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Dallas at San Francisco – While it never feels good to bet an over against defenses that can get after the QB, pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks both the Cowboys and Niners offenses will still put up points.
San Francisco’s secondary is vulnerable, as Las Vegas with Jarrett Stidham showed a few weeks ago. Dak Prescott will emphasize getting the ball out quickly to his skill position players.
When San Francisco has the ball, Dallas will not have the services of two key cornerbacks on IR and will struggle to contain Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Purdy has also been excellent in extending plays with a 47% success rate when it has taken him 3+ seconds to throw the ball.
Rob thinks the total should be greater than 47, which suggests value on the over 46 (DraftKings). Check out all the great work Rob and coworkers do at The Hammer.
Australian Open – Well know tennis handicapper Drew Dinsick likes the underdog Jannik Sinner (+175 at DraftKings) against Stefanos Tsitsipas in a fourth round match on Sunday in Australia.
Sinner finds himself as an underdog for the first time this fortnight, as Greek 3-seed Tsitsipas is undefeated to this point in 2023. Tsitsipas holds a meaningful lead in the career head-to-head (4-1) with the most notable win coming in last year’s Australian Open quarterfinal (6-3 6-4 6-2).
Despite the recent history, Sinner has made meaningful improvements in his game since that match and has produced consistent results at the Grand Slam level. The market seems to be pricing recent form and historical head-to-head too aggressively in this match, and Drew’s Elo model for tennis gives a 44% win probability (+126) for Sinner.
Jacksonville at Kansas City – On the latest OddsBreakers podcast, Adam Chernoff makes the case for Kansas City -8.5, still somehow available at FanDuel (-118).
Adam notes the Jacksonville pass defense struggles against tight ends and running backs, so it will likely be overmatched by TE Travis Kelce and RB Jerrick McKinnon. In addition, Patrick Mahomes is a major step up in class for the Jaguars. Check out their opposing QBs of late:
- Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler against the Jets in Week 16.
- Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel against the Texans in Week 17.
- Joshua Dobbs against the Titans in Week 18.
While Jacksonville’s recent record and stats are impressive, they will find it difficult to continue their playoff run after Kansas City.
Injuries – There are no significant QB injuries, so let’s dig into other key players based on ESPN.
- Cincinnati OT Johan Williams and G Alex Cappa will both miss the game at Buffalo. OT La’el Collins is on injured reserve, so Joe Burrow will be without three starting linemen.
- Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is listed as questionable with a toe injury. However, he appears on the injured list every week and hasn’t missed a game yet. Lawrence will play at Kansas City.
- Kansas City WR Mecole Hardman is out with a pelvis injury.
- Philadelphia CB Avonte Maddox is out against the New York Giants. He had a stellar 70.3 PFF coverage grade this season.
New York Giants at Philadelphia – Chris Bennett books the NFL market at Circa Sports Book and opened with Philadelphia -7. He immediately got some bets on the favorite, but Circa has settled on -8 as of Saturday morning.
Chris also noted how well the Giants offense has played lately, so he doesn’t care too much that Philadelphia won at the Giants 48-22 in Week 14. He also likes the dual threat of QB Daniel Jones and thinks the Giants can win outright.
Chris also discussed his background as a professional bettor, his edge in baseball and his general NFL bookmaking process in a great episode of The Football Analytics Show.
College football accuracy – See how The Power Rank member numbers did against SP+ of Bill Connelly and Adv Stat Previews of Parker Fleming in Andrew Percival’s CFB Picker. He tracks a variety of spread predictors by a variety of metrics.
NFL humor – “Based on his clock management skills, I don’t think that was nicotine.” Annie also rips on the Harbaughs and Urban Meyer in a classic.
Data driven betting information
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