How the hot start Tigers have actually been unlucky

In my latest article for the Detroit News, I ask whether the Tigers have gotten lucky early this season.

There are many ways luck can affect a baseball team, but I look at cluster luck here. To read why the Tigers have gotten unlucky in this department, click here.

This doesn’t mean the Tigers will continue to score runs at their current torrid pace. As a commenter pointed out, they have a high batting average on balls in play, which will regress as the season progresses.

However, we can rule out cluster luck early this season. The article has numbers for all MLB teams through Sunday. The list below gives cluster luck through Tuesday’s games.

The first number gives total cluster luck, while the numbers in parentheses gives a breakdown on offense and defense. In all cases, a positive number implies good luck.

1. Texas, 19.32. (11.62, 7.70).
2. New York Mets, 16.55. (9.48, 7.08).
3. Arizona, 14.95. (5.89, 9.06).
4. Toronto, 14.45. (14.83, -0.38).
5. Los Angeles Angels, 10.53. (9.16, 1.36).
6. Pittsburgh, 8.72. (11.18, -2.46).
7. San Diego, 7.27. (3.44, 3.82).
8. Boston, 4.79. (11.96, -7.17).
9. St. Louis, 4.78. (-3.91, 8.69).
10. Atlanta, 2.88. (0.86, 2.02).
11. Philadelphia, 2.09. (-3.17, 5.25).
12. Colorado, 1.46. (-1.37, 2.83).
13. New York Yankees, 1.16. (3.35, -2.19).
14. Minnesota, 1.16. (4.00, -2.85).
15. Kansas City, 0.88. (2.89, -2.01).
16. Cleveland, 0.08. (0.23, -0.16).
17. Cincinnati, -1.29. (3.19, -4.48).
18. Chicago Cubs, -2.25. (1.66, -3.91).
19. Chicago White Sox, -3.76. (-2.57, -1.19).
20. Houston, -5.11. (-5.89, 0.78).
21. Washington, -5.47. (-0.72, -4.75).
22. Oakland, -6.50. (1.67, -8.17).
23. Miami, -6.76. (3.40, -10.16).
24. Detroit, -8.86. (-8.23, -0.63).
25. Milwaukee, -9.15. (2.44, -11.59).
26. San Francisco, -10.72. (-13.43, 2.71).
27. Seattle, -11.66. (-3.98, -7.68).
28. Baltimore, -12.61. (-0.99, -11.62).
29. Los Angeles Dodgers, -15.28. (-13.80, -1.48).
30. Tampa Bay, -15.53. (-3.77, -11.76).

Detroit’s cluster luck has gotten worse on offense but gone back to neutral on defense.