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College Football Predictions, October 1, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

Wisconsin (7) will beat Nebraska (11) by 6.9 at home. Nebraska has a 0.34 chance of beating Wisconsin. The line favors Wisconsin by 10 at home. With no significant injuries on either side, The Power Rank suggests that this line shows irrational exuberance over Wisconsin’s new quarterback Russell Wilson. However, let’s take a closer look at the teams. Wisconsin runs the ball behind a huge offensive line. Nebraska has given up 4.7 yards per carry to Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse (169 total yards) and 5.9 yards per carry to Washington’s Chris Polk (130 yards). Unless the defense steps up, it will be difficult for Nebraska to get the ball back from Wisconsin late in the game. Stay away from this game.

Iowa State (51) will beat Texas (39) by 0.1 at home. Texas has a 0.50 chance of beating Iowa State. Perhaps this is the true test of The Power Rank’s early season rankings, as the line favors Texas by 9.5 on the road. In reality, it will test the progress of Texas sophomore quarterback Case McCoy and the offense. Texas has earned a rating of 4.7. If one believes in this line of Texas by 9.5, then they should actually have a rating of 14.2. In other words, Texas is as good as Texas A&M. With the weak schedule Texas has played against Rice, BYU and UCLA, it’s difficult to think they have made this jump. Take Iowa State.

Texas A&M (12) will beat Arkansas (15) by 1.3 at a neutral site. Arkansas has a 0.47 chance of beating Texas A&M.

Alabama (2) will beat Florida (23) by 9.4 on the road. Florida has a 0.29 chance of beating Alabama.

Boise State (1) will beat Nevada (31) by 20.2 at home. Nevada has a 0.13 chance of beating Boise State.

LSU (4) will beat Kentucky (66) by 25.1 at home. Kentucky has a 0.09 chance of beating LSU.

Oklahoma (5) will beat Ball State (102) by 34.8 at home. Ball State has a 0.04 chance of beating Oklahoma.

Stanford (6) will beat UCLA (90) by 28.6 at home. UCLA has a 0.06 chance of beating Stanford.

Auburn (9) will beat South Carolina (14) by 0.7 on the road. South Carolina has a 0.48 chance of beating Auburn.

TCU (10) will beat SMU (85) by 25.1 at home. SMU has a 0.09 chance of beating TCU.

Virginia Tech (16) will beat Clemson (20) by 5.4 at home. Clemson has a 0.38 chance of beating Virginia Tech.

Arizona State (17) will beat Oregon State (67) by 15.4 at home. Oregon State has a 0.19 chance of beating Arizona State.

Ohio State (18) will beat Michigan State (26) by 6.3 at home. Michigan State has a 0.36 chance of beating Ohio State.

Notre Dame (21) will beat Purdue (91) by 14.3 on the road. Purdue has a 0.21 chance of beating Notre Dame.

Georgia (24) will beat Mississippi State (25) by 3.9 at home. Mississippi State has a 0.41 chance of beating Georgia.

Pittsburgh (27) will beat South Florida (28) by 3.3 at home. South Florida has a 0.42 chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Illinois (29) will beat Northwestern (81) by 14.2 at home. Northwestern has a 0.21 chance of beating Illinois.

Tennessee (30) will beat Buffalo (114) by 25.3 at home. Buffalo has a 0.09 chance of beating Tennessee.

Navy (32) will beat Air Force (54) by 7.8 at home. Air Force has a 0.33 chance of beating Navy.

Utah (34) will beat Washington (42) by 4.8 at home. Washington has a 0.39 chance of beating Utah.

West Virginia (35) will beat Bowling Green (92) by 16.0 at home. Bowling Green has a 0.18 chance of beating West Virginia.

USC (36) will beat Arizona (62) by 8.9 at home. Arizona has a 0.30 chance of beating USC.

Kansas State (40) will beat Baylor (37) by 2.1 at home. Baylor has a 0.45 chance of beating Kansas State.

North Carolina State (49) will beat Georgia Tech (43) by 2.3 at home. Georgia Tech has a 0.45 chance of beating North Carolina State.

