THE POWER RANK

World Cup 2022 Predictions – Second Matches of Group Play

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These predictions come from world football/soccer rankings that take match results from the past five years and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions alone will not beat the market but can be a useful tool in handicapping.

Friday, November 25, 2022

Wales vs Iran – Wales has a 39.3% chance to win. Iran has a 31.0% chance to win. There is a 29.7% chance for a tie.

Qatar hosting Senegal – Qatar has a 41.5% chance to win. Senegal has a 33.2% chance to win. There is a 25.3% chance for a tie.

Netherlands vs Ecuador – Netherlands has a 60.8% chance to win. Ecuador has a 17.2% chance to win. There is a 22.0% chance for a tie.

England vs United States – England has a 51.9% chance to win. United States has a 19.9% chance to win. There is a 28.2% chance for a tie.

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Tunisia vs Australia – Tunisia has a 36.5% chance to win. Australia has a 36.6% chance to win. There is a 26.9% chance for a tie.

Poland vs Saudi Arabia – Poland has a 47.1% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 26.5% chance to win. There is a 26.4% chance for a tie.

France vs Denmark – France has a 44.4% chance to win. Denmark has a 27.8% chance to win. There is a 27.8% chance for a tie.

Argentina vs Mexico – Argentina has a 52.8% chance to win. Mexico has a 21.0% chance to win. There is a 26.2% chance for a tie.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Japan vs Costa Rica – Japan has a 52.6% chance to win. Costa Rica has a 21.6% chance to win. There is a 25.8% chance for a tie.

Belgium vs Morocco – Belgium has a 64.4% chance to win. Morocco has a 16.2% chance to win. There is a 19.4% chance for a tie.

Croatia vs Canada – Croatia has a 45.6% chance to win. Canada has a 31.6% chance to win. There is a 22.8% chance for a tie.

Spain vs Germany – Spain has a 48.0% chance to win. Germany has a 28.9% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Monday, November 28, 2022

Cameroon vs Serbia – Cameroon has a 21.7% chance to win. Serbia has a 53.7% chance to win. There is a 24.6% chance for a tie.

South Korea vs Ghana – South Korea has a 51.4% chance to win. Ghana has a 17.9% chance to win. There is a 30.7% chance for a tie.

Brazil vs Switzerland – Brazil has a 59.4% chance to win. Switzerland has a 15.7% chance to win. There is a 24.9% chance for a tie.

Portugal vs Uruguay – Portugal has a 48.7% chance to win. Uruguay has a 24.6% chance to win. There is a 26.7% chance for a tie.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

The Power Rank sports betting newsletter strives to be three things:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The primary focus is American football, but the newsletter will cover the World Cup over its duration. To sign up for this free service, enter your best email and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

World Cup 2022 Match Predictions – First Matches in Group Play

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These predictions come from world football/soccer rankings that take match results from the past five years and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions alone will not beat the market but can be a useful tool in handicapping.

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Qatar hosting Ecuador – Qatar has a 41.4% chance to win. Ecuador has a 34.2% chance to win. There is a 24.4% chance for a tie.

Monday, November 21, 2022

England vs Iran – England has a 60.3% chance to win. Iran has a 13.7% chance to win. There is a 26.0% chance for a tie.

Senegal vs Netherlands – Senegal has a 15.7% chance to win. Netherlands has a 62.0% chance to win. There is a 22.3% chance for a tie.

United States vs Wales – United States has a 38.3% chance to win. Wales has a 29.2% chance to win. There is a 32.5% chance for a tie.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Argentina vs Saudi Arabia – Argentina has a 68.8% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 9.7% chance to win. There is a 21.5% chance for a tie.

Denmark vs Tunisia – Denmark has a 63.1% chance to win. Tunisia has a 12.3% chance to win. There is a 24.6% chance for a tie.

Mexico vs Poland – Mexico has a 37.1% chance to win. Poland has a 36.2% chance to win. There is a 26.8% chance for a tie.

France vs Australia – France has a 66.5% chance to win. Australia has a 12.8% chance to win. There is a 20.6% chance for a tie.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Morocco vs Croatia – Morocco has a 28.0% chance to win. Croatia has a 48.0% chance to win. There is a 24.0% chance for a tie.

Germany vs Japan – Germany has a 45.6% chance to win. Japan has a 31.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Spain vs Costa Rica – Spain has a 71.9% chance to win. Costa Rica has a 8.3% chance to win. There is a 19.9% chance for a tie.

Belgium vs Canada – Belgium has a 62.0% chance to win. Canada has a 18.7% chance to win. There is a 19.3% chance for a tie.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Switzerland vs Cameroon – Switzerland has a 63.6% chance to win. Cameroon has a 13.2% chance to win. There is a 23.3% chance for a tie.

Uruguay vs South Korea – Uruguay has a 49.1% chance to win. South Korea has a 21.8% chance to win. There is a 29.1% chance for a tie.

Portugal vs Ghana – Portugal has a 79.4% chance to win. Ghana has a 3.7% chance to win. There is a 17.0% chance for a tie.

