Ohio State enters the season at #3 in the preseason AP poll. This might seem like a stretch after what happened against Michigan last year. 

In Columbus, Michigan scored a convincing 45-23 road win. Even worse than the scoreboard was the way it happened. 

With about seven minutes remaining in the game, Michigan had a 31-23 lead. This was a typical situation in which the team with the leads wants to take time off the clock. 

Ohio State knew this, and they had seven defenders near the line of scrimmage. These conservative run plays usually go the way of the defense. Except it didn’t this time.

Michigan RB Donovan Edwards found a seam, and the single high safety took a bad angle. Edwards ran around him for a 75 yard touchdown.

A few minutes later, Michigan had the ball again with a 3rd and 3. The offense and defense were in the same  formation as the last touchdown with a single difference: Ohio State brought the high safety near the line of scrimmage. 

The formation change didn’t matter. Edwards found a hole and scored an 85 yard touchdown run.

These plays reflected poorly on Ohio State’s defense. However, there is a huge random element in explosive plays. The research goes back to seminal work by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

For explosiveness, Bill looked at what amounts to yards per play on successful plays (A play is a success based on the definition used in looking at Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets). In college football, he found zero correlation between different parts of the season. I’ve also found very little predictability in explosiveness in the NFL.

The talking heads on broadcasts will rant about how the defensive scheme led to those big Michigan runs. They might lament the aggressiveness of Ohio State DC Jim Knowles, ignoring that his defense was mostly great. They ranked 4th in my adjusted success rate in 2022.

While scheme matters, the talking heads will not talk about the random element in explosive plays. A few plays against Michigan mask the massive improvement the defense made in the first year under Knowles. They ranked 45th in adjusted success rate in 2021 before he arrived. 

Ohio State’s struggles with explosive plays are clear when comparing their rank on success rate (4th) versus yards per play (49th). However, Knowles did not have the same discrepancy in 2021 at Oklahoma State (5th in success rate, 4th in yards per play). With the talent that Ohio State returns, the defense should continue to improve.

On offense, Ohio State must replace QB CJ Stroud, the 2nd overall pick of the NFL draft. Kyle McCord will start in the first game against Indiana, but he has not won the job over Devin Brown.

However, coach Ryan Day has an excellent track record on offense. Ohio State has an elite set of receivers, headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr. These receivers got so much separation against Michigan State last year they could have used a catapult to deliver the football.

A variety of trusted preseason metrics like the Buckeyes:

• 3rd in my market rankings based on win totals
• 2nd in SP+, a metrics based approach by Bill Connelly

Don’t let a few plays against Michigan fool you. Ohio State is not overrated at #3 in the preseason AP poll (I’ll give you my third overrated team on Saturday).

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It is easy for Michigan fans to dream this season. QB JJ McCarthy returns for his second year as a starter, and he has the talent to win the Heisman. 

Even if McCarthy doesn’t reach this ceiling, consider how Michigan’s QB situation compares with other top contenders.

• Georgia will start redshirt sophomore Carson Beck, who has 58 career pass attempts. They also replaced OC Todd Monken with former OC Mike Bobo.
• Ohio State will start Kyle McCord against Indiana on Saturday, but he has not won the job over Devin Brown.
• Alabama is considering Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at QB heading into their first game.

In addition, Alabama and Ohio State lost their QB to the first two overall picks of the NFL draft. Georgia will no longer have Stetson Bennett, the most accomplished QB in program history with back to back championships. 

Right now, Michigan has a better QB situation than these teams. In 2023, this is the true source of dreams for Michigan fans, a group that I’m a part of here in Ann Arbor.

Then, the preseason AP poll put Michigan at #2. That is most likely too high, as Michigan does have concerns. 

The offense should be great to exceptional. Michigan will be able to bludgeon inferior opponents with the run game. They should have an exceptional offensive line and one of the best RB tandems in college football with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.

