Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Atlanta at Cincinnati, NFL Week 7 – Cincinnati’s offense showed a lot of good things last week, as they lined up in shotgun on 52 of 54 snaps. This made both the run and pass game more effective, as they had a 60.4% success rate against New Orleans.
Pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola of The Hammer thinks the Bengals should have their way with a Falcons defense that lacks a pass rush and will miss CB Casey Hayward Jr. In addition, he points out the Falcons have played two solid opponents on the road: the Rams and Bucs. In each game, they were trailing by 18 or more points headed into the 4th quarter.
Also, the analysis that members of The Power Rank received also liked Cincinnati side. You can still find Cincinnati -6.5 on Saturday morning.
NBA win total projections – Kostya Medvedovsky, creator of the DARKO NBA player projection system, posted NBA win totals for this season. The spectrum of NBA teams ranges from Boston at the top to Detroit at the bottom.
One surprising element in his model is preseason games. Kostya has found predictive value in these seemingly meaningless games in many sports, even the NFL.
Preseason data suggests that Chicago might be undervalued, and they beat Miami on the road in their first game. The data hates LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers for the second year in a row, and the Lakers have started 0-2.
NFL teaser – With Wong teasers, you move point spreads through the key numbers of 3 and 7. However, with the volatility of the NFL this season, these teasers have gotten burnt more often than J.C. Jackson.
On this week’s Edge Rush podcast, professional bettor Hitman talked about two appealing teaser legs:
- Indianapolis +8.5 at Tennessee
- New England -2 vs Chicago
Hitman notes that the Indianapolis offense has hit its stride with a no huddle offense, as Matt Ryan threw for almost 400 yards against Jacksonville last week. In the second game, he likes the match up of a Bill Belichick defense against a one dimensional Chicago offense.
Even with the volatility of teasers this season, there is a strong case for the Colts and Patriots in Week 7.
College football rankings – Members of The Power Rank have access to how college football teams stack up based on data from the current season. These numbers are based on success rate, points, yards per play, all adjusted for opponent with my algorithms.
The following rankings include a rating, which gives how many points better a team is than an FBS average team, based on data from the current season.
- Georgia, (7-0), 29.6
- Ohio State, (6-0), 28.5
- Michigan, (7-0), 22.7
- Alabama, (6-1), 22.5
- Tennessee, (6-0), 22.4
- Texas, (5-2), 20.0
- Illinois, (6-1), 19.2
- TCU, (6-0), 14.4
- Mississippi, (7-0), 14.1
- LSU, (5-2), 13.6
Nick Saban had enough nightmares this week because of Jalin Hyatt. Now, he has to come to grips with falling out of the top three and slumming it with Michigan and Tennessee.
Illinois has been fantastic this season, especially on defense. Bret Bielema’s team travels to Michigan on November 19th in what could be game between teams with a total of one loss.
Members of The Power Rank have access to these numbers for all teams in the college football data file.
Injuries – The NFL injury information is obtained from ESPN. The college football information comes from USA Today.
- New England QB Mac Jones was limited at practice Friday and is questionable with an ankle injury.
- Carolina QB Baker Mayfield is now doubtful against Tampa Bay with an ankle injury.
- Denver QB Russell Wilson has a hamstring injury, and coach Nathaniel Hackett said he is a game time decision against the New York Jets.
- Washington QB Carson Wentz had surgery on his right ring finger, and he is out at least this weekend’s game against the Packers.
- Baylor QB Blake Shapen is questionable with a head injury. Baylor plays Kansas, who will not have QB Jalon Daniels.
- Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa is questionable against Northwestern with a lower leg injury. Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski is also questionable with a concussion.
- Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is questionable against Penn State with a head injury.
Kansas State at TCU – On The Football Analytics Show, Parker Fleming explained how TCU has revived its defense after a complete disaster in 2021. Instead of a complicated defense in which former coach Gary Patterson micro managed every player, the players now have more freedom to make plays.
TCU still struggles with big plays on pass defense, but Parker doesn’t think that matters as much against Kansas State, a team that looks to break big runs with RB Deuce Vaughn and QB Adrian Martinez.
Parker’s numbers like TCU by 5 in this game, and he expects his alma mater to continue their undefeated season. To get all of Parker’s college football insights, check out the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show.
Davante Adams – Aaron Rodgers and the offense have scored 10 points in the last six quarters, and they got pounded by the Jets this past week. As spoofed by Bleacher Report’s Gridiron Heights, perhaps they miss Davante Adams?
This is also my mea culpa on thinking the Packers were fine without Adams. When the world changes, I change my mind and hope it’s not small sample size.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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