THE POWER RANK

NFL Rankings, Week 14

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In the immortal words of Leonard Nimoy:  I am about to boldly go where The Power Rank’s predictive capability has never gone before.

OK.  So that might be a slight misquote, but I’m sure if the NFL were popular on Vulcan he very well might have said it.  After all, how could Spock resist the logic of The Power Rank algorithm?

A few weeks ago, I discussed playoff predictions and how The Power Rank’s best teams didn’t quite match up with the current playoff scenario at the time, in a very incomplete season.  This week I’ve used The Power Rank’s week 14 ratings to project the victors of all games in the final three weeks of the season and calculated who will make the playoffs based on those projections.

One important modification had to be made, however, as The Power Rank’s ratings only account for a game in a neutral location.  A common practice for football bettors is to give an automatic three points to the home team to compensate for the home field advantage.  I used that convenient number to do the same with The Power Rank’s ratings when projecting the outcome of the remaining games in the season.

This three point home field bonus was surprisingly not a factor in most of the games.  Instances where it did change the outcome of a game were generally very good match ups that will certainly be big games in the upcoming weeks.

Home Field Upset Number One – Bears (#12) over Jets (#10) in week 16.  A battle between two of the NFL’s nastiest defenses fighting for a playoff spot in late December…  it could be the tag line for a movie.

Home Field Upset Number Two – Rams (#25) over Chiefs (#16) in week 15.  The Rams make a huge jump through that tightly packed middle to beat cross-state rivals.  If this prediction is correct it locks up the Ram’s playoff spot and shuts Kansas City out.

Home Field Upset Number Three – Giants (#14) over Eagles (#6) in week 15.  This one is huge.  With the three point bonus, New York edges out Philly by a mere .08 points.  If this tiniest of margins helps sway the game in favor of the Giants it will not only edge Green Bay (#3) out of the playoffs but also make a tie for division winner between the Eagles and Giants in overall record, head-to-head record, and division record.  Even though both teams make the playoffs either way, a Giants win could bring the seeding into question.

Home Field Upset Number Four – Buccaneers (#21) over Lions (#19) in week 15.  This…  is not an exciting game.  The Lions proved last week against the Packers that they could be potent playoff spoilers, but The Power Rank suggests that the Lions won’t thaw in time to win when visiting sunny Tampa Bay.  This win helps Tampa eventually climb to 10-6, but they still fall short of the playoffs unless…

Non-Upset Big Game Number One – Buccaneers (#21) at New Orleans (#8) in week 17.  The Power Rank predicts a solid victory for the Saints, but consider this a March Madness style play-in game.  The Power Rank predicts both NFC South teams will enter this game at 10-5, meaning the winner will move on and the losers will go home.  If both teams do show up tied expect a battle.

Check out the predictions for Week 15 here.

On to the winners…

The AFC doesn’t have many surprises as the top ranked teams finish strong and secure their playoff spots.

The NFC is a bit more jumbled.  #3 ranked Green Bay feels the sting of five losses by a total of 16 points and doesn’t make it.  Making Packer and Buccaneer fans especially angry is St. Louis limping in with the NFC West title and an 8-8 record.

So, 10  of the Power Rank’s top 12 are expected to make the cut.  The exceptions are Green Bay (#3) and Cleveland (#11), with the Giants (#14) and St. Louis (#25) taking their place instead.

1. New England, 11-2, 9.29
2. Pittsburgh, 10-3, 5.98
3. Green Bay, 8-5, 5.69
4. Baltimore, 9-4, 5.22
5. Atlanta, 11-2, 4.78
6. Philadelphia, 9-4, 4.12
7. San Diego, 7-6, 4.09
8. New Orleans, 10-3, 3.03
9. Indianapolis, 7-6, 2.87
10. New York Jets, 9-4, 1.83
11. Cleveland, 5-8, 1.53
12. Chicago, 9-4, 1.50
13. Tennessee, 5-8, 1.42
14. New York Giants, 9-4, 1.20
15. Miami, 7-6, 1.07
16. Kansas City, 8-5, -0.96
17. Houston, 5-8, -1.12
18. Oakland, 6-7, -1.15
19. Detroit, 3-10, -1.19
20. Dallas, 4-9, -1.22
21. Tampa Bay, 8-5, -1.52
22. Jacksonville, 8-5, -1.71
23. Buffalo, 3-10, -2.43
24. Minnesota, 5-8, -2.52
25. St. Louis, 6-7, -2.63
26. Cincinnati, 2-11, -3.03
27. Washington, 5-8, -3.23
28. San Francisco, 5-8, -3.59
29. Seattle, 6-7, -4.38
30. Denver, 3-10, -4.52
31. Arizona, 4-9, -7.01
32. Carolina, 1-12, -11.39

