Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL touchdown prop – Matt Freedman of Betting Life has been running NFL numbers for fantasy football and player props for his entire career. This season, he notes that the market has underestimated the chance for a top running back to score a touchdown.
For example, Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams gets the majority of carries for his team, and Matt’s model gives a 67% chance that he scores a touchdown against Minnesota on Monday night.
There is value in Kyren Williams any time touchdown, -140 at FanDuel. Follow Matt Freedman for all of his NFL insights as he turns his attention towards the draft.
NFL rushing prop – NFL analytics expert Jim Sannes notes that Washington QB Jayden Daniels has run more later in the season. He dealt with a rib injury after week 6 and didn’t have more than 8 carries over the next five games.
Heading into week 12, Daniels had extra rest after playing on Thursday night in week 11. In five full games, since then, Daniels has averaged 10.4 carries. He has also easily had more than 51 rushing yards in four of these five games.
Against Tampa Bay, there is value in Jayden Daniels over 51.5 rushing yards. Follow Jim Sannes for all of his NFL insights.
College football championship game – Notre Dame’s offense got off to a rough start against Penn State. Then they seemed to get lucky late in the game, as they scored a long touchdown when a Penn State defender fell down and getting a Drew Allar interception.
However, Notre Dame did well in the underlying metrics. The Fighting Irish had a 52.1% success rate in the game compared to 46.2% for Penn State.
Success rate is a key metric for my member college football model. Members of The Power Rank get access to my prediction and upcoming analysis on Notre Dame vs Ohio State for the college football national championship.
Super Bowl Win Probability – I used my member NFL ratings as input to the Unabated futures simulator. Here are the Super Bowl win probabilities for the top 5 teams:
- Detroit, 25.3%
- Kansas City, 20.5%
- Baltimore, 12.5%
- Philadelphia, 9.7%
- Buffalo, 8.5%
My numbers are showing some value in Detroit +320 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel (23.8% break even probability). My numbers are way lower on Buffalo than the markets (+600 at FanDuel, 14.3% break even probability).
NFL humor – “Happy New Year! I know a lot of you felt like you had to go to celebrate. But just look at George Pickens. He was at home and he still watched the ball drop.” Annie Agar roasts the Pittsburgh Steeler for his atrocious performance against Cincinnati.
Listen to all 3:41 for some hilarious Tyreek Hill humor.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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