The New York Jets are riding the hype train heading into the 2023 season.
The Jets acquired QB Aaron Rodgers to complement a defense that killed it last season. With a win total of 9.5, the market expects the Jets to make the playoffs and possibly push Buffalo for the AFC East division title.
However, there are some warning signs about this team.
First, there are questions about Aaron Rodgers. He will turn 40 years old this season, and his play fell off in Green Bay last season.
In my research, I’ve found success rate on passing plays as the most predictive metric for an offense. While there are multiple definitions of success rate, I use a simple criteria based on the yards the offense gains towards the next first down.
A play is a success if the offense gains the following fraction of these necessary yards:
- 50% on 1st down
- 70% on 2nd down
- 100% on 3rd, 4th down
The Power Rank specializes in taking this success rate for a QB and adjusting for opposing defenses. Based on this calculation, Rodgers with the Packers last season was predicted to have a passing success rate of 42.3% against an average NFL defense. This is below the NFL average of 42.8%.
Rodgers might have struggled because of a thumb injury that never seemed to heal last season. In addition, Green Bay had injuries at wide receiver.
With the Jets, Aaron Rogers will now have the services of WR Garrett Wilson. The second-year player out of Ohio State had 1.85 yards per route run last season compared to an NFL average of 1.5 for wide receivers.
In addition, Wilson put up these numbers with the QB incompetence of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White.
After Wilson, Rodgers will throw to his old buddies from Green Bay. Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb both rate roughly NFL average by yards per route run.
The Jets offense projects as NFL average. While this might seem like a knock on Aaron Rodgers, it’s actually a massive improvement from last season.
On defense, the Jets excelled in 2022. In my passing success rate adjusted for opposing QBs, the Jets ranked 3rd.
A huge reason was cornerback Sauce Gardner. The rookie out of Cincinnati had a PFF coverage grade of 90, an elite number on a scale of zero to a 100.
However, the defense had the good fortune of having the lowest negative impact due to injuries. This comes from a Football Outsiders metric that gives more weight to starters than backups.
In addition, the top three cornerbacks for the Jets did not miss a single game. This includes DJ Reed and Michael Carter in addition to Sauce Gardner. With the randomness inherent in injuries, the Jets are unlikely to have the same health and hence performance in 2023.
In addition, the Jets have a difficult schedule. In addition to two games against Buffalo and Miami, they also play the following teams:
- At Dallas, Week 2
- Kansas City, Week 4
- Philadelphia, Week 6
- Los Angeles Chargers, Week 9
I like the Jets under 9.5 wins (+110 at most sports books).
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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 5pm Eastern on Wednesday, August 24. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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