NFL Rankings, Week 13

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Anyone who looks at rankings certainly starts at one place:  the top.  This week the Power Rank has yet another #1 ranked team, the New England Patriots.  Anyone who saw their incredible 45-3 Monday night drubbing of the previously #1 New York Jets should have known this ascension was coming.  Right now the Patriots are as hot as Tom Brady in a pair of Uggs:

Perhaps what’s even more impressive is how far the Jets fell in The Power Rank due to this loss.  They fell from a #2 spot with a rating of 5.93 to #11 and a rating of 2.21.  In other words, this loss told the Power Rank’s algorithm the same thing it told NFL analysts – truly good teams may lose, but they do not get blown out.  The Jets, and especially Mark Sanchez (17/33 for 164yds, 0 TD, 3 INT) , have been exposed and The Power Rank is reflecting just how much they got exposed without considering the hype or emotion surrounding this defeat.

AFC East matters aside, another interesting phenomenon has struck The Power Rank this week.  All year, the AFC has dominated The Power Rank.  Until three weeks ago when the Packers started their two week reign in the #1 spot, that realty had been the sole possession of AFC teams.  For most of the season The Power Rank’s top ten has been dominated by AFC teams.  Earlier in the season the only two NFC teams to crack the top ten were Green Bay and Atlanta, and then just barely.

NFC fans, redemption is close at hand.

If Green Bay’s  rise to the #1 spot in week 11 was an indicator that the NFC was getting better, the top ten of week 13 has got to be the NFC’s coming out party.  The top ten is now an even 5-5 split between NFC and AFC teams.  The Packers (#2), Falcons (#5), Eagles (#6), Bears (#7) and Saints (#10) are leading the charge to restore dignity to the conference.

This rise is in spite of the anchor that is the NFC West, a divison that owns three of the bottom four spots in the Power Rank, and as of right now has no winning teams since the Rams and Seahawks are both at 6-6.  To get a feeling of the impact that a division like the NFC West has on a conference, look at what happened to Green Bay this week.

It’s no surprise that Green Bay was surpassed by New England this week in the rankings, but it is curious that Green Bay’s rating dropped even though they beat San Francisco 34-16 last Sunday.  While that appears to be a solid victory, the Niners were ranked so low (#29, -3.81) that the Packers rating dropped 0.27 after the victory.

Atlanta and their impressive 10-2 record is a team to watch in the NFC.  They have been highly ranked all year but have had trouble rising in the ranks to an elite position.  This week’s #5 spot is as close as they’ve come to the top.  The reason Atlanta has a ceiling is that they have been dominant at home but have failed to beat a formidable opponent on the road.  Both of their losses have been on the road at Pittsburgh (#3) and Philadelphia (#6).  Their most impressive road win was a 27-24 nail biter at New Orleans when the Saints were still in their Super Bowl hangover.

Atlanta has been both the benefactor and victim of an overall weak schedule, which only gets weaker as the season comes to a close.  Their final four games put them at Carolina (#32) and at Seattle (#30) before coming home to finish out against New Orleans (#10) and then Carolina again.  Even if the Falcons drop a home game to the Saints, which is unlikely, they will cruise into the playoffs with a 13-3 record that will most likely be the best in the NFC.

Will homefield advantage carry the Falcons through to the Super Bowl?  They’ve been undefeated at home all season including wins against Green Bay (#2) and Baltimore (#4), but those are also their only two truly impressive victories. In addition, those games were both one score games as they beat the Ravens by five and the Packers by only three.

