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Kansas City vs Philadelphia, Super Bowl – After opening as a pick, the market almost immediately moved towards the Eagles. As of Saturday morning, Philadelphia remains a 1.5 point favorite.
However, my member numbers like Kansas City by 2. A big reason is pass offense, as the Chiefs rank first in my adjusted passing success rate.
In contrast, Philadelphia ranks 15th in my adjusted passing success rate. In addition, there remain questions as to the health of the shoulder of QB Jalen Hurts.
The numbers suggest value in Kansas City +1.5 or +110 moneyline. Just like against Cincinnati, I expect the markets to favor Kansas City by kick off in eight days.
Purdue at Indiana – Pro bettor Mike Craig expects a slow half court game based on the ability of both teams to limit transition opportunities. This implies that the game should feature fewer possessions than what we have seen in Big Ten play so far.
Indiana is more equipped than most teams to defend Purdue’s Zach Edey inside, as they play strong defense at the rim. On the flip side, 7’4″ Edey and Purdue’s defense should excel against an Indiana team that doesn’t shoot a high rate of 3 point shots.
Mike sees value in under 139.5, available at FanDuel on Saturday morning.
Miles Sanders rushing prop – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, pro bettor Hitman likes the over on the rushing yards prop for the Philadelphia RB.
While he only had 43 yards in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco, Hitman notes that other running backs got carries when Philadelphia had a big lead in the second half. As of Saturday morning, you can find over 58.5 rushing yards for Miles Sanders.
Super Bowl prop strategy – If you want to bet the over on Miles Sanders rushing prop above, you should do it now.
Pro bettor Rufus Peabody often has a huge portfolio of Super Bowl bets, and he gave out some great advice on Circles Off last year (listen at 21:15). He recommends betting early on overs or on any bet for something to happen (e.g. scoring a touchdown). With the public nature of Super Bowl betting, these numbers tend to go up.
If you want to bet the under or for an event not to happen, you can wait closer to kick off. The market might give you a better number.
Super Bowl longest field goal – On the Props & Hops podcast, NFL handicapper SharpClarke and host Matt Landes made the case for the Chiefs to make the longest field goal.
As the more analytics-driven team, the Eagles are more likely to go for it on 4th and short in field goal range. It helps that short-yardage situations are a forte for Philadelphia and a weakness for Kansas City.
This is available at even money at DraftKings in a three-way market (no field goals or a tie would lose) and at -115 offshore in a two-way market (no field goals or a tie would push).
College basketball adjusted efficiencies – Michigan has struggled to a 12-10 record this season. The Wolverines need a late season surge to make the NCAA tournament.
The biggest weakness for this team is defense. In my numbers, I take points per possession and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. Based on data from the current season, Michigan ranks 92nd, by far the worst of the Juwan Howard era.
For a limited time, you can check out my member college basketball rankings page for free, which includes:
- Ratings for each team that lets you generate my member college basketball predictions
- Offensive and defensive rankings and ratings by adjusted points per possession
You can also let me do the work for you, as a members of The Power Rank get my college basketball predictions the day before the game.
Ground Hog Day – On Tuesday when a furry animal emerged from a burrow, Matt Buchalter had a different take.
Data driven betting information
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