Matt LaFleur has done a remarkable job with the Green Bay offense.
Davante Adams, possibly the best WR in the NFL, went to Las Vegas this off season, and the Packers seemed left with scraps at receiver. Despite this loss, LaFleur has kept the offense rolling with these three top targets this season:
- Romeo Doubs, a rookie 4th round pick from Nevada with 29 targets.
- Allen Lazard, a steady veteran with 24 targets.
- Randall Cobb, who might be third with 23 targets but has 2.39 yards per route run, a career high.
Of course, it helps to have a Hall of Fame QB in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 7th in my adjusted passing success rate this season.
The Packers did score zero second half points in a shocking loss to the New York Giants last week. More on that later.
In contrast, it’s hard to figure out the New York Jets with all of their moving parts and new pieces. QB Zach Wilson has come back from injury and played the last two games.
With both Wilson and Joe Flacco, the Jets have leaned on two rookies in the passing game.
- WR Garrett Wilson, 10th overall pick, 39 targets.
- RB Breece Hall, 2nd round pick, 28 targets.
Second year WR Elijah Moore and veteran Corey Davis are still around, but the two rookies lead the team in targets.
In a massive 40-17 win over Miami this past week, the Jets had a 47.8% passing success rate (43.0% NFL average). Wilson said “the expectation is changing. We’re expecting to come in here and win… and be shocked when we don’t.”
How quickly this kid forgets his 3-10 record as a starter last year.
In addition, Wilson led the Jets to a 34.2% passing success rate the previous week against Pittsburgh, a defense that has regressed to NFL average this season.
There is little evidence the Jets have turned the corner on offense, as they rank 26th in my passing success rate adjusted for schedule. My market model, which takes closing spreads and considers the starting QB, sees no difference between Flacco and Wilson.
The Jets travel to the Packers. Given the results from last week, it seems like a great spot to buy low on Green Bay and sell high on New York. My numbers like the Packers by 10.5 points.
Green Bay is making a trip back from London after their game against the Giants. While this might give a slight edge to the Jets, I still see value in Packers -7, -115 (available at FanDuel as of Thursday).
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter around 1pm Eastern on Thursday, October 13. 2022. Most of the market has moved to Green Bay -7.5 as of Friday morning.
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