Brazil vs Serbia – Brazil has a 67.7% chance to win. Serbia has a 11.4% chance to win. There is a 20.9% chance for a tie.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

The Power Rank sports betting newsletter strives to be three things:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The primary focus is American football, but the newsletter will cover the World Cup over its duration. To sign up for this free service, enter your best email and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Ensemble win probabilities for World Cup 2022

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The biggest sporting event in the world starts on Sunday. To get you prepared, The Power Rank runs its own win probabilities for all 32 teams based on world football/soccer rankings that take match results and adjust for opponent based on a propriety algorithm.

Despite the sophistication of my predictive analytics, it is always more accurate to combine predictions from a number of accurate sources. The win probabilities below come from a combination of the markets, my numbers and a few other sources such as FiveThirtyEight.

Let’s take a look at the results for a few teams.

Brazil, 18.3% win probability, highest – There is no predictor, market, data or otherwise, that does not make Brazil the favorite. Despite all this talent, it’s still better than 4 in 5 that Brazil does not win the World Cup.

Argentina, 11.5% win probability, second highest – While the markets have Argentina as a strong second favorite, the data and analytics do not like them. My numbers at The Power Rank have Argentina with the 8th highest win probability, and FiveThirtyEight has them at 4th.

In addition, the player composite rankings from Twenty First Group and Transfer Markt also do not like Argentina, as both metrics rank the country 7th. Lionel Messi is still a great player, but he is now 35 years old and at the twilight of his career. 

Part of the belief in Argentina stems from a 1-0 win over Brazil in the Copa America final in the summer of 2021. However, Brazil dominated that match. Argentina might be the one team to fade in the markets.

England, 8.6% win probability, 5th highest – England never ranks that well as a team. In my rankings at The Power Rank, they rank 8th after an appearance in the final of Euro 2021. This is the highest they have been over the last decade. England has the 7th highest win probability by FiveThirtyEight, a model that is mostly team based.

However, England has top notch talent. Transfer Markt rates England as having the most valuable World Cup squad, and the metrics of Twenty First Group have them second behind only Brazil.

United States, 0.9% win probability, 15th highest – Don’t expect the US to win this international tournament. However, if they beat Wales, they should emerge from Group B along with England.

However, do not discount Iran, the 32nd best team in my rankings. Iran has Mehdi Taremi, an excellent goal scorer for FC Porto, a top team in Portugal and regular Champions League participant.

Become a member of The Power Rank

While you can check out the win probability for all 32 teams over at The Power Rank, only members of The Power Rank get access to all of these ensemble win probabilities.

These more accurate numbers give you the best chance to win any World Cup pool. In addition, I provide my advice on how to win your pool (hint: it’s a lot like how to win a different tournament pool that happens in March).

In addition, members get access to:

  • College football and NFL spread and total predictions
  • College basketball spread predictions, available the day before the games get played
  • My research into American football, such as on home and rest advantage

To learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank, click here.

World Cup 2022 win probabilities

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These win probabilities start with my world football/soccer rankings that take goals scored and adjust for opponents with my proprietary algorithm. More important matches get more weight, e.g. World Cup matches get four times the weight of a friendly.

Based on these rankings, the World Cup gets simulated 50,000 times to produces these win probabilities.

  1. Brazil, 20.7%
  2. Belgium, 11.9%
  3. France, 10.9%
  4. England, 7.5%
  5. Spain, 7.3%
  6. Netherlands, 6.9%
  7. Portugal, 6.8%
  8. Argentina, 6.2%
  9. Denmark, 5.1%
  10. Germany, 2.5%
  11. Switzerland, 2.3%
  12. Uruguay, 1.9%
  13. Croatia, 1.7%
  14. United States, 1.2%
  15. Poland, 0.9%
  16. Japan, 0.8%
  17. Qatar, 0.8%
  18. Mexico, 0.8%
  19. Canada, 0.6%
  20. Wales, 0.6%
  21. Serbia, 0.5%
  22. Ecuador, 0.4%
  23. Morocco, 0.4%
  24. Senegal, 0.3%
  25. Iran, 0.3%
  26. South Korea, 0.2%
  27. Australia, 0.2%
  28. Tunisia, 0.1%
  29. Saudi Arabia, 0.1%
  30. Costa Rica, 0.0%
  31. Cameroon, 0.0%
  32. Ghana, 0.0%

My numbers have loved Belgium over the past decade. However, they will not live up to these predictions if forward Romelu Lukaku does not return from injury. He has been included on the squad but will not be ready for the group stage.

The markets have Argentina as the second favorite after Brazil, but my numbers disagree. While Argentina beat Brazil in the Copa America final in 2021, they have not shown the consistency over a five year window of matches and are 9th in my world rankings.

The United States is a long shot. While most think that their first match against Wales will determine whether they make it out of the group, do not discount Iran. They might be my lowest ranked team in Group B but are a respectable 33rd in my world rankings (second best among worst teams in a group).

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

The Power Rank sports betting newsletter strives to be three things:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The primary focus is American football, but the newsletter will cover the World Cup over its duration. To sign up for this free service, enter your best email and click on “Sign up now!”