Denver Broncos

Grantland, Betting Dork and 3 football predictions

I got into some NFL football this week.

First, I agreed to appear on Betting Dork, the podcast of Gill Alexander. During the NFL season, he invites a guest to appear with his regular round table that talks NFL games. Gill is a friend and all around great guy; dork might be the last word I would use to describe him. You can listen to the podcast each week here.

Second, an opportunity at Grantland came up. They made an excellent video on Kevin Kelley, the high school football coach in Arkansas that always goes for it on 4th down and always onside kicks. They wanted a blog post to accompany the video, so they asked me this: if not punting is one revolution in football analytics, what’s the next big revolution?

My first thought was that NFL teams should stop running the ball.

While this might seem crazy, numbers back up the argument. Including negative yards from sacks, NFL teams throw for 6.10 yards per pass attempt. On the ground, they only gain 4.17 yards per rush.

Moreover, over the last 10 NFL seasons, there is no correlation between rush efficiency, measured by yards per rush on offense, and winning. I found this lack of correlation shocking. The NFL is truly a quarterback’s league. Winning teams can throw the ball downfield while preventing their opposition from doing the same.

The article left a lot of room for further analysis, as people noted in the comments. Pass efficiency might decline with a higher percentage of passes. (Note that I do not think this is a given, especially with good play calling.) There’s also a higher risk for turnovers on pass plays. Hopefully, Grantland will let me follow up on these thoughts later.

You can read the article here. Be sure to watch the awesome video at the bottom on Kevin Kelley’s Pulaski Bruins.

I do think passing matters most in the NFL, especially if you want to predict the future. Yards per pass attempt correlates with winning even more than yards per play, the key stat I look at in college football.

This analysis is based on my NFL yards per pass attempt adjusted for strength of schedule. I’ll make all these numbers available soon.

Of course, I couldn’t resist talking about a college game at the end.

Kansas City at Denver

Kansas City has been one of the luckiest NFL teams this season. They have played a soft schedule and have benefitted from turnovers. The Chiefs needed 2 defensive touchdowns to beat Buffalo 23-13 in their last game.

So I was shocked when my numbers came down on the side of the Chiefs. The line has held steady at Denver at 8, while yards per pass attempt predicts Denver by 5. What gives?

I think people understand the problems with Kansas City. ESPN ran a piece on how the Chiefs were the most troubled 9-0 team in the history of the NFL. And I think that’s right.

However, people might be missing how bad Denver’s defense is. They are 28th in my pass defense rankings, which is just terrible for a Super Bowl contender. They have been a bit better the last 3 games since Von Miller has returned.

Overall, Denver gets its edge in this game from Peyton Manning and it’s top ranked pass offense against Kansas City’s 6th ranked pass defense. Denver has better than even odds to win.

However, don’t be surprised to see the Chiefs go to 10-0, especially if they can generate a pass rush against Manning and get some more turnover luck.

Minnesota at Seattle

Seattle is a legit Super Bowl contender. Minnesota is a poor team that features Christian Ponder at QB. However, a line that favors Seattle by 12 seems like too much. Yards per pass attempt predicts a 8.6 point win for Seattle. Remember, this prediction includes the throwing performance of both Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman.

Moreover, the run game could play a role in this game. Minnesota has RB Adrian Peterson, one of the most explosive players in the game. Their rush attack, ranked 5th by raw yards per rush, faces a Seattle defense ranked 21st in rush defense. While I don’t recommend building a team around a RB like Peterson, his presence can certainly affect this game in favor of Minnesota.

Georgia at Auburn

This game plays a surprising role in the national championship race. A Georgia win (with an Alabama win over Mississippi State) locks up the SEC West for Alabama. Auburn would have 2 conferences losses, and it wouldn’t matter if they beat Alabama in 2 weeks.

However, if Auburn wins, then their game with Alabama decides the SEC West. Then an Auburn win puts Alabama out of the title picture… like I predicted in Grantland a month ago.

Can Auburn win? My team rankings predict a 6 point win for Auburn. However, these rankings can be heavily impacted by turnovers, and Georgia has 7 more give aways than take aways this season. Had they performed better in this department, Georgia probably beats Missouri in their key SEC East battle.

Yards per plays predicts a Georgia win by 2 based on the strength of their offense. Despite a rash of injuries to key skill players, QB Aaron Murray has led the Bulldogs to 6th in my offensive rankings by yards per play. The line favors Auburn by 3.5, so expect a tight game that could come down to a last second field goal.

Thanks for reading.

NFL Rankings, Week 13

By Tom Kellogg 1 Comment

Week 13… one month to go until the end of the season!

With five games left to play this season, things are certainly heating up but some teams are cooling down.

As mentioned last week, the Bears (#7, 4.24) struggled without Jay Cutler at the helm, and may be at the beginning of a skid with their offense in the very unsure looking hands of Caleb Hanie. Their defense and Matt Forte will keep them in games, but with Hanie looking like Rex Grossman minus the talent, turnovers may kill this team’s hopes of playing in January.

Lucky for the Bears the Lions (#10, 2.00) also lost a star player when Ndamukong Suh decided to curbstomp the Packers’ backup guard Evan Deitrich-Smith on Thursday. After grabbing Deitrich-Smith’s head and smashing it into the turf a few times, Suh was pulled away from the guard by other players. Suh was not quite finished and with clear intent stomped on Deitrich-Smith’s arm while the player was still on the ground. Suh was immediately ejected in the loss, and for the brutality of the infraction as well as his apparent lack of remorse for the act (he later claimed to be trying to regain his balance, but has since admitted his mistake) he has been suspended for the next two games as well.

