The biggest sporting event in the world starts on Sunday. To get you prepared, The Power Rank runs its own win probabilities for all 32 teams based on world football/soccer rankings that take match results and adjust for opponent based on a propriety algorithm.
Despite the sophistication of my predictive analytics, it is always more accurate to combine predictions from a number of accurate sources. The win probabilities below come from a combination of the markets, my numbers and a few other sources such as FiveThirtyEight.
Let’s take a look at the results for a few teams.
Brazil, 18.3% win probability, highest – There is no predictor, market, data or otherwise, that does not make Brazil the favorite. Despite all this talent, it’s still better than 4 in 5 that Brazil does not win the World Cup.
Argentina, 11.5% win probability, second highest – While the markets have Argentina as a strong second favorite, the data and analytics do not like them. My numbers at The Power Rank have Argentina with the 8th highest win probability, and FiveThirtyEight has them at 4th.
In addition, the player composite rankings from Twenty First Group and Transfer Markt also do not like Argentina, as both metrics rank the country 7th. Lionel Messi is still a great player, but he is now 35 years old and at the twilight of his career.
Part of the belief in Argentina stems from a 1-0 win over Brazil in the Copa America final in the summer of 2021. However, Brazil dominated that match. Argentina might be the one team to fade in the markets.
England, 8.6% win probability, 5th highest – England never ranks that well as a team. In my rankings at The Power Rank, they rank 8th after an appearance in the final of Euro 2021. This is the highest they have been over the last decade. England has the 7th highest win probability by FiveThirtyEight, a model that is mostly team based.
However, England has top notch talent. Transfer Markt rates England as having the most valuable World Cup squad, and the metrics of Twenty First Group have them second behind only Brazil.
United States, 0.9% win probability, 15th highest – Don’t expect the US to win this international tournament. However, if they beat Wales, they should emerge from Group B along with England.
However, do not discount Iran, the 32nd best team in my rankings. Iran has Mehdi Taremi, an excellent goal scorer for FC Porto, a top team in Portugal and regular Champions League participant.
Become a member of The Power Rank
While you can check out the win probability for all 32 teams over at The Power Rank, only members of The Power Rank get access to all of these ensemble win probabilities.
These more accurate numbers give you the best chance to win any World Cup pool. In addition, I provide my advice on how to win your pool (hint: it’s a lot like how to win a different tournament pool that happens in March).
In addition, members get access to:
- College football and NFL spread and total predictions
- College basketball spread predictions, available the day before the games get played
- My research into American football, such as on home and rest advantage
To learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank, click here.