The predictions page now has a win probability for every baseball game.
However, these team rankings don’t make much sense in April. The rankings that include games through April 23rd, 2015 had the Mets as the best team in baseball, three runs better than the average MLB team.
For the first two months of the season, I’ll combine preseason expectations with these team rankings based on the current season. You can always find the most current rankings at the MLB rankings page, which gets updated daily.
To account for starting pitching, I use the ZiPS projections from FanGraphs. Dan Szymborski developed these pitcher projection based on 4 years of data and the ideas of defense independent pitching statistics.
The projections didn’t do that well yesterday. The team with greater than 50% win probability won 4 of 12 games.
However, this small sample size doesn’t worry me too much. Highly touted teams like the Nationals and Dodgers both lost yesterday. We’ll see how the predictions do over a larger sample of games.
Thank you to everyone who asked me to get these predictions up. Check the prediction page daily for latest.