THE POWER RANK

How to find a late round QB with value for fantasy football

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Screen Shot 2015-07-15 at 4.18.14 PMFantasy football is so random.

Your buddy Jones picks up some rookie running back late in the draft and runs off with the league championship. Who can predict such things?

Even with the difficulty of predicting rookie performance, that doesn’t stop the quants from trying. Joseph Juan over at Numberfire makes the argument for Tennessee rookie QB Marcus Mariota (assuming he signs a contract).

The quantitative argument is flimsy, as it relies on a comparison with one other player (Cam Newton). But the article is worth a read if you’re in a fantasy football league.

To read the article over on Numberfire, click here.

NFL Rankings, Week 13

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Week 13…  one month to go until the end of the season!

With five games left to play this season, things are certainly heating up but some teams are cooling down.

As mentioned last week, the Bears (#7, 4.24) struggled without Jay Cutler at the helm, and may be at the beginning of a skid with their offense in the very unsure looking hands of Caleb Hanie. Their defense and Matt Forte will keep them in games, but with Hanie looking like Rex Grossman minus the talent, turnovers may kill this team’s hopes of playing in January.

Lucky for the Bears the Lions (#10, 2.00) also lost a star player when Ndamukong Suh decided to curbstomp the Packers’ backup guard Evan Deitrich-Smith on Thursday.  After grabbing Deitrich-Smith’s head and smashing it into the turf a few times, Suh was pulled away from the guard by other players.  Suh was not quite finished and with clear intent stomped on Deitrich-Smith’s arm while the player was still on the ground.  Suh was immediately ejected in the loss, and for the brutality of the infraction as well as his apparent lack of remorse for the act (he later claimed to be trying to regain his balance, but has since admitted his mistake) he has been suspended for the next two games as well.

The Texans (#6, 5.48) are on a roll and with the Colts (#32, -12.10) finally out of their way the AFC South title seems to be in their grasp.  But two weeks ago Matt Schaub’s season ended with an injury, and last week his replacement Matt Leinart, who was playing well, also succumbed to a season ending injury.  Tyler Yates finished the game and is slated to start this week, but Yates is just not the guy to inspire confidence in a team as they come down the homestretch and into a playoff run.  Kellen Clemens has been brought in as a virtual 4th string quarterback in the event that Yates’ season also ends abruptly, but do not expect big things out of either player.  Even though the Texans have thrived on solid defense and a dynamic running game, Yates invites opponents to stack the box against the run and put Houston to the test.  With only a two game lead over Tennessee (#13, 0.86) the Texans might be headed for more heartbreak than glory.

Oakland (#14, 0.30) is playing well and looked good driving the ball against Chicago’s stout defense last weekend.  Unfortunately for them, the Tim Tebow tide is taking over.  The Broncos (#18, -1.25) are nipping at the heels of the Raiders in terms of The Power Rank, and after a four game win streak are only one game behind the division leader, and are only one game out of the second wild card spot as well.  The real secret to Tebow’s success, unless you believe in divine intervention, is a combination of an emerging defensive powerhouse led by this year’s second-overall draft pick, Von Miller, and Tebow’s excellent ball security.  Denver’s defense has allowed Tebow’s anemic offense to win games in spite of averaging less than 20 points per game.  It’s not so much that Oakland is hurting…  in fact, they are doing fairly well under veteran replacement Carson Palmer.  It’s more that Denver seems to be getting hot at the right time.  If they keep their momentum going Oakland may take a back seat in the division and miss a shot at the playoffs.

Finally, the Giants (#17, -0.70) are starting to match their record with their mediocre rank on The Power Rank.  Our numbers have shown them to be overachievers all season long, and they have finally allowed slow starting Dallas take control of the NFC East with their recent three game losing streak.  With a probably loss at home against Green Bay (#1, 12.54) this weekend, the Giants will fall to 6-6, a mediocre .500 record that matches their inconsistent play this year.

Expect these downward trends to continue as the season winds down.

NFL Rankings, Week 16

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This last week was not as kind to The Power Rank predictions of winners as previous weeks have been.  A divisional upset in Atlanta, a poor showing in Cincy, and a postponed gamed in Philly all threw off last week’s predictions from The Power Rank.

Some of these misses made little difference in who is and is not expected to continue to the postseason, but two major changes did take place.

