Based on ESPN’s bracket projection, I calculated the win probability for each team through each round of the tournament. These calculations depend on my college basketball team rankings.
You can play with the results in this interactive visual.
Despite their loss to BYU, Gonzaga still had the largest win probability at almost 33%. No other team cracked 10%.
There are many things to like about Gonzaga. They’re ranked 5th and 1st in my offense and defense numbers respectively, which come from points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule.
However, they couldn’t crack the top 10 in either preseason poll, a surprisingly powerful predictor of tournament success. This isn’t one of Mark Few’s most talented teams, as it’s unlikely any player gets drafted in the first round of the NBA draft.
I like this Zags teams, but not at 33% to win this tournament.
How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool
You want to win your March Madness pool, right?
You’ve come across this site, The Power Rank. A very good start.
However, you can’t just fill out your bracket with the most probable team in every game. For some pools, you need to think contrarian.
To learn more, click here.