Win probabilities for the 2017 NCAA Tournament

In your pool, the choice of champion is the most important choice that you’ll make. In the most common scoring system, the correct pick of champion earns 32 points, while that 12 over 5 upset nets you 1 point.

I have all my tournament win probabilities over on the interactive visual. However, it’s difficult to sort the tourney win probabilities from the other numbers.

Based on my college basketball team rankings (margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule), here are the tourney win probabilities from the visual.

1. Gonzaga, 31.5%.
2. Villanova, 14.4%.
3. North Carolina, 10.5%.
4. West Virginia, 6.6%.
5. Kansas, 6.5%.
6. Kentucky, 4.9%.
7. Louisville, 3.2%.
8. Duke, 2.8%.
9. Baylor, 1.8%.
10. Oregon, 1.8%.
11. Florida State, 1.7%.
12. Purdue, 1.6%.
13. Butler, 1.6%.
14. UCLA, 1.6%.
15. Iowa State, 1.5%.
16. Florida, 1.4%.
17. Virginia, 1.3%.
18. Wichita State, 1.1%.
19. Arizona, 0.9%.
20. SMU, 0.8%.
21. Cincinnati, 0.4%.
22. Wisconsin, 0.4%.
23. Michigan, 0.3%.
24. Notre Dame, 0.3%.
25. Creighton, 0.3%.

If you think Gonzaga has too high a chance at 31.5%, you would be correct. I’ll be discussing how to fix this prediction later this week.

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