Expect the Falcons to finish with the best record in the NFC and get the number one seed in the playoffs, but also expect The Power Rank to reflect their weak schedule and be a better predictor of their postseason success.

1. New England, 10-2, 8.24
2. Green Bay, 8-4, 6.55
3. Pittsburgh, 9-3, 5.47
4. Baltimore, 8-4, 4.80
5. Atlanta, 10-2, 4.54
6. Philadelphia, 8-4, 4.19
7. Chicago, 9-3, 2.89
8. Indianapolis, 6-6, 2.72
9. San Diego, 6-6, 2.46
10. New Orleans, 9-3, 2.33
11. New York Jets, 9-3, 2.21
12. Cleveland, 5-7, 1.51
13. Tennessee, 5-7, 1.49
14. Kansas City, 8-4, 1.19
15. New York Giants, 8-4, 0.84
16. Miami, 6-6, 0.70
17. Houston, 5-7, -0.76
18. Oakland, 6-6, -1.16
19. Dallas, 4-8, -1.26
20. Detroit, 2-10, -1.73
21. Tampa Bay, 7-5, -1.83
22. Minnesota, 5-7, -2.00
23. St. Louis, 6-6, -2.04
24. Jacksonville, 7-5, -2.09
25. Washington, 5-7, -2.63
26. Denver, 3-9, -2.92
27. Cincinnati, 2-10, -3.00
28. Buffalo, 2-10, -3.24
29. San Francisco, 4-8, -3.96
30. Seattle, 6-6, -4.17
31. Arizona, 3-9, -8.26
32. Carolina, 1-11, -11.05

NFL Rankings, Week 12

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Those fans that read last week’s post must know how crushed I felt when I saw the #1 ranked Green Bay Packers go to Atlanta and lose.  Not only did I fear that they would lose their #1 spot, but I also trembled at the thought of the Packers having to visit Atlanta again in the playoffs.

At least one of those things didn’t come true.  Since the Falcons are a highly rated team (#6 this week) the three point loss didn’t cripple the Packers’ position in the Power Rank.  In fact, this three point loss was the Packer’s fourth three point loss this season, and it’s the only way they’ve lost in 2010.

Moving past my own NFC interests, the rest of the league is continuing the trends of the season: the top continues to flatten out, the middle continues to see lots of movement but few breakouts, and the bottom continues to be dominated by the NFC West.  It’s really sad that three of the bottom four teams are all from that division, but it’s true.

For this week I’ve brought back the checkup graph that I did for week seven that charted how each team had changed in the last few weeks.

The most notable items on the graph are the teams at the top.  With the exception of newcomer Green Bay, they have all maintained their places of dominance for the last five weeks with little ranking change.  Their ratings, especially those of the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers, have plummeted.  I think this is more a function of their schedules getting tougher and these teams having to play each other than it is an indication that they are getting weaker.  If there isn’t parity in league there certainly is near the top this year.

The last thing I want to mention this week in Monday night’s game.  After this past week’s Arizona (#31) and San Francisco (#29) showdown that couldn’t have held much less interest for the league, this week’s match between New England (#3) and New York (#2) should be one for the ages.

These two division rivals are both playing at the top of their games and will be treating this one like a playoff game.  Expect things to get just as heated as the Cortland Finnegan/Andre Johnson brawl.  The Power Rank predicts a 0.22 difference in favor of the Jets in a neutral field.  I think home field advantage will tip the scales enough for the Pats to come away victors in this one.

The only thing that is fairly certain is that it will be fun to watch in spite of Gruden and Jaws.

