These predictions are based on the college hockey rankings (see below), which originate from offense and defense rankings for 60 Division I teams. These offense and defense rankings imply a goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.
Based on these goal rates, I use a Poisson process model to calculate the probability for a win, loss or draw for each game in regulation. If a game is tied, it goes to an overtime in which the first team to score wins.
Minn-Duluth vs Ohio State: Ohio State has a 40.2% chance to win. Minn-Duluth has a 39.9% chance to win. There is a 19.9% chance for overtime.
Michigan vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame has a 47.9% chance to win. Michigan has a 35.3% chance to win. There is a 16.8% chance for overtime.
Here are the team rankings based on offense and defense rankings. The rating after each team gives an expected goals against an average Division I hockey team.
1. St Cloud State, 1.7
2. Denver, 1.6
3. Ohio State, 1.5
4. Minn-Duluth, 1.5
5. Cornell, 1.4
6. Minnesota State, 1.4
7. Clarkson, 1.2
8. Northeastern, 1.2
9. Notre Dame, 1.2
10. Providence, 1.0
11. North Dakota, 1.0
12. Boston College, 0.9
13. Penn State, 0.9
14. Minnesota, 0.8
15. Michigan, 0.8
16. Boston University, 0.8
17. Harvard, 0.6
18. Princeton, 0.6
19. Union, 0.4
20. Wisconsin, 0.3
21. Omaha, 0.3
22. Maine, 0.2
23. Western Michigan, 0.2
24. Miami, 0.2
25. Connecticut, 0.1
The semi-final between Ohio State and Minnesota Duluth features the two top teams, and the winner of this game would be the favorite in the final.
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