We’re back with your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL market rankings – One component of The Power Rank’s NFL model comes from market win totals. Each team gets a rating which is consistent with the market win total and the team’s schedule.
For 2022, here are the top 5 teams (the rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average NFL team).
- Buffalo, 6.8
- Kansas City, 6.1
- Tampa Bay, 6.0
- Los Angeles Rams, 4.9
- Green Bay, 4.4
Tampa Bay signed veteran wide receiver Julio Jones, and the markets liked this move. Compared to the beginning of July, the rating for the Bucs has risen 0.6 points.
Based on this model, Tampa Bay is a 1.5 point favorite at Dallas week 1. Predictions for the first two weeks of the season are available to members of The Power Rank.
NFL season player props – From the 2021 season, Connor Allen analyzed 243 season long NFL player prop (Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Receiving Touchdowns, etc). He found that the under hit in two of every three bets (66.7%). The hit rate for the under was even higher in categories like rushing touchdowns.
The sample size is small, so you should not blindly bet the under based on this data. The analysis does suggest that injuries play a big role in the outcome of these bets.
Cy Young – If you’re looking for projections for who will win the Cy Young, you may have stumbled upon ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor. However, its projections do not match with odds-on favorites.
For instance, while Miami’s Sandy Alcantara has been a sizable favorite for weeks, ESPN says the likeliest winner is Los Angeles Dodger Tony Gonsolin.
Their model comes from Bill James and Rob Neyer, who are obviously two of the foremost sabermetricians in the universe. However, this model does not come close to matching the markets.
One approach that seems more predictive is from Tom Tango and charted by Baseball Musings. If you don’t want to bet on the favorites, this model suggests value in Chicago White Sox hurler Dylan Cease and Atlanta’s Max Fried.
NFL Betting Tools – Even if you aren’t betting on NFL Preseason games beginning next week, you will want to have tools at your disposal for finding the best prices.
NFL analyst Robby Greer will have you prepared. His site includes the standard odds calculator that provides a payout and an implied probability based on odds and money wagered.
But, if you click the > button, you also get a Cover Probability calculator and a Hold Calculator. The former gives you expected value for your line compared with the market’s line, and the latter gives you the hold (book’s profit margin per money wagered) based upon the odds of each side.
MLB Trade Deadline – Is it weird to be refreshing Twitter more frequently than usual this weekend and having several alarms set in advance of 6:00pm Tuesday’s MLB Trade Deadline? If so, nobody asked you anyway.
Former Kansas City outfielder Andrew Benintendi was dealt to the Yankees this week and already their odds to win the World Series shortened from 4/1 to +350 (FOX Bet). Friday night, Jeff Passan reported Luis Castillo is leaving Cincinnati for Seattle. It has not affected their pennant or World Series odds.
When charting other big names that will likely be uprooted, a couple of ballclubs that look to be active include the Dodgers, Padres and Cardinals.
New players do not guarantee anything, but value is lost once news breaks, so plan accordingly and be obsessed like me.
Breaking into sports analytics – While he was working on his Ph.D. in neuroscience, Nick Wan dabbled with sports data. One day, Justin Wolfers of the New York Times messaged him about his work on Arizona State.
Nick had looked into whether the fans impacted opposing free throw shooters. This story eventually landed on the front page of the newspaper.
While this work didn’t directly lead to a job in sports, the experience gave Nick the confidence to seek out these jobs. A team like the Cincinnati Reds wanted to hire analytics folks with a broad background, and now Nick works as their Director of Analytics.
On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Nick talked about many aspects of analytics, including working as one of two data scientists for a Fortune 500 company.
Learning from History – One book I’ve been reading this summer is Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, a study on what happens when empires and nations rise and fall.
Author Ray Dalio listed several determinants for a country’s overall health. Among them is the ability for that country’s population to learn history. As Dalio put it: “Learning from one’s own experiences is not adequate because… many of the most important lessons don’t come in one’s lifetime” (p. 72).
I believe this advice is also salient in sports betting. Crafting a process and learning from mistakes are important, but you should not do this alone. Study others. Your experiences are few compared with the many bettors who have done it for years.
For starters, check out:
- Alan Boston, long time pro college basketball bettor, on home court.
- Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor, on wind in MLB stadiums.
Data driven betting information
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