How does Steph Curry’s injury impact the Warriors series win probability?

Steph Curry sprained his knee and will miss the next two weeks of the playoffs.

How will this impact the Warriors, the clear championship favorite with Curry? We can estimate his impact by looking at the closing spread against Houston with and without him.

For example, the markets made Golden State a 3.5 point favorite at Houston in Game 3 without Curry. This moved to 8.5 points in Game 4 with Curry. Let’s use this to estimate Curry means 5 points per game to the Warriors.

With Steph Curry

With Curry, my numbers give these series win probabilities against the Warriors next two opponents.

• Los Angeles Clippers: Warriors have a 92.2 percent chance of winning the series.
• Portland: Warriors have a 95.1 percent chance of winning the series.

Unless the sky falls in, the Warriors should win these series with Curry.

The road gets tougher in the conference finals, but the Warriors should win.

• San Antonio: Warriors have a 69.5 percent chance of winning the series.
• Oklahoma City: Warriors have a 80.0 percent chance of winning the series.

Without Steph Curry

Without Curry, the story dramatically changes.

• Los Angeles Clippers: Warriors have a 69.6 percent chance of winning the series.
• Portland: Warriors have a 77.7 percent chance of winning the series.

Now, Golden State is vulnerable against either the Clippers or Blazers, even though they should still win.

In the conference finals, the Warriors will no longer be the favorite.

• San Antonio: Warriors have a 33.9 percent chance of winning the series.
• Oklahoma City: Warriors have a 46.7 percent chance of winning the series.

NBA championship probabilities

What about the chance of winning an NBA title? With Curry, my numbers give the Warriors a 59.0% chance, which hasn’t changed much since the beginning of the playoffs. Without Curry, their championship probability drops to 16.2%.

Duh, the Warriors aren’t as good without Curry. However, the numbers and market data put in perspective the importance of the NBA’s reigning Most Valuable Player.