Pumped about the World Cup? Looking for more data driven insights into the USMNT?
Over the past month, I’ve worked on a player based model for international teams using the ratings for FC 26, the video game by EA Sports. They employ an army of 400 employees and coaches to develop these ratings.
This model is far from perfect, as the lack of player ratings worldwide doesn’t let me analyze lower profile teams like Paraguay, an opponent of the United States. However, it does provide a complementary perspective to my world rankings which take margin of victory in matches and adjusts for strength of schedule.
Here, let’s see what the model says when breaking down the United States into offense and defense.
The model on defense is more simple than offense, and I give the most weight to features like defensive awareness and aggression. The goal keeper matters most, followed by the center backs down to no contribution for the three primary attacking players.
On offense, I picked different features depending on position. Finishing matters for all players but passing accuracy is more important for midfielders than center forwards. The center forward, left wing and right wing each contribute 20% to the team offense while goal keepers are not included.
Let’s dig into what this player model says for the USMNT.
The US is stronger on offense than defense. Christian Pulisic has the highest offensive rating on the team, which is not surprising given his production at Milan over the past three seasons. In the midfield, Malik Tillman has almost as strong an offensive rating as Weston McKennie.
Striker Folarin Balogun does not rate as highly as these three players, and that might be a problem with the model. Balogun created 11.1 expected goals in Ligue 1 this season, fourth best in the top French league.
The US might have issues on defense. The model has left back Antonee Robinson and central midfielder Weston McKennie as the two best defensive players. It’s not good when the best defenders do not include the goal keeper or center backs.
I’m assuming center back Chris Richards plays despite tearing two ligaments in his ankle last month. 38 year old Tim Ream will start as the other center back, but FC 26 ratings suggest Cameron Carter-Vickers would be an upgrade if he were not hurt.
The player ratings like goal keeper Matt Turner more than starter Matt Freese.
The model does not like Alex Freeman. If the US uses the same lineup in the World Cup as against Germany, Freeman will start as a hybrid center back, right back. He is an athletic 21 year old that made a move to Villareal in Spain’s top league in January, and he started 3 of the last 6 matches in his best stretch of playing time.
In the starting lineup for the USMNT, Freeman has the worst offensive rating among contributing players and second worst defensive rating behind Ream. This might be too harsh on Freeman, and he did play well against Germany.
Overall, I agree with the consensus that the US gets out of the group and most likely wins a Round of 32 match. They probably lose in the Round of 16, most likely to Argentina or Belgium. Their World Cup path starts on Friday at 9pm Eastern against Paraguay.
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