The Texans (#6, 5.48) are on a roll and with the Colts (#32, -12.10) finally out of their way the AFC South title seems to be in their grasp. But two weeks ago Matt Schaub’s season ended with an injury, and last week his replacement Matt Leinart, who was playing well, also succumbed to a season ending injury. Tyler Yates finished the game and is slated to start this week, but Yates is just not the guy to inspire confidence in a team as they come down the homestretch and into a playoff run. Kellen Clemens has been brought in as a virtual 4th string quarterback in the event that Yates’ season also ends abruptly, but do not expect big things out of either player. Even though the Texans have thrived on solid defense and a dynamic running game, Yates invites opponents to stack the box against the run and put Houston to the test. With only a two game lead over Tennessee (#13, 0.86) the Texans might be headed for more heartbreak than glory.

Oakland (#14, 0.30) is playing well and looked good driving the ball against Chicago’s stout defense last weekend. Unfortunately for them, the Tim Tebow tide is taking over. The Broncos (#18, -1.25) are nipping at the heels of the Raiders in terms of The Power Rank, and after a four game win streak are only one game behind the division leader, and are only one game out of the second wild card spot as well. The real secret to Tebow’s success, unless you believe in divine intervention, is a combination of an emerging defensive powerhouse led by this year’s second-overall draft pick, Von Miller, and Tebow’s excellent ball security. Denver’s defense has allowed Tebow’s anemic offense to win games in spite of averaging less than 20 points per game. It’s not so much that Oakland is hurting… in fact, they are doing fairly well under veteran replacement Carson Palmer. It’s more that Denver seems to be getting hot at the right time. If they keep their momentum going Oakland may take a back seat in the division and miss a shot at the playoffs.

Finally, the Giants (#17, -0.70) are starting to match their record with their mediocre rank on The Power Rank. Our numbers have shown them to be overachievers all season long, and they have finally allowed slow starting Dallas take control of the NFC East with their recent three game losing streak. With a probably loss at home against Green Bay (#1, 12.54) this weekend, the Giants will fall to 6-6, a mediocre .500 record that matches their inconsistent play this year.

Expect these downward trends to continue as the season winds down.

NFL Rankings, Week 11

By Tom Kellogg Leave a Comment

Here we are, week 11 in the NFL. In spite of the fact that Aaron Rodgers is on pace to post a record breaking season in almost every statistical category for a quarterback, Tebowmania is sweeping the nation. But while Rodgers’ Packers (#1, 13.13) are all but a lock for a playoff spot, Tebow’s Broncos (#24, -2.81) are more questionable. How questionable? Well, let’s take a look a the current playoff picture by NFL standards:

Currently Denver is not quite making the cut, but with a win over the Jets (#17, -0.03) last night they are only half a game behind division leader Oakland (#18, -1.83) and are 1.5 games out of the wildcard spot. If they were baseball those numbers would be more encouraging, but with only 6 games left it will be difficult but not impossible for the Denver Tebows… i mean Broncos… to make the playoffs. Also just missing the cut are the Bills (#16, 0.39) who have fallen flat after a fantastic start to the season, and the Titans (#15, 0.54).

But this is just what the records of the teams are, and those are going to change significantly over the coming weeks. Less likely to change is each team’s Power Rank. So let’s take a look at what the Power Rank predicts for the 2011 playoffs.

When the Power Rank is used to predict the teams that will make the playoffs some interesting things happen. Denver is not even on the map. Oakland is predicted to win the abysmal AFC West in spite of their negative rating. Tennessee has the 6th best rating in the AFC, but Oakland gets the nod because a team from every division has to be represented. (How bad is the AFC West you ask? Every single team in it has a negative point differential this year. Ouch.)

In the NFC a big change occurs in the NFC East. Dallas (#9, 2.93) overtakes New York (#13, 1.44) for the division title, and the Giants go from division winner to watching the playoffs from home. Detroit (#11, 2.17) hangs on to a wildcard berth, but barely. Given the team’s recent slide and the fact that Jahvid’s Best’s return is not yet in sight it is reasonable to expect them to continue falling, meaning there may be room for the Falcons (#12, 1.51) or another NFC East team to sneak in later in the season.

Ok. Now for a word on this Tebow guy and the triple option. The triple option isn’t the newest thing to hit the NFL, it’s one of the oldest things to hit the NFL. The Broncos are taking advantage of a league that is focused on the passing game, that has pass cover corners who struggle to take on strong runners (did you see Revis get trampled last night?) and smaller, faster defensive linemen who focus on rushing passers. The Miami Dolphins (#27, -4.93) did the same thing in 2008, wowing the league with the “Wildcat”, a variation of the single wing formation that was popular when leather helmets were still used. Where is the Wildcat featured now? In the same place that the triple option will be featured in a couple of years: nowhere.

The truth is that the triple option doesn’t present a team with a ton of options. So if teams feel threatened they will just stock up on a couple 350lb+ defensive linemen who eat up double teams and destroy any kind of surge to offensive line attempts to create. If Tebow’s center and guards’ backs are being pushed into his face he can’t make his reads or execute his options, and as we’ve seen there’s not a whole lot else that guy can do.

At least on the field.