Division series win probabilities for the 2014 MLB playoffs

My team rankings and adjustments for starting pitcher give these numbers.

• Washington 61.1% over San Francisco
• Los Angeles Dodgers 73.3% over St. Louis
• Los Angeles Angels 66.2% over Kansas City
• Detroit 59.7% over Baltimore

These win probabilities start with my MLB team rankings, which take run differential and adjust for strength of schedule. Also, for the first time, I adjust for cluster luck based on the regular season.

In addition, the projections consider starting pitching through xFIP, an ERA type statistics that captures the skill of a pitcher through strike outs, walks and fly ball rate.

Daily predictions for each game appear on the predictions page.

Assumptions behind the calculations

Michael Wacha is not projected to start for St. Louis, which leaves John Lackey and Shelby Miller to start game 3 and 4.

I’m assuming Gio Gonzalez and Yusmeiro Petit start for Washington and San Francisco respectively in game 4.

Note that Baltimore is the only team with home advantage that doesn’t have the higher odds to win the 5 games series.