These predictions are based on the college hockey rankings, which originate from offense and defense rankings for 60 Division I teams. These offense and defense rankings imply a goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.
Based on these goal rates, I use a Poisson process model to calculate the probability for a win, loss or draw for each game in regulation. If a game is tied, it goes to an overtime in which the first team to score wins. This is not accounted for in these results.
In the results below, 3 seeds Northeastern, Clarkson and Minnesota Duluth are predicted to have a better chance to beat their 2 seed opponents. The tournament starts on Friday, March 23rd, 2018.
West
Air Force vs St Cloud State: St Cloud State has a 77.6% chance to win. Air Force has a 10.7% chance to win. There is a 11.7% chance for overtime.
Minn-Duluth vs Minnesota State: Minn-Duluth has a 42.7% chance to win. Minnesota State has a 39.3% chance to win. There is a 17.9% chance for overtime.
Midwest
Princeton vs Ohio State: Ohio State has a 51.5% chance to win. Princeton has a 32.8% chance to win. There is a 15.7% chance for overtime.
Denver vs Penn State: Denver has a 54.3% chance to win. Penn State has a 30.4% chance to win. There is a 15.3% chance for overtime.
Northeast
Boston University vs Cornell: Cornell has a 53.0% chance to win. Boston University has a 28.9% chance to win. There is a 18.1% chance for overtime.
Northeastern vs Michigan: Northeastern has a 52.0% chance to win. Michigan has a 32.6% chance to win. There is a 15.4% chance for overtime.
East
Michigan Tech vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame has a 59.1% chance to win. Michigan Tech has a 24.0% chance to win. There is a 16.9% chance for overtime.
Clarkson vs Providence: Clarkson has a 46.5% chance to win. Providence has a 34.3% chance to win. There is a 19.2% chance for overtime.
UPSETS! I’ll be in Allentown cheering for Penn State. 😁 I enjoyed reading your predictions.
Thank you,
Chuck Runkle
Wyomissing, PA