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Predictions for 2018 Frozen Four, College Hockey

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

These predictions are based on the college hockey rankings (see below), which originate from offense and defense rankings for 60 Division I teams. These offense and defense rankings imply a goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.

Based on these goal rates, I use a Poisson process model to calculate the probability for a win, loss or draw for each game in regulation. If a game is tied, it goes to an overtime in which the first team to score wins.

Minn-Duluth vs Ohio State: Ohio State has a 40.2% chance to win. Minn-Duluth has a 39.9% chance to win. There is a 19.9% chance for overtime.

Michigan vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame has a 47.9% chance to win. Michigan has a 35.3% chance to win. There is a 16.8% chance for overtime.

Here are the team rankings based on offense and defense rankings. The rating after each team gives an expected goals against an average Division I hockey team.

1. St Cloud State, 1.7
2. Denver, 1.6
3. Ohio State, 1.5
4. Minn-Duluth, 1.5
5. Cornell, 1.4
6. Minnesota State, 1.4
7. Clarkson, 1.2
8. Northeastern, 1.2
9. Notre Dame, 1.2
10. Providence, 1.0
11. North Dakota, 1.0
12. Boston College, 0.9
13. Penn State, 0.9
14. Minnesota, 0.8
15. Michigan, 0.8
16. Boston University, 0.8
17. Harvard, 0.6
18. Princeton, 0.6
19. Union, 0.4
20. Wisconsin, 0.3
21. Omaha, 0.3
22. Maine, 0.2
23. Western Michigan, 0.2
24. Miami, 0.2
25. Connecticut, 0.1

The semi-final between Ohio State and Minnesota Duluth features the two top teams, and the winner of this game would be the favorite in the final.

Filed Under: College hockey

Predictions for the 2018 college hockey tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

These predictions are based on the college hockey rankings, which originate from offense and defense rankings for 60 Division I teams. These offense and defense rankings imply a goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.

Based on these goal rates, I use a Poisson process model to calculate the probability for a win, loss or draw for each game in regulation. If a game is tied, it goes to an overtime in which the first team to score wins. This is not accounted for in these results.

In the results below, 3 seeds Northeastern, Clarkson and Minnesota Duluth are predicted to have a better chance to beat their 2 seed opponents. The tournament starts on Friday, March 23rd, 2018.

West

Air Force vs St Cloud State: St Cloud State has a 77.6% chance to win. Air Force has a 10.7% chance to win. There is a 11.7% chance for overtime.

Minn-Duluth vs Minnesota State: Minn-Duluth has a 42.7% chance to win. Minnesota State has a 39.3% chance to win. There is a 17.9% chance for overtime.

Midwest

Princeton vs Ohio State: Ohio State has a 51.5% chance to win. Princeton has a 32.8% chance to win. There is a 15.7% chance for overtime.

Denver vs Penn State: Denver has a 54.3% chance to win. Penn State has a 30.4% chance to win. There is a 15.3% chance for overtime.

Northeast

Boston University vs Cornell: Cornell has a 53.0% chance to win. Boston University has a 28.9% chance to win. There is a 18.1% chance for overtime.

Northeastern vs Michigan: Northeastern has a 52.0% chance to win. Michigan has a 32.6% chance to win. There is a 15.4% chance for overtime.

East

Michigan Tech vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame has a 59.1% chance to win. Michigan Tech has a 24.0% chance to win. There is a 16.9% chance for overtime.

Clarkson vs Providence: Clarkson has a 46.5% chance to win. Providence has a 34.3% chance to win. There is a 19.2% chance for overtime.

Filed Under: College hockey

College hockey rankings prior to the 2018 tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

These rankings are based college hockey games through March 17, 2018. A least squares algorithm ranks teams on offense and defense based on goals per game adjusted for schedule.

The offense and defense ranks get combined to give the team rankings below. The rating, or the number to the right of each team, gives a predicted average margin of victory against an average Division I hockey team.

Predictions based on these numbers will be posted soon.

Please leave your complaints in the comments.

1. St Cloud State, 1.88
2. Denver, 1.70
3. Minn-Duluth, 1.53
4. Cornell, 1.49
5. Minnesota State, 1.42
6. Clarkson, 1.31
7. Ohio State, 1.28
8. Northeastern, 1.25
9. Notre Dame, 1.10
10. North Dakota, 1.03
11. Providence, 0.99
12. Boston College, 0.94
13. Penn State, 0.88
14. Boston University, 0.80
15. Minnesota, 0.77
16. Princeton, 0.70
17. Harvard, 0.68
18. Michigan, 0.63
19. Union, 0.48
20. Omaha, 0.33
21. Western Michigan, 0.27
22. Wisconsin, 0.26
23. Maine, 0.25
24. Miami, 0.23
25. Quinnipiac, 0.16
26. Connecticut, 0.16
27. Mass-Lowell, 0.11
28. Michigan Tech, 0.09
29. Bowling Green, 0.06
30. Northern Michigan, -0.01
31. Colgate, -0.08
32. Yale, -0.09
33. Bemidji State, -0.12
34. Merrimack, -0.14
35. Massachusetts, -0.16
36. Colorado College, -0.17
37. Michigan State, -0.23
38. Air Force, -0.30
39. New Hampshire, -0.34
40. Dartmouth, -0.44
41. Mercyhurst, -0.46
42. Canisius, -0.47
43. Robert Morris, -0.64
44. Vermont, -0.65
45. Army, -0.66
46. Holy Cross, -0.91
47. St Lawrence, -0.95
48. Alaska, -0.96
49. RIT, -0.98
50. Brown, -1.06
51. Bentley, -1.08
52. Ala-Huntsville, -1.15
53. Sacred Heart, -1.24
54. Ferris State, -1.26
55. RPI, -1.26
56. American, -1.29
57. Arizona State, -1.31
58. Niagara, -1.38
59. Lake Superior, -1.59
60. Ala-Anchorage, -2.08

Filed Under: College hockey

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