Finally!! Win probabilities for the 2019 NCAA tournament

The field of 68 is set, and I’ve used my college basketball team rankings to calculate the win probabilities for each team. 

In addition, the results gets shown in an interactive data visualization. Hover over a team to get its probability to advance through each round. Hover over a game to see the odds that each team wins that game.

To check it out, click here.

You can get the tournament win probabilities by hovering over the center dot.  However, sometimes it’s easier to look at these results in a list. 

Here are the win probabilities for the top 20 teams in 2019.

1. Virginia, 21.0%
2. Duke, 18.2%
3. North Carolina, 12.5%
4. Gonzaga, 12.0%
5. Michigan State, 10.9%
6. Tennessee, 6.5%
7. Michigan, 6.3%
8. Kentucky, 4.5%
9. Texas Tech, 2.2%
10. Purdue, 1.0%
11. Florida State, 0.8%
12. Wisconsin, 0.5%
13. Houston, 0.5%
14. Virginia Tech, 0.5%
15. Kansas, 0.4%
16. Iowa State, 0.4%
17. LSU, 0.3%
18. Auburn, 0.3%
19. Buffalo, 0.2%
20. Louisville, 0.2%

You can use these numbers to apply the contrarian ideas I write about in my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

Or, if you don’t have much time, you can let me do the work for you.  My full bracket advice optimizes your chances to win your pool.  To learn more, click here.


  1. How do I find the cheat sheet referenced in the podcasts?

  2. John Terlemezian says

    Dear Ed: Do you analyze pro baseball?


  1. […] In addition, I’ve removed the 6 games that Duke’s Zion Williamson missed to get a more accurate assessment of Duke with their superstar.  This adjustment was not made for my pre-tournament win probabilities. […]

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