San Antonio, 20.1%.
3. Cleveland, 10.7%.
4. Oklahoma City, 5.0%.
5. Toronto, 2.0%.
6. Atlanta, 1.6%.
7. Boston, 0.7%.
8. Los Angeles Clippers, 0.5%.
9. Charlotte, 0.5%.
10. Indiana, 0.4%.
11. Miami, 0.4%.
12. Portland, 0.1%.
13. Detroit, 0.1%.
14. Houston, 0.0%.
15. Dallas, 0.0%.
16. Memphis, 0.0%.

These win probabilities come from the futures markets.

1. Golden State, 53.5%.
2. San Antonio, 16.7%.
3. Cleveland, 16.0%.
4. Oklahoma City, 5.0%.
5. Los Angeles Clippers, 2.0%.
6. Toronto, 1.6%.
7. Miami, 1.1%.
8. Boston, 1.0%.
9. Atlanta, 0.8%.
10. Charlotte, 0.6%.
11. Portland, 0.5%.
12. Indiana, 0.4%.
13. Houston, 0.3%.
14. Detroit, 0.3%.
15. Dallas, 0.2%.
16. Memphis, 0.1%.

There was confusion on Twitter last week about these odds, so let me explain how I came up with them.

Before the playoffs started, I grabbed the futures odds for each team to win the NBA title. These odds translate to a probability for each team.

I find the sum of probabilities for all teams, and then I divide each team’s probability by this normalization factor. This gives an implied probability that factors in the large vig taken by the house (normalization factor was 1.25).

The futures markets like LeBron James and Cavaliers more than the numbers do. This comes at the expense of the Spurs.

2016 NBA playoff series win probabilities for the first round

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

These numbers come from rankings that use data from games and the markets. To see my numbers for the entire playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

Western Conference

Houston (8) vs Golden State (1).
Golden State has a 96.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Portland (5) vs Los Angeles Clippers (4).
Los Angeles Clippers have a 64.8 percent chance of winning the series.

Dallas (6) vs Oklahoma City (3).
Oklahoma City has a 90.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Memphis (7) vs San Antonio (2).
San Antonio has a 98.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Eastern Conference

Detroit (8) vs Cleveland (1).
Cleveland has a 84.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Boston (5) vs Atlanta (4).
Atlanta has a 60.5 percent chance of winning the series.

Charlotte (6) vs Miami (3).
Miami has a 50.8 percent chance of winning the series.

Indiana (7) vs Toronto (2).
Toronto has a 63.5 percent chance of winning the series.