THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Accuracy of The Power Rank’s baseball predictions in 2015

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

worn-out_baseballOn April 23rd, 2015, I started posting a win probability for every MLB game. These predictions had two components:

  • team rankings that take run differential and adjust for strength of schedule
  • ensemble preseason rankings

From April 23rd to May 28th, 2015, the team with the higher win probability won 252 of 487 games for win percentage of 51.7%. The predictions did well for awhile, but they got weaker as the season progressed.

On May 29th, I changed the methodology behind the baseball predictions. Instead of actual run differential as an input to my ranking algorithm, I used an expected run differential according to the Base Runs formula.

For every team that hits 115 doubles and 58 home runs at this point in the season, some score 330 runs while others, like the Detroit Tigers, score 293. The higher scoring teams tend to cluster their hits due to better clutch hitting.

However, my research shows that good and bad cluster luck is not sustainable. Teams with extremes in cluster luck tend to regress to the level of run production given by the Base Runs formula.

With these new team rankings based on expected runs, the predictions have performed much better. From May 29th through June 21st, the team with the higher win probability has won 187 of 335 games for a win percentage of 55.8%.

For comparison, the team favored in the betting markets has won 181 of 335 games for a win percentage of 54.0%. The markets get half a win for offering the same odds on both teams.

The markets will catch up soon. They always do. However, this is a pretty accuracy for predictions that do not account for injuries.

Check the predictions page for daily updates to this record.

Filed Under: Accuracy of The Power Rank's predictions, Baseball analytics

Trackbacks

  1. The accuracy of The Power Rank’s 2014 college football predictions says:
    August 25, 2015 at 10:50 am

    […] and I’m making a full effort to track and report on all of my predictions. It started with baseball this spring, and it will continue through football and […]

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member