Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL player prop – On The Football Analytics Show, Evan Silva of Establish the Run anticipates more usage for Washington RB Austin Ekeler this weekend. Washington should be down in the second half against Philadelphia, and Ekeler tends to play more than Brian Robinson in these negative game scripts.
In addition, Philadelphia lost LB Nakobe Dean, a critical player in covering running backs. Evan likes Austin Ekeler over 25.5 receiving yards, -113 available at FanDuel (better number available at MGM).
NFL Same Game Parlay – On the Props and Hops podcast, host Matt Landes proposed the following same game parlay (SGP) on Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts to pro bettor Rob Pizzola.
- Anytime touchdown scorer, -135.
- Under 30.5 rushing yards, -113.
Hurts often gets short touchdowns from the tush push. However, he also sustained a leg injury last week that might limit his running against Washington. Hurts also might not run as much if the Eagles have a second half lead.
Because of the supposed negative correlation between the two legs, you can get +291 at FanDuel. Rob liked this SGP so much that he said he would go bet it, and you should too.
Matt does a great job with the Props and Hops podcast.
NFL anytime touchdown scorer – A few weeks ago in 5-Nuggets, Matt Freedman of Fantasy Life told us about an interesting result from his model. His numbers suggest the market can’t make the price high enough for anytime touchdown scorer.
That week, Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams caught a touchdown pass to cash on anytime touchdown scorer (-135).
This week, Matt’s numbers like Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown scorer at -225 at DraftKings. Despite the high price, Matt’s model gives a probability of 77.6% compared to the break even probability of 69.2%.
NFL trends – Washington and rookie QB Jayden Daniels have been a great playoff story. However, history does not favor them at Philadelphia.
Based on the Killer Sports database, these trends are working against Washington.
- Underdog of 5 or more points that had an upset win last week as an underdog of 5 or more points are 40.2% against the spread (121-180).
- Teams that have played three or more road games and won their last game straight up and against the spread are 34.7% against the spread (33-62).
I do not recommend making wagers only based on trends. However, they can play a role in your handicapping. My member numbers lean Washington +6 but these trends suggest not betting that spread.
NFL humor – Brian Schottenheimer as the new Cowboys coach is a joke, right? Nope.
A hilarious two minute rant from Cowboys fan Cameron Magruder.
Later, he added: “People also thought Ted Lasso was a bad hire… I’m just saying.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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