College Football Predictions, Week 10, November 5, 2011

This week, we transition to using rankings that only use games from this year. It great affects teams like Auburn and Houston, which we discuss in this week’s update on national championship probabilities.

Alabama (1) will beat LSU (2) by 3.8 at home. LSU has a 0.41 chance of beating Alabama.

Stanford (3) will beat Oregon State (74) by 28.2 on the road. Oregon State has a 0.07 chance of beating Stanford.

Oklahoma State (4) will beat Kansas State (29) by 20.8 at home. Kansas State has a 0.12 chance of beating Oklahoma State.

Oregon (5) will beat Washington (41) by 17.3 on the road. Washington has a 0.17 chance of beating Oregon.

Boise State (6) will beat UNLV (113) by 34.8 on the road. UNLV has a 0.04 chance of beating Boise State.

Oklahoma (7) will beat Texas A&M (10) by 9.3 at home. Texas A&M has a 0.30 chance of beating Oklahoma.

Wisconsin (8) will beat Purdue (66) by 23.2 at home. Purdue has a 0.10 chance of beating Wisconsin.

Arizona State (9) will beat UCLA (58) by 12.5 on the road. UCLA has a 0.24 chance of beating Arizona State.

Michigan (11) will beat Iowa (48) by 7.7 on the road. Iowa has a 0.33 chance of beating Michigan.

Nebraska (12) will beat Northwestern (73) by 18.6 at home. Northwestern has a 0.15 chance of beating Nebraska.

Michigan State (13) will beat Minnesota (88) by 22.2 at home. Minnesota has a 0.11 chance of beating Michigan State.

Arkansas (14) will beat South Carolina (19) by 4.5 at home. South Carolina has a 0.40 chance of beating Arkansas.

USC (15) will beat Colorado (99) by 20.9 on the road. Colorado has a 0.12 chance of beating USC.

Missouri (16) will beat Baylor (45) by 6.6 on the road. Baylor has a 0.35 chance of beating Missouri.

Notre Dame (17) will beat Wake Forest (69) by 11.0 on the road. Wake Forest has a 0.26 chance of beating Notre Dame.

Florida State (20) will beat Boston College (91) by 14.8 on the road. Boston College has a 0.20 chance of beating Florida State.

Ohio State (21) will beat Indiana (105) by 26.0 at home. Indiana has a 0.08 chance of beating Ohio State.

Georgia (22) will beat New Mexico State (101) by 24.5 at home. New Mexico State has a 0.09 chance of beating Georgia.

Houston (23) will beat UAB (115) by 22.3 on the road. UAB has a 0.11 chance of beating Houston.

Texas (31) will beat Texas Tech (25) by 1.4 at home. Texas Tech has a 0.47 chance of beating Texas.

Miami (FL) (26) will beat Duke (86) by 16.9 at home. Duke has a 0.17 chance of beating Miami (FL).

Southern Miss (27) will beat East Carolina (96) by 13.5 on the road. East Carolina has a 0.22 chance of beating Southern Miss.

TCU (32) will beat Wyoming (93) by 12.0 on the road. Wyoming has a 0.25 chance of beating TCU.

Toledo (34) will beat Northern Illinois (78) by 13.9 at home. Northern Illinois has a 0.21 chance of beating Toledo.

West Virginia (36) will beat Louisville (65) by 9.2 at home. Louisville has a 0.30 chance of beating West Virginia.

Florida (37) will beat Vanderbilt (47) by 5.9 at home. Vanderbilt has a 0.37 chance of beating Florida.

Cincinnati (39) will beat Pittsburgh (53) by 0.2 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 0.49 chance of beating Cincinnati.

North Carolina (40) will beat North Carolina State (82) by 6.2 on the road. North Carolina State has a 0.36 chance of beating North Carolina.

Rutgers (42) will beat South Florida (44) by 3.1 at home. South Florida has a 0.43 chance of beating Rutgers.

Tennessee (43) will beat Middle Tennessee State (106) by 19.2 at home. Middle Tennessee State has a 0.14 chance of beating Tennessee.

Arizona (46) will beat Utah (49) by 3.3 at home. Utah has a 0.42 chance of beating Arizona.

Tulsa (51) will beat UCF (83) by 4.4 on the road. UCF has a 0.40 chance of beating Tulsa.

Louisiana Tech (52) will beat Fresno State (81) by 3.9 on the road. Fresno State has a 0.41 chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

Temple (54) will beat Ohio (77) by 2.5 on the road. Ohio has a 0.44 chance of beating Temple.

Air Force (55) will beat Army (100) by 15.3 at home. Army has a 0.19 chance of beating Air Force.

Syracuse (56) will beat Connecticut (80) by 2.6 on the road. Connecticut has a 0.44 chance of beating Syracuse.

Virginia (57) will beat Maryland (75) by 0.4 on the road. Maryland has a 0.49 chance of beating Virginia.

San Diego State (60) will beat New Mexico (120) by 32.4 at home. New Mexico has a 0.05 chance of beating San Diego State.

California (62) will beat Washington State (61) by 2.6 at home. Washington State has a 0.44 chance of beating California.

Iowa State (63) will beat Kansas (110) by 16.8 at home. Kansas has a 0.17 chance of beating Iowa State.

Hawaii (64) will beat Utah State (68) by 3.9 at home. Utah State has a 0.41 chance of beating Hawaii.

SMU (67) will beat Tulane (117) by 22.2 at home. Tulane has a 0.11 chance of beating SMU.

Navy (70) will beat Troy (94) by 8.8 at home. Troy has a 0.30 chance of beating Navy.

Arkansas State (71) will beat Florida Atlantic (116) by 13.4 on the road. Florida Atlantic has a 0.22 chance of beating Arkansas State.

Louisiana Lafayette (72) will beat Louisiana Monroe (102) by 12.8 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 0.23 chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.

Kentucky (85) will beat Mississippi (79) by 2.1 at home. Mississippi has a 0.45 chance of beating Kentucky.

Florida International (84) will beat Western Kentucky (97) by 1.6 on the road. Western Kentucky has a 0.46 chance of beating Florida International.

San Jose State (89) will beat Idaho (98) by 6.0 at home. Idaho has a 0.36 chance of beating San Jose State.

Miami (OH) (90) will beat Akron (118) by 20.8 at home. Akron has a 0.12 chance of beating Miami (OH).

UTEP (95) will beat Rice (109) by 2.5 on the road. Rice has a 0.44 chance of beating UTEP.

Eastern Michigan (108) will beat Ball State (103) by 2.1 at home. Ball State has a 0.45 chance of beating Eastern Michigan.

Kent State (104) will beat Central Michigan (114) by 6.7 at home. Central Michigan has a 0.35 chance of beating Kent State.