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You don’t like Kansas City. It’s sickening that they might win their third Super Bowl in a row with Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. In America, we love winning but loathe winners.
To argue against another Super Bowl win, you might cite Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one score games this season. Quants like myself usually scream about regression. This small sample size of games is certainly an outlier.
One of my most in depth articles at The Power Rank gives a visual explanation of correlation and regression to the mean. I used NFL record in one score games as an example, and the tiny R-squared value means that Kansas City’s win percentage should regress to 50%.
The Chiefs provided ample evidence that they should not have won all 12 one score games this season. For example, against Denver, they needed to block a chip shot field goal attempt that would have won the game.
Regression does loom for Kansas City. However, I believe the Chiefs will regress to a win rate higher than 50%. This was part of my argument in not shying away from Kansas City -1.5 against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game, a bet sent to members of The Power Rank.
Kansas City’s edge in one score games mostly centers on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He has the ball most of the time, and he makes the critical decisions for the offense. If I’m right, then it makes sense to look at how quarterbacks perform in one score games for their career, a large sample size.
I took the play by play data since 1999 and assigned the win or loss for a quarterback that had the most pass attempts in the second half. Here are top quarterback records in one score games (minimum 50 one score games):
- Patrick Mahomes (54-20), 73.0%.
- Peyton Manning (88-42), 67.7%.
- Tom Brady (105-52), 66.9%.
- Ben Roethlisberger (84-49), 63.2%.
- Ryan Tannehill (49-31), 61.3%.
Given the excellence of the top four quarterbacks on this list, there is some signal in these win percentages.
These results also show the randomness in one score games. Ryan Tannehill is not exactly a future football Hall of Famer. Aaron Rodgers has a 55.1% win percentage in one score games but a 42.9% rate in games decided by three or fewer points.
With Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City will not continue to win all of their one score games. Given the randomness in one score games, I would guess they win about 65% of their one score games moving forward.
Mahomes gives Kansas City an edge because of his consistent ability to make plays. As an example, let’s look at his success rate on passing plays. After my opponent adjustments, Mahomes is predicted to convert 48.5% of pass plays against an average NFL defense, much better than the 43.2% NFL average.
These numbers over all plays means Mahomes is more likely to convert a critical first down when his team needs it most. For example, a short pass to Samaje Perine on 3rd and 9 iced the game against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Friday, January 31, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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