With the Sweet 16 set for the 2019 NCAA tournament, these are new win probabilities for the remaining teams.
These numbers are based on my college basketball team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule.
In addition, I’ve removed the 6 games that Duke’s Zion Williamson missed to get a more accurate assessment of Duke with their superstar. This adjustment was not made for my pre-tournament win probabilities.
1. Duke, 27.1%
2. Virginia, 22.3%
3. Gonzaga, 12.2%
4. Michigan State, 11.0%
5. North Carolina, 5.8%
6. Michigan, 4.9%
7. Kentucky, 4.8%
8. Tennessee, 3.8%
9. Texas Tech, 3.0%
10. Purdue, 1.6%
11. Auburn, 1.1%
12. Houston, 1.0%
13. Florida State, 0.7%
14. LSU, 0.3%
15. Virginia Tech, 0.3%
16. Oregon, 0.1%
You can play with the round by round probabilities in the interactive visual.
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