Predictions for the 2018 college hockey tournament

These predictions are based on the college hockey rankings, which originate from offense and defense rankings for 60 Division I teams. These offense and defense rankings imply a goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.

Based on these goal rates, I use a Poisson process model to calculate the probability for a win, loss or draw for each game in regulation. If a game is tied, it goes to an overtime in which the first team to score wins. This is not accounted for in these results.

In the results below, 3 seeds Northeastern, Clarkson and Minnesota Duluth are predicted to have a better chance to beat their 2 seed opponents. The tournament starts on Friday, March 23rd, 2018.

West

Air Force vs St Cloud State: St Cloud State has a 77.6% chance to win. Air Force has a 10.7% chance to win. There is a 11.7% chance for overtime.

Minn-Duluth vs Minnesota State: Minn-Duluth has a 42.7% chance to win. Minnesota State has a 39.3% chance to win. There is a 17.9% chance for overtime.

Midwest

Princeton vs Ohio State: Ohio State has a 51.5% chance to win. Princeton has a 32.8% chance to win. There is a 15.7% chance for overtime.

Denver vs Penn State: Denver has a 54.3% chance to win. Penn State has a 30.4% chance to win. There is a 15.3% chance for overtime.

Northeast

Boston University vs Cornell: Cornell has a 53.0% chance to win. Boston University has a 28.9% chance to win. There is a 18.1% chance for overtime.

Northeastern vs Michigan: Northeastern has a 52.0% chance to win. Michigan has a 32.6% chance to win. There is a 15.4% chance for overtime.

East

Michigan Tech vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame has a 59.1% chance to win. Michigan Tech has a 24.0% chance to win. There is a 16.9% chance for overtime.

Clarkson vs Providence: Clarkson has a 46.5% chance to win. Providence has a 34.3% chance to win. There is a 19.2% chance for overtime.

Comments

  1. UPSETS! I’ll be in Allentown cheering for Penn State. 😁 I enjoyed reading your predictions.
    Thank you,
    Chuck Runkle
    Wyomissing, PA

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