THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

NBA playoff win probabilities for 2015

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

nba_playoffs_2015You want to know which team will win the NBA playoffs.

Can Golden State continue their magical season and win the championship? Or will another contender like San Antonio or Cleveland steal the crown?

I had a tough time calculating playoff win probabilities this year because of Cleveland and San Antonio. Both these teams started the season slow.

However, San Antonio has an aging core that won the title last season, and Cleveland has the best player on the planet in LeBron James.

I calculated win probabilities based on my NBA team rankings that take the margin of victory in regular season games and adjust for strength of schedule. It gave Golden State a 56% chance to win the title, which seemed too high.

As an alternative, I estimated the late season form of San Antonio and Cleveland through the betting markets. I took the closing point spread in all games since late February and applied my ranking algorithm to adjust for strength of schedule.

In these market rankings, Golden State is still the best team. However, their rating is only about one point better than San Antonio and Cleveland. The difference was more than 3 points in my team rankings.

With the market rankings, Golden State has a 39.5% to win the NBA championship. They benefit from a first round matchup between San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers, their toughest competition in the West.

To see all of my NBA win probabilities, check out this interactive visual from Andrew Phillips of Chartball. Hover over a team to see its chance to advance through each round. Hover over a circle to find the likelihood that each team wins a round.

This list gives the title chances for all 16 NBA teams in the playoffs.

1. Golden State, 39.5%.
2. Cleveland, 26.8%.
3. San Antonio, 14.3%.
4. Atlanta, 5.2%.
5. Los Angeles Clippers, 5.1%.
6. Houston, 2.8%.
7. Memphis, 1.7%.
8. Chicago, 1.2%.
9. Toronto, 1.0%.
10. Portland, 0.8%.
11. Washington, 0.7%.
12. Dallas, 0.5%.
13. Boston, 0.1%.
14. New Orleans, 0.1%.
15. Milwaukee, 0.1%.
16. Brooklyn, 0.1%.

I will update the interactive visual the morning after each day of games, so check back for the latest win probabilities.

Filed Under: Basketball analytics, Golden State Warriors, NBA

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member