These win probabilities start with my world football/soccer rankings that take goals scored and adjust for opponents with my proprietary algorithm. More important matches get more weight, e.g. World Cup matches get four times the weight of a friendly.
Based on these rankings, the World Cup gets simulated 50,000 times to produces these win probabilities.
- Brazil, 20.7%
- Belgium, 11.9%
- France, 10.9%
- England, 7.5%
- Spain, 7.3%
- Netherlands, 6.9%
- Portugal, 6.8%
- Argentina, 6.2%
- Denmark, 5.1%
- Germany, 2.5%
- Switzerland, 2.3%
- Uruguay, 1.9%
- Croatia, 1.7%
- United States, 1.2%
- Poland, 0.9%
- Japan, 0.8%
- Qatar, 0.8%
- Mexico, 0.8%
- Canada, 0.6%
- Wales, 0.6%
- Serbia, 0.5%
- Ecuador, 0.4%
- Morocco, 0.4%
- Senegal, 0.3%
- Iran, 0.3%
- South Korea, 0.2%
- Australia, 0.2%
- Tunisia, 0.1%
- Saudi Arabia, 0.1%
- Costa Rica, 0.0%
- Cameroon, 0.0%
- Ghana, 0.0%
My numbers have loved Belgium over the past decade. However, they will not live up to these predictions if forward Romelu Lukaku does not return from injury. He has been included on the squad but will not be ready for the group stage.
The markets have Argentina as the second favorite after Brazil, but my numbers disagree. While Argentina beat Brazil in the Copa America final in 2021, they have not shown the consistency over a five year window of matches and are 9th in my world rankings.
The United States is a long shot. While most think that their first match against Wales will determine whether they make it out of the group, do not discount Iran. They might be my lowest ranked team in Group B but are a respectable 33rd in my world rankings (second best among worst teams in a group).
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