Looking for sharp betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Chicago at Indiana, WNBA – The Indiana Fever and rookie Caitlin Clark have struggled this season to an 1-8 record. However, the schedule has been difficult, as Indiana has played seven games against top teams (Connecticut, New York, Seattle and Las Vegas).
In contrast, the Chicago Sky have exceeded expectations with a 3-3 record. On the road at Indiana, Chicago is a 2.5 point favorite.
However, the expectations were different this preseason. On DraftKings, Chicago had a win total of 11.5 compared to 21.5 for Indiana. If these two teams had played on opening night, Indiana would have been a home favorite.
The early season results suggest a shift towards Chicago, but the market has shifted too much. There is value in Indiana +2.5 at home, -114 FanDuel (game tips at 1pm Eastern on Saturday).
French Open – In 2020, tennis bettor Gill Alexander noted the the incredible clay court stats of Iga Swiatek and bet her at 30-1 to win the French Open. The Polish woman won in dominant fashion.
On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Gill talked about the same type of clay court numbers for German Jan-Lennard Struff. This past Wednesday, Gill recommended betting Struff to win the men’s 2nd quarter at 12-1.
As of Saturday morning, Struff is in the third set rain delay against Alex De Minaur. Struff has gone from a slight underdog before the match to -310 on FanDuel at this delay (up a break in the third set). If he wins, Gill still likes Struff to make the semi-final from the second quarter (the price should be around +450).
College football rankings for 2024 – Bill Connelly of ESPN puts together his preseason SP+ rankings based on three factors:
- Performance over the past four seasons.
- Returning production.
- Recent recruiting, which now includes data on transfers.
Here are the top 5 teams in the nation along with a rating that gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team.
- Georgia, 36.3 (QB Carson Beck returns).
- Ohio State, 32.7 (QB Will Howard transferred in from Kansas State).
- Oregon, 30.8 (QB Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma).
- Texas, 29.5 (QB Quinn Ewers led the Longhorns to the playoff but will look over his shoulder at Arch Manning).
- Alabama, 29.1 (QB Jalen Milroe returns).
Michigan ranks 6th in Bill’s numbers despite having only 40% returning production, 126th out of 134 FBS teams. Check out Bill’s full rankings with an ESPN+ subscription.
Rookie Scouting Portfolio – Before the 2023 season, QB Tyson Bagent didn’t seem like an important acquisition for the Chicago Bears. The quarterback from Division II Shepard signed as an undrafted free agent.
However, Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, had Bagent as his 6th best quarterback prospect of 2023. Based on film study, he saw the accuracy and decision making that could lead to NFL success.
When Justin Fields got hurt, Bagent started four games and threw 143 pass attempts. In my adjusted numbers, Bagent had an expected passing success rate of 45.3%, an excellent rate compared to the NFL average of 42.3%.
Chicago decided to keep Bagent as the back up to rookie Caleb Williams in 2024. I highly recommend the Rookie Scouting Portfolio as a guide to rookies at skill positions that could impact the 2024 season.
Football humor – Comedian Joey Avery kills it with this segment on the kicker Harrison Butker. It is worth your time to watch all 1:40 of this.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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