In the AFC West, San Diego’s (#7) abysmal loss to Cincinnati (#19) and Kansas City’s (#15) triumph over Tennessee (#16) made these two swap places as division winners and playoff spectators.  Little else has changed in the playoff expectations in the AFC.  In fact, five of the six playoff spots have already been clinched.  The last spot open is for the AFC South winner, who we predict will be the Indianapolis Colts (#9).  The Colts control their destiny, and earn their division title with a win over Tennessee (#16) this Sunday.  If the Colts lose and the Jaguars (#25) beat Houston (#22), then Jacksonville may just sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record.

There has been a change in the NFC playoff projection as well.  The St. Louis loss to Kansas city two weeks ago put the Rams’ playoff hopes in jeopardy and kept those of the Seahawks (#30) alive.  These two teams face off in Seattle on Sunday night for a nationally televised game.  The home field advantage tips the scales in favor of the Seahawks, who The Power Rank now predicts will knock the Rams out of the playoffs.

The NFC playoff picture still has some uncertainty to it.  The Packers (#2) control their destiny and can take the last wildcard spot with a win at Green Bay against the Bears (#11).  If the Packers lose and the Giants (#17) defeat the Redskins (#24), then the Giants will be in the playoffs.  If both the Packers and Giants lose, Tampa Bay (#18) will have a chance to slide into the postseason with a miraculous road win against the Saints (#6).  If all three teams lose, the Packers will make the playoffs.

This week presents some interesting viewing options for NFL fans.  Since so many of the games have little to no impact on the playoffs, a few games can really be spotlighted as the most important to watch:

St. Louis (#27) at Seattle (#30) – The Rams travel to meet the Seahawks and fight for the NFC West division title.  Neither team is particularly impressive so the game may be sloppy, but with a playoff spot on the line it should also be emotionally charged.  Luckily, this is also the Sunday night game so everyone will have a chance to enjoy it.  Although the numbers predict a Seattle victory, the game is really too close to call.  Expect the team that makes the fewest mistakes to win.

Chicago (#11) at Green Bay (#2) – The Bears travel to the Frozen Tundra to battle the Packers who are no doubt looking for redemption after their last minute loss to the Bears earlier this year.  Even though the Bears have clinched homefield advantage is still on the table, so do not expect them to go quietly.  The Power Rank predicts a solid victory for the Packers.

Tennessee (#16) at Indianapolis (#9) – Even though the Titans are out, they have a chance to spoil against a hated division rival.  The Colts can seal their playoff hopes with a win, and are playing at home where they have been 5-2 this year.  The Power Rank predicts a win for the Colts.

1. New England, 13-2, 10.36
2. Green Bay, 9-6, 6.92
3. Baltimore, 11-4, 5.94
4. Pittsburgh, 11-4, 5.40
5. Atlanta, 12-3, 4.64
6. New Orleans, 11-4, 3.52
7. San Diego, 8-7, 3.46
8. Philadelphia, 10-5, 3.39
9. Indianapolis, 9-6, 3.13
10. New York Jets, 10-5, 3.04
11. Chicago, 11-4, 2.78
12. Cleveland, 5-10, 1.38
13. Miami, 7-8, 0.41
14. Detroit, 5-10, 0.21
15. Kansas City, 10-5, 0.17
16. Tennessee, 6-9, 0.15
17. New York Giants, 9-6, -0.25
18. Tampa Bay, 9-6, -1.25
19. Cincinnati, 4-11, -1.31
20. Oakland, 7-8, -1.38
21. Dallas, 5-10, -1.51
22. Houston, 5-10, -1.55
23. Minnesota, 6-9, -1.58
24. Washington, 6-9, -2.59
25. Jacksonville, 8-7, -2.72
26. Buffalo, 4-11, -3.05
27. St. Louis, 7-8, -3.48
28. San Francisco, 5-10, -4.89
29. Denver, 4-11, -5.16
30. Seattle, 6-9, -5.78
31. Arizona, 5-10, -7.03
32. Carolina, 2-13, -11.37

NFL Rankings, Week 10

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…cue the Youtube videos of beer commercials featuring Jim Mora screaming about the playoffs, because we are going there today.

