I got interested in the numbers behind a perfect bracket when I saw the existing analysis. A 1 in 128 billion chance for you to pick a perfect bracket? Exactly what assumption does this make?
And no one had looked into the odds that any one of 15 million entrants wins the $1 billion prize. To me, that’s the more interesting question.
Under the most pessimistic assumptions possible for Buffett, he has a 1 in 590,000 chance to lose his money. In reality, the likelihood is more like 1 in a million or more.
To read my analysis, which has very few numbers and references to Floyd Mayweather and the Khardashians, head over to Grantland.
In case you were wondering, I’m not filling out a bracket. There’s no chance of winning, and I don’t want Quicken Loans spam filling up my inbox.