Over at the Detroit News, I used defense independent pitching statistics to look at each pitcher in the Tigers’ bullpen.
I had to lead with the closer Joakim Soria. He’s having a fantastic season with a 1.06 ERA. However, an unsustainable level of hit suppression has fueled this performance.
To get all the details, click here.
My latest article with the Detroit News looks at the Tigers’ bullpen through modern pitching statistics. The take home message: the bullpen isn’t that good.
However, the more fun part is explaining fielding independent statistics to the average Tigers fan. Research has shown that pitchers have no control over balls hit into the field of play.
While the numbers have confirmed this over huge sample sizes, it’s still hard for the human mind to accept. I was very upfront about this in the article. However, it didn’t stop readers from posting 47 comments, and about 49 of these comments were negative.
However, we must keep up the fight against dinosaur statistics like ERA.
To read my article on modern pitching statistics and the Tigers’ bullpen, click here.
In my latest article for the Detroit News, I ask whether the Tigers have gotten lucky early this season.
There are many ways luck can affect a baseball team, but I look at cluster luck here. To read why the Tigers have gotten unlucky in this department, click here.
This doesn’t mean the Tigers will continue to score runs at their current torrid pace. As a commenter pointed out, they have a high batting average on balls in play, which will regress as the season progresses.
However, we can rule out cluster luck early this season. The article has numbers for all MLB teams through Sunday. The list below gives cluster luck through Tuesday’s games.
The first number gives total cluster luck, while the numbers in parentheses gives a breakdown on offense and defense. In all cases, a positive number implies good luck.
1. Texas, 19.32. (11.62, 7.70).
2. New York Mets, 16.55. (9.48, 7.08).
3. Arizona, 14.95. (5.89, 9.06).
4. Toronto, 14.45. (14.83, -0.38).
5. Los Angeles Angels, 10.53. (9.16, 1.36).
6. Pittsburgh, 8.72. (11.18, -2.46).
7. San Diego, 7.27. (3.44, 3.82).
8. Boston, 4.79. (11.96, -7.17).
9. St. Louis, 4.78. (-3.91, 8.69).
10. Atlanta, 2.88. (0.86, 2.02).
11. Philadelphia, 2.09. (-3.17, 5.25).
12. Colorado, 1.46. (-1.37, 2.83).
13. New York Yankees, 1.16. (3.35, -2.19).
14. Minnesota, 1.16. (4.00, -2.85).
15. Kansas City, 0.88. (2.89, -2.01).
16. Cleveland, 0.08. (0.23, -0.16).
17. Cincinnati, -1.29. (3.19, -4.48).
18. Chicago Cubs, -2.25. (1.66, -3.91).
19. Chicago White Sox, -3.76. (-2.57, -1.19).
20. Houston, -5.11. (-5.89, 0.78).
21. Washington, -5.47. (-0.72, -4.75).
22. Oakland, -6.50. (1.67, -8.17).
23. Miami, -6.76. (3.40, -10.16).
24. Detroit, -8.86. (-8.23, -0.63).
25. Milwaukee, -9.15. (2.44, -11.59).
26. San Francisco, -10.72. (-13.43, 2.71).
27. Seattle, -11.66. (-3.98, -7.68).
28. Baltimore, -12.61. (-0.99, -11.62).
29. Los Angeles Dodgers, -15.28. (-13.80, -1.48).
30. Tampa Bay, -15.53. (-3.77, -11.76).
Detroit’s cluster luck has gotten worse on offense but gone back to neutral on defense.
Justin Verlander is a huge question mark for the Detroit Tigers. The former Cy Young winner has a triceps strain in his pitching arm and won’t make his first start until April 12 at the earliest.
Will this injury derail his season? Or is this injury a fluke that will seem like a distant memory when Verlander throws his 200th inning in September?
In my latest column for the Detroit News, I use the injury analytics of Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs to analyze Verlander’s situation. I also look at the other starters for the Tigers.
To read the column, click here.
Who will win the AL Central in 2015?
To answer this question, I aggregated win total predictions in my first article for the Detroit News. I’ll bring a numbers based perspective on the Tigers all season (every other week early in the season, once a month when college football picks up in August).
The model combines the markets with 6 different predictions based on analytics. The ensemble predicts a dead heat between the Tigers and Indians atop the AL Central, as their win totals differ by less than half a run.
I’ll say more about this ensemble model in a few weeks, but here are the results for all 30 MLB teams.
1. Washington, 93.4.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers, 92.7.
3. St. Louis, 88.5.
4. Los Angeles Angels, 87.6.
5. Seattle, 87.2.
6. Boston, 86.2.
7. Pittsburgh, 84.2.
8. Cleveland, 83.9.
9. Detroit, 83.6.
10. Chicago Cubs, 83.4.
11. San Diego, 83.3.
12. San Francisco, 83.2.
13. Oakland, 82.9.
14. Toronto, 82.3.
15. Baltimore, 81.9.
16. New York Yankees, 81.3.
17. New York Mets, 81.2.
18. Tampa Bay, 80.7.
19. Miami, 80.7.
20. Kansas City, 80.3.
21. Chicago White Sox, 79.5.
22. Milwaukee, 78.8.
23. Cincinnati, 77.2.
24. Houston, 75.9.
25. Texas, 75.8.
26. Colorado, 72.5.
27. Atlanta, 72.3.
28. Minnesota, 72.3.
29. Arizona, 72.0.
30. Philadelphia, 68.5.