Ten weeks into the season the Power Rank seems to be stablizing quite well with few major jumps, as illustrated by last week’s article.  To build on that stable foundation I’d like to discuss something of importance that is looming on the horizon for many teams that aren’t from Carolina – the playoffs.

The playoff picture is especially interesting because of the field of teams that are competing for spots.  Both the AFC West and NFC West are so bad that teams low in both The Power Rank and NFL standings have a shot at glory in early 2011.

I decided to take a look into the crystal ball that is the Power Rank algorithm to get a peek at what the playoffs might look like this year.  I started by separating the conferences and placing them in The Power Rank order.  Then I highlighted who would be in the playoffs (if they started this week) based on Power Rank standings and on NFL standings. 

A few teams would be in regardless of whose standings are used, and their names should be no surprise to any follower of The Power Rank or of the NFL.  The Jets, Ravens, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers all seem to own five of the AFC playoff spots.  The Power Rank and the NFL standings agree on each of these selections, although The Power Rank does indicate that Tennessee still has a chance to make a solid bid for a wildcard spot.

In the NFC things are not so clear cut.  In both scenarios Philadelphia and Atlanta win their divisions, but these are the only two spots that appear in both playoff pictures.  Green Bay is also in both, although in the current NFL standings they would be a wildcard team and not a division winner.  It is not total agreement, but it is a solid indication that Green Bay is on the fast track to the playoffs.

The other three NFC playoff spots are taken by completely different teams in each list.  The Power Rank has New Orleans, Detroit, and St. Louis joining the top three teams of the NFC in the playoffs.  The NFL standings instead put Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Seattle in the hunt.  The difference between St. Louis and Seattle in the fight to win the NFC West is neglible, and both teams could easily find their way into the backdoor of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay has been finding ways to win games, but according to The Power Rank it’s all smoke and mirrors.  They are the lowest ranked team to be in the playoff hunt, and they’re doing it as a wildcard.  Do not be surprised to see this squad fall off the map in the next couple of weeks.

Chicago is making a solid bid for the NFC North title, and their early season win over the Packers has made the going rough for Green Bay fans who would like to see their team separate itself from the pack (no pun intended).  Chicago is ranked rather low but their classic defense and special teams oriented play is still making the big plays that produce results. 

The most interesting thing to come out of the NFC North is the Detroit Lions, of former 0-16 fame, showing up in The Power Rank playoff picture.  The polar opposite of the Bears (again, no pun intended) the Lions seem to have an explosive offense and terrible luck that prevents them from translating their big plays into wins.  Remember that controversial Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one?  Don’t count the Lions out just yet. If they go on a nice streak they could break into the playoffs with critical momentum, much like the 2007 Giants.

The last team to discuss in the NFC is the Saints.  Yes, they have undoubtedly experienced a massive Super Bowl hangover.  Still, they are not as bad as they appear – they just aren’t living up to the hype that the media has piled onto this team.  Remember, they were a surprise in 2009 that was taken for granted as a 2010 contender and that’s a recipe for falling short of expectations.  The Saints are still a solid team that knows how to win, and they will most likely live up to their rank and make a strong playoff push in the final few weeks of the season.

By this point some AFC West fans are wondering why I didn’t mention the discrepency between The Power Rank picking the Chargers and the NFL taking the Raiders as AFC West division champs.  This division is tough.  The Chargers have played below their potential and have lost by poor special teams play.  The Raiders are playing well above their potential but the young squad seems to coming together and building steam which makes them a solid dark horse candidate.  The Chiefs haven’t kept up the winning ways of their early season success but are still a presence in this division.  In other words, this one is too close to call.

There are still seven weeks left in the season though.  Seven wins would put just about any team firmly in the playoffs, and seven losses would deny almost every team from entry so it may be too early to be making calls, but with such agreement between standings and ranking I find it hard to not start looking forward.

