What do the first selection committee rankings mean for the college football playoff? What can analytics say about the odds that each team ends up in the top 4 on December 7?
First, let’s recognize the limitations of analytics. Numbers won’t tell you how far Auburn will drop if they lost a 5 overtime game to Ole Miss this Saturday. I also have no adjustments for committee politics or how much Mike Tranghese hates the ACC.
However, analytics based on margin of victory and yards per play lets us accurately forecast the win probability of each game. With some reasonable assumptions on committee behavior, computer simulations give the playoff odds for all 25 teams in the first committee rankings.
To see the playoff chances for your team and read my analysis on Bleacher Report, click here.