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England vs Argentina, more than just sports

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

This article was co-authored by Eli Feng, a rising senior at Community High School as of publication on July 15, 2026.

In a sweltering summer, the World Cup climbs towards its apex as England takes on Argentina. However, it’s not 2026. 

Forty years ago in 1986, England met Argentina in the quarterfinals in Mexico, a match made famous by the hand of God. But before that match started, the two nations were locked in a different struggle. The Falklands War loomed over that match, as the World Cup has always been about more than sports. 

To understand that conflict, let’s go back to post World War II Argentina, a country controlled by military strongmen with various levels of United States support. Leopoldo Galtieri took control in 1981 but was having problems with the economy.

To boost his popularity, Galtieri invaded the Falkland Islands off the coast of his country. The Argentines considered these islands as part of their country despite British rule. 

The Argentine military took over and threw out the small number of British forces. This seemed to have the desired effect for Galtieri as crowds cheered the conquest in the capital Buenos Aires.

The British responded in the strongest terms as Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent a large force to retake the islands. In the end, the British Marines and paratroopers were able to defeat the larger force of Argentinian conscripts. Both sides lost hundreds of lives in the conflict.

During the war, Diego Maradona and the Argentina national team were in Spain for the World Cup. As Jonathan Wilson describes in his book Angels with Dirty Faces, they found out the truth that their country would lose this war to England in the neutral Spanish newspapers. The news back in Argentina was biased.

Four years later, England and Argentina faced off in the quarterfinals of the World Cup in Mexico. Early in the second half, an English defender mishit a clearance, sending it towards Diego Maradona. Maradona contacted the ball, popping it over the goalkeeper and into the goal.

In real time, it seemed like Maradona headed the ball. Replay would have shown the ball went off his hand, and Maradona later described it as the hand of God. Argentina beat England 2-1 to advance and eventually win the World Cup.

In a 2019 documentary, Maradona related the goal to the Falklands War. “It was a nice feeling like some sort of symbolic revenge against the English.” 

40 years later, Argentina will play England again in the World Cup. Great Britain still controls the Falkland Islands, but these islands still loom large in the hearts of the Argentina players.

Noted added on July 16, 2026: After Argentina beat England 2-1 in the 2026 World Cup, a player appeared on the field with a banner that effectively said the Falkland Islands belong to Argentina. The war still matters to the Argentine people 44 years later.

Filed Under: World Cup

3 USMNT insights from a player based model

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Pumped about the World Cup? Looking for more data driven insights into the USMNT?

Over the past month, I’ve worked on a player based model for international teams using the ratings for FC 26, the video game by EA Sports. They employ an army of 400 employees and coaches to develop these ratings.

This model is far from perfect, as the lack of player ratings worldwide doesn’t let me analyze lower profile teams like Paraguay, an opponent of the United States. However, it does provide a complementary perspective to my world rankings which take margin of victory in matches and adjusts for strength of schedule.

Here, let’s see what the model says when breaking down the United States into offense and defense.

The model on defense is more simple than offense, and I give the most weight to features like defensive awareness and aggression. The goal keeper matters most, followed by the center backs down to no contribution for the three primary attacking players.

On offense, I picked different features depending on position. Finishing matters for all players but passing accuracy is more important for midfielders than center forwards. The center forward, left wing and right wing each contribute 20% to the team offense while goal keepers are not included.

Let’s dig into what this player model says for the USMNT.

The US is stronger on offense than defense. Christian Pulisic has the highest offensive rating on the team, which is not surprising given his production at Milan over the past three seasons. In the midfield, Malik Tillman has almost as strong an offensive rating as Weston McKennie.

Striker Folarin Balogun does not rate as highly as these three players, and that might be a problem with the model. Balogun created 11.1 expected goals in Ligue 1 this season, fourth best in the top French league.

The US might have issues on defense. The model has left back Antonee Robinson and central midfielder Weston McKennie as the two best defensive players. It’s not good when the best defenders do not include the goal keeper or center backs.

I’m assuming center back Chris Richards plays despite tearing two ligaments in his ankle last month. 38 year old Tim Ream will start as the other center back, but FC 26 ratings suggest Cameron Carter-Vickers would be an upgrade if he were not hurt.

The player ratings like goal keeper Matt Turner more than starter Matt Freese.

The model does not like Alex Freeman. If the US uses the same lineup in the World Cup as against Germany, Freeman will start as a hybrid center back, right back. He is an athletic 21 year old that made a move to Villareal in Spain’s top league in January, and he started 3 of the last 6 matches in his best stretch of playing time.

In the starting lineup for the USMNT, Freeman has the worst offensive rating among contributing players and second worst defensive rating behind Ream. This might be too harsh on Freeman, and he did play well against Germany.

Overall, I agree with the consensus that the US gets out of the group and most likely wins a Round of 32 match. They probably lose in the Round of 16, most likely to Argentina or Belgium. Their World Cup path starts on Friday at 9pm Eastern against Paraguay.

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Filed Under: The Power Rank Newsletter, World Cup

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