When I was working on my research on winning your bowl pool, I wondered if the same strategies apply to NFL pools. You would need one which requires picking game winners straight up and assigning confidence points.
I sent an email to my newsletter list, and I was surprised how many people said they were in an NFL pick ’em pool. On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I describe how you would go about winning an NFL pool in week 15, 2017.
In the show, I describe:
- How to assign confidence points to the 16 NFL games
- The 3 games in which you should have a lot of confidence this week
- How to find contrarian choices, essential for pools larger than 30 people
The inefficiencies in picking games based on Yahoo data are insane, as I discuss in the last part about making contrarian choices. Remember, this is the same logic that goes into college football bowl pools.
To listen on iTunes, click here.
To listen on the site, click on the right pointing triangle.
The following gives the confidence points for each game based on my member numbers. The number in parentheses is the win probability for the favorite.
16. (79.6%) New Orleans will beat New York Jets.
15. (75.4%) Minnesota will beat Cincinnati.
14. (74.2%) Jacksonville will beat Houston.
13. (69.0%) Philadelphia will beat New York Giants.
12. (67.6%) Washington will beat Arizona.
11. (67.6%) Detroit will beat Chicago.
10. (64.8%) Baltimore will beat Cleveland.
9. (62.7%) Atlanta will beat Tampa Bay.
8. (62.1%) Carolina will beat Green Bay.
7. (60.0%) Seattle will beat Los Angeles Rams.
6. (59.1%) Kansas City will beat Los Angeles Chargers.
5. (58.5%) Buffalo will beat Miami.
4. (57.3%) Denver will beat Indianapolis.
3. (56.6%) Tennessee will beat San Francisco.
2. (52.5%) Oakland will beat Dallas.
1. (51.9%) Pittsburgh will beat New England.