The question is how much the offense lets McCarthy throw to receivers, a relative weakness on this team. WRs Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson return but need to improve on their total of 57 receptions from 2022.

The defense was good enough last season, but they ranked only 32nd in my success rate adjusted for opponent. Now, they must replace the leading pass rusher and two cornerbacks. 

CB Will Johnson will be fantastic, but Michigan has questions at the opposite CB position. Edge Jaylen Harrell returns after having the second highest tackle for loss and sack totals last year, but the defense will need another pass rusher to emerge. 

For the second year in a row, Michigan faces an out of conference schedule softer than a baby’s bottom. The early conference games are only marginally more challenging. Michigan should be 9-0 heading into a road trip to Penn State. They end with Ohio State at home in Ann Arbor.

To justify 2nd in the preseason poll, Michigan must make the championship game. The market at Caesars implies a 44% chance to make the playoff. 

Let’s assume that Michigan has a 50-50 chance to win the playoff semi-final. That leaves roughly a 1 in 5 chance that Michigan lives up to #2.

Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama all have higher national championship odds because of program history. For example, consider what Bob Stoll said on the last episode of The Football Analytics Show. 

By his compensated yards per play, Georgia has had a top 10 offense in five of the past six seasons. They have started three different QBs during this tenure. He doesn’t expect that to change with Carson Beck.

While Michigan should definitely be a top 5 team, they are overrated at #2 in the preseason poll.

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Last season, Sonny Dykes took over a TCU program that had parted with longtime legendary coach Gary Patterson. With the uncertainty, the Horned Frogs were picked 7th of 10 teams in the preseason Big 12 poll. 

Despite these low expectations, Dykes took TCU to the college football championship game against Georgia. While they got routed in that game, the program vastly exceeded expectations in 2022.

TCU comes into 2023 with much higher expectations. However, let’s not forget the good fortune they had a year ago. Let’s count down the top 5.

• 5. Down two against Baylor, TCU ran the field goal unit onto the field and kicked a game winner as time expired. Dykes talked about how they practice this play, but there was no room for error as the previous play left :17 on a running clock with no timeouts.
• 4. Michigan gifted TCU two interceptions returned for a touchdown in a playoff semi-final. TCU won by six points despite having fewer yards than Michigan.
• 3. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, a Heisman contender at the time, left the game against TCU with an injury and didn’t return. TCU came back to win 38-31.
• 2. TCU had a 5-0 record in one score games during the regular season. Record in one score games tends to regress to .500, and regression will have a much different effect on TCU than Oklahoma (0-5 in 2022).
• 1. The backup quarterback almost wins the Heisman.

That’s right, Max Duggan was not the starter when TCU took the field against Colorado to open the season. Chandler Morris won the job but got hurt in the first game.

Duggan had an incredible season and finished second in the Heisman voting. Now, the Los Angeles Chargers have waived him and only kept two QBs.

Heading into 2023, TCU has Morris to replace Duggan. This is a piece of good news amidst plenty of roster turnover. 

Morris will not have the services of TCU’s top three receivers from last season. This includes NFL first round draft pick Quentin Johnston.

The news might be worse on defense. They lost their most important player on all three levels of the defense. 

Sonny Dykes has excelled at using the transfer portal to upgrade his roster, both last year at TCU and the previous four years at SMU. He will need help again in 2023, as players like Oklahoma State WR JP Richardson (49 receptions, 503 yards in 2022) must make immediate contributions.

Even if they do get the transfer bump, TCU is unlikely to have the same good fortune as last season. They are overrated 17th in the preseason AP poll. My market rankings, which take season win totals and back out a rank and rating for each team, has TCU at 26th.

This overrated prediction might look silly in the early part of the season, as TCU should start 5-0 against weaker competition. They should be favored in the next two games at Iowa State and against BYU.

However, my numbers make them the underdog in four of their last five games. Don’t be surprised if they fall out of the top 25 during this difficult stretch.

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