Texas Tech (44) will beat Kansas (96) by 10.6 on the road. Kansas has a 0.27 chance of beating Texas Tech.

Hawaii (46) will beat Louisiana Tech (76) by 3.3 on the road. Louisiana Tech has a 0.42 chance of beating Hawaii.

North Carolina (47) will beat East Carolina (87) by 6.6 on the road. East Carolina has a 0.35 chance of beating North Carolina.

Michigan (48) will beat Minnesota (78) by 9.8 at home. Minnesota has a 0.29 chance of beating Michigan.

Tulsa (50) will beat North Texas (113) by 20.0 at home. North Texas has a 0.13 chance of beating Tulsa.

Northern Illinois (52) will beat Central Michigan (107) by 11.5 on the road. Central Michigan has a 0.25 chance of beating Northern Illinois.

Connecticut (53) will beat Western Michigan (70) by 6.7 at home. Western Michigan has a 0.35 chance of beating Connecticut.

Penn State (55) will beat Indiana (100) by 9.5 on the road. Indiana has a 0.29 chance of beating Penn State.

Louisville (56) will beat Marshall (106) by 17.2 at home. Marshall has a 0.17 chance of beating Louisville.

Temple (57) will beat Toledo (68) by 5.3 at home. Toledo has a 0.38 chance of beating Temple.

Florida International (58) will beat Duke (86) by 8.9 at home. Duke has a 0.30 chance of beating Florida International.

Fresno State (71) will beat Mississippi (59) by 0.7 at home. Mississippi has a 0.48 chance of beating Fresno State.

Cincinnati (61) will beat Miami (OH) (79) by 0.8 on the road. Miami (OH) has a 0.48 chance of beating Cincinnati.

Brigham Young (64) will beat Utah State (63) by 2.8 at home. Utah State has a 0.44 chance of beating Brigham Young.

Southern Miss (65) will beat Rice (111) by 16.0 at home. Rice has a 0.18 chance of beating Southern Miss.

Syracuse (69) will beat Rutgers (80) by 4.9 at home. Rutgers has a 0.39 chance of beating Syracuse.

Ohio (72) will beat Kent State (105) by 13.2 at home. Kent State has a 0.23 chance of beating Ohio.

Colorado (73) will beat Washington State (74) by 3.3 at home. Washington State has a 0.42 chance of beating Colorado.

Boston College (75) will beat Wake Forest (88) by 6.7 at home. Wake Forest has a 0.35 chance of beating Boston College.

Troy (77) will beat UAB (109) by 13.3 at home. UAB has a 0.22 chance of beating Troy.

Houston (82) will beat UTEP (104) by 4.8 on the road. UTEP has a 0.39 chance of beating Houston.

Arkansas State (84) will beat Western Kentucky (112) by 6.8 on the road. Western Kentucky has a 0.35 chance of beating Arkansas State.

Virginia (89) will beat Idaho (98) by 6.4 at home. Idaho has a 0.35 chance of beating Virginia.

Louisiana Lafayette (93) will beat Florida Atlantic (101) by 6.1 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 0.36 chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.

Army (94) will beat Tulane (115) by 9.8 at home. Tulane has a 0.29 chance of beating Army.

Colorado State (99) will beat San Jose State (108) by 5.7 at home. San Jose State has a 0.37 chance of beating Colorado State.

Middle Tennessee State (103) will beat Memphis (120) by 22.6 at home. Memphis has a 0.11 chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

New Mexico State (116) will beat New Mexico (118) by 3.2 on the road. New Mexico has a 0.43 chance of beating New Mexico State.

Eastern Michigan (117) will beat Akron (119) by 6.9 at home. Akron has a 0.34 chance of beating Eastern Michigan.

Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2011, College Football Analytics, Iowa State Cyclones, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Texas Longhorns, Wisconsin Badgers

Trackbacks

  1. Wisconsin surges to 2nd in the college football rankings says:
    October 3, 2011 at 9:53 pm

    […] Frederick, Peter Konz, Kevin Zeitler and Josh Oglesby open up holes for the running game. In our preview of the game, we noted that Nebraska’s highly touted defense had given up 4.7 yards per carry to Fresno […]

    Reply

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