On this episode of the Football Analytics Show, I discuss the 3 stories that jumped out at me when I first looked at my 2017 preseason college football rankings. Among the topics of discussion:
- The factor that can really screw up my team rankings based on points.
- The 3 teams that might have been one hit wonders in 2016.
- The blue blood program primed for a rebound in 2017. Texas? Notre Dame? Nebraska? So many teams to pick from.
- The Pac-12 team in the top 10 that could be overrated despite their strong past performance.
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I don’t know Ed’s personal opinion or if he vouches for his system 100% but I can poke a bunch of holes in this garbage.
This is the same guy who thought UW was overrated heading into last season because they only won 7 games. He says Chris Petersen’s 2nd season wasn’t very good. Dude, they had a chance to win every game that season, it was a major rebuilding job with barely any returning starters and a team loaded with freshman and sophomores. The 2015 UW season is actually a good test for a fan. If you thought it was a bad season for UW, you are a moron.
On my website I compared that season for Petersen to Stoops first season, Carroll’s first season, Saban’s first season, etc and the similarities were quite strong (rebuilding year, young team, new coach, good metrics despite 6-7 wins). All of those guys won the NC within the next two years. Not saying Petersen will do the same but his success last season was damn close.
Heading into last season I called Oregon the most overrated team in the Pac-12 and said there was a chance they’d collapse. (It’s on my website) The year before they were held together by Vernon Adams and Buckner on D. It was an easy call.
The most overrated team heading into 2017 is easily Stanford. They were #13 in SRS but #30 in FEI (combined S&P+ and F+). They benefitted from USC’s ascension without beating that USC team. Their best win in league play aside from USC was the 7th best team…UCLA. Their offense scored a total of 9 points against the two best defenses in the league. Stanford’s defense will probably keep them in most games but with similar quarterback play they are a 6-8 win team at best.
The hype Stanford is getting is laughable…horrible offense last season and there’s no reason to think it gets better with no McCaffrey and the same eggheads at QB.
Dr. Ed Feng says
Thanks for the comment. At least we agree Stanford has issues at QB.
And yes, I was wrong on Washington last year.
Kudos for replying to a dickhead.
Where would Washington rank if you exclude recency bias from your rankings?