For the NBA playoffs, I developed rankings that use both data from games and the markets. These numbers give the following win probability for the finals.
Golden State has a 75.3 percent chance of winning the series.
This number has changed since the start of the playoffs.
Back on April 16th, the Warriors had just won a record 73 games during the regular season. My numbers said the Warriors were 4.5 points better than the Cavs on a neutral court, which implies a 83.4% series win probability.
Since then, Steph Curry got hurt, and perhaps hasn’t played up to his MVP form since his return. The Warriors struggled in a seven game series against Oklahoma City, getting outscored by 7 points during the series.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has played exceptional during the playoffs, as they have lost only two games (both in Toronto). Shooting 43.4% from three compared with 36.3% during the regular season has helped.
Now, the numbers imply Golden State is three points better on a neutral court than Cleveland, which gives the 75.3% win probability.
As of Tuesday morning (May 31st), the markets imply a 65.5% win probability for Golden State.
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