Looking for sports betting action this weekend? This is your curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL interception prop – This preseason, I highlighted the unsustainable interception rate of New York Giants QB Daniel Jones. However, this analysis could have also focused on Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts, as he threw six interceptions for a 1.1% interception rate in 2022.
My analysis was based on bad balls, or interceptions and pass defended, as a better way to predict interception. Since the start of the 2020 season, Hurts has a bad ball rate of 12.4%, worse than the 11.6% NFL average.
However, Hurts has improved each season as a young player. But even assuming much better performance, my model gives a 51.8% chance he throws a pick against the Los Angeles Rams.
In addition, Hurts often forced the ball down field to AJ Brown against Washington last week, although he only had 3 bad balls for a 8.1% rate. These types of throw support the value in Hurts over 0.5 interceptions, +130 (43.5% break even probability) at DraftKings.
Houston at Atlanta, NFL Week 5 – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, professional NFL bettor Fabian Sommer made the case for Houston’s offense. Houston OC Bobby Slowik, who came from San Francisco, has crafted an offense in which rookie QB C.J. Stroud can be efficient within structure.
In his handicapping, Fabian has found this type of scheme change to be predictive. You can also look at predictive metrics like passing success rate, as the Houston offense ranks a surprising 8th.
While he noted that other sharp bettors like Atlanta, Fabian likes Houston +1.5 on the road, and FanDuel has -105 on Saturday morning. Fabian outlined his betting process and analyzed a number of other teams like Cincinnati, Detroit and Indianapolis in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.
Carolina Panthers – On the Establish the Run podcast, Adam Levitan and Evan Silva noted the change in running back usage for the Panthers. Against Minnesota last week, starter Miles Sanders had a groin issue and ran for 19 yards on 13 carries. Chuba Hubbard had the better game with 41 yards on 14 carries.
Sanders was listed as questionable against Detroit with the groin issue, so there might be more carries for Hubbard again this week. The Establish the Run podcast is not only a great resource for fantasy but the insights also matter for betting props.
College football analytics – In my member rankings, five teams are within a point of each other at the top of the rankings. Another three teams are within a point of the 5th ranked team. It should be a wildly competitive college football playoff.
Let’s look at a few insights from my adjusted success rate numbers:
- Michigan. The offense has had better than 54% success rate against Rutgers and Nebraska, and this pushes the offense to 2nd in the nation on offense. QB JJ McCarthy has a PFF passing grade of 90, top 10 in the nation.
- Texas. While Georgia and Alabama usually have the best defense, the Longhorns are ranked 1st in 2023. While Texas often excels with high recruits, Bill Connelly noted that of the top six defensive linemen, four were 3 star recruits and none were top 50.
- Pac-12. The top of the offense rankings feature three teams from the soon to be defunct conference: Washington (1st), Oregon (3rd), USC (5th).
Members of The Power Rank have access to my full rankings and adjusted success rates, both on the site and in data file format.
Football humor – Former Ohio State QB Cardale Jones destroys a kid in the hospital at a college football video game? As himself? This gets even more hilarious when Jones talks about hockey. Start listening at 0:58.
Former Ohio State QB Cardale Jones really put up 98 points in NCAA Football against a kid in the hospital. ðŸ˜ðŸ˜‚@CJ1two's explanation is kind of amazing. pic.twitter.com/XLEl7o0pvg
— Pablo Torre Finds Out (@pablofindsout) October 4, 2023
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