1. New York Jets, 7-2, 6.71
2. Green Bay, 6-3, 5.78
3. Baltimore, 6-3, 5.72
4. New England, 7-2, 5.39
5. Indianapolis, 6-3, 4.42
6. Pittsburgh, 6-3, 4.39
7. Philadelphia, 6-3, 4.04
8. Tennessee, 5-4, 3.61
9. Atlanta, 7-2, 3.37
10. Miami, 5-4, 2.06
11. San Diego, 4-5, 1.49
12. Cleveland, 3-6, 1.15
13. New Orleans, 6-3, 0.90
14. Kansas City, 5-4, 0.60
15. Detroit, 2-7, 0.53
16. Chicago, 6-3, 0.48
17. New York Giants, 6-3, -0.15
18. Oakland, 5-4, -0.42
19. Minnesota, 3-6, -0.77
20. Denver, 3-6, -1.00
21. Cincinnati, 2-7, -1.31
22. St. Louis, 4-5, -1.99
23. Houston, 4-5, -2.11
24. Seattle, 5-4, -2.87
25. Washington, 4-5, -2.96
26. San Francisco, 3-6, -3.00
27. Tampa Bay, 6-3, -3.52
28. Jacksonville, 5-4, -3.54
29. Dallas, 2-7, -3.94 
30. Buffalo, 1-8, -4.05
31. Arizona, 3-6, -6.08
32. Carolina, 1-8, -12.92

NFL Rankings, Week 7

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Since we are approaching the middle of the season I thought week 7 might be a nice time to reflect on how things have moved in the last few weeks of rating and ranking teams with the Power Rank algorithm.

The first thing that pops out is that four teams have stayed in the top five through the last few weeks, including the number one Jets retaining their spot at the top throughout.  Baltimore has only dropped one spot in the rankings, but note that their rating has dropped nearly four points in that time, meaning that if they were expected to win by a touchdown in week four they are only favored by a field goal now.

One of the biggest moves was the Titans who started at #14 but have since worked their way up to #4.  During this time their rating has increased from 0.05 to 6.40, showing that solid wins can help a team move from the middle ground limbo discussed last week into the realm of the dominant.

The biggest move was that of the Giants who have climbed an amazing 18 spots from #27 to #9, and have increased their rating by nearly seven points.  They have even surpassed Green Bay who have stayed consistently around #10, and this means that the Giants are joining the ranks of the elite NFC teams that could qualify as mediocre AFC teams.

A couple of teams have endured major rating changes without moving much in the ranking.  Kansas City has dropped nearly 7 points in rating, but they are still a top team in the league having only dropped four spots in the Power Rank from #3 to #7.  On the other end of the spectrum the Raiders have gained almost 5 rating points but have only moved up four spots in the Power Rank from #29 to #25.  If you recall the graph from last week, this simply means that these teams have moved from the fringe into the middle of the Power Rank where a couple big wins or losses can make huge differences – expect more movement from both of these teams in the near future.

How much movement can one expect in the middle?  Take Seattle for example.  They only lost 0.72 rating points but have fallen six spots in the Power Rank from #18 to #24.  Chicago also slid 5 spots from #15 to #20 while only having lost 1.17 rating points.  When you’re in the middle of the pack every game counts that much more.

These are just some of the biggest changes that have occurred over the last few weeks, but you can check out how your favorite teams have changed since week four in the following chart:

1. New York Jets, 5-1, 9.81
2. Pittsburgh, 5-1, 8.24
3. Baltimore, 5-2, 7.39
4. Tennessee, 5-2, 6.40
5. New England, 5-1, 6.27
6. Indianapolis, 4-2, 5.56
7. Kansas City, 4-2, 2.50
8. Atlanta, 5-2, 2.14
9. New York Giants, 5-2, 1.79
10. Green Bay, 4-3, 1.48
11. Miami, 3-3, 1.24
12. Houston, 4-2, 1.16
13. Minnesota, 2-4, 0.39
14. Denver, 2-5, 0.16
15. Washington, 4-3, 0.05
16. Philadelphia, 4-3, 0.03
17. Cincinnati, 2-4, -0.16
18. San Diego, 2-5, -0.42
19. Dallas, 1-5, -1.27
20. Chicago, 4-3, -1.29
21. St. Louis, 3-4, -1.42
22. Detroit, 1-5, -1.66
23. Cleveland, 2-5, -1.72
24. Seattle, 4-2, -2.11
25. Oakland, 3-4, -2.21
26. New Orleans, 4-3, -3.59
27. Buffalo, 0-6, -4.49
28. Jacksonville, 3-4, -4.70
29. Tampa Bay, 4-2, -5.09
30. San Francisco, 1-6, -6.25
31. Arizona, 3-3, -7.06
32. Carolina, 1-5, -11.22