1. Green Bay, 7-4, 6.82
2. New York Jets, 9-2, 5.93
3. New England, 9-2, 5.71
4. Baltimore, 8-3, 5.27
5. Pittsburgh, 8-3, 4.52
6. Atlanta, 9-2, 4.32
7. Philadelphia, 7-4, 4.07
8. San Diego, 6-5, 3.88
9. Indianapolis, 6-5, 3.18
10. Chicago, 8-3, 2.74
11. Kansas City, 7-4, 1.90
12. New Orleans, 8-3, 1.76
13. Tennessee, 5-6, 1.33
14. Miami, 6-5, 1.04
15. Cleveland, 4-7, 0.42
16. Houston, 5-6, 0.15
17. New York Giants, 7-4, 0.05
18. Detroit, 2-9, -1.16
19. Washington, 5-6, -1.79
20. Tampa Bay, 7-4, -1.92
21. Dallas, 3-8, -2.36
22. St. Louis, 5-6, -2.37
23. Jacksonville, 6-5, -2.52
24. Buffalo, 2-9, -2.67
25. Minnesota, 4-7, -2.74
26. Oakland, 5-6, -2.80
27. Denver, 3-8, -2.94
28. Cincinnati, 2-9, -3.01
29. San Francisco, 4-7, -3.81
30. Seattle, 5-6, -4.03
31. Arizona, 3-8, -7.88
32. Carolina, 1-10, -11.10

NFL Rankings, Week 11

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Happy Thanksgiving Power Rank fans!

Whenever I read any kind of article, especially of an editorial nature, I always wonder about what kind of bias the author might have.  As a lifelong Packer fan living in America’s Dairyland it’s hard to not feel a swelling in my heart when I see that the unbiased rating of The Power Rank has put my beloved green and gold in first place, making them the first NFC team to earn that rank since the Saints held it in the 2009 season.

That heart swelling may also be related to my Wisconsin diet of beer, fried cheese, and bratwurst but I’m waiting on a second opinion on that.

What may surprise some fans is why the Packers have made the ascension to the #1 spot.

In the preseason rankings the Packers were expected to be an offensive powerhouse, but with key injuries to Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley the offense has only been 8th overall in points scored.  Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and the Packers defense have carried them by tying the Bears for the least points allowed this season.

A key for the super-aggressive Packer defense has been staying away from penalties.  When refs let them play, the violence of Matthews and Woodson create turnovers and terrorize ball carriers.  When the game is called tightly, the Packers end up with many crippling penalties like the 18 they had against the Bears.  Look for this to continue to be a decisive factor in Packer games this year.

Ok, ok…  I’m done gushing over my team.

I want to talk more generally about the continued polarization of teams in this year of parity.  In week six I wrote about the middle of the pack and the mass of teams near the zero rating point.  In that week there were 16 teams between +2.00 and -2.00 in the ratings, now we are down to nine.

What’s more interesting as the playoffs draw closer is that there is only a 0.79 difference between the #2 Jets (5.60)and the #7 Steelers (4.81).  That’s a smaller gap than that between the Steelers and the #8 Falcons (3.77).  Since five of these six teams are in the AFC it’s apparent that homefield advantage is going to be more important than ever for the AFC playoffs, and that those playoffs should be very well matched and among the most exciting to watch in years.

Finally, I want to address the Parity Wheel that was released this week.  It’s a graphic designed to show how every team in the NFL can be linked to each other through wins.  On the original wheel (top) each team beat the team clockwise from them by the score indicated.

I thought this was especially interesting because The Power Rank takes this kind of information into account, and I wrote about the lack of parity in the NFL a couple weeks ago.  So I decided to clear out the scores and replace them with each team’s current rank, at least for the top and bottom ten teams in the bottom graphic.

Not surprisingly both the top and bottom ten teams are grouped together on this graphic, just as they were on the graphs posted in this blog in previous weeks.

The Packers are starting to break away from the pack as a dominant top team, and the Panthers remain the most decisively bad team but within the top, middle, and bottom packs the competition remains tight.

1. Green Bay, 7-3, 7.43
2. New York Jets, 8-2, 5.60
3. Baltimore, 7-3, 5.33
4. Philadelphia, 7-3, 5.11
5. New England, 8-2, 5.06
6. Indianapolis, 6-4, 4.91
7. Pittsburgh, 7-3, 4.81
8. Atlanta, 8-2, 3.77
9. Tennessee, 5-5, 3.08
10. Chicago, 7-3, 2.42
11. San Diego, 5-5, 2.24
12. New Orleans, 7-3, 1.27
13. Kansas City, 6-4, 1.04
14. Miami, 5-5, 0.87
15. Cleveland, 3-7, 0.61
16. New York Giants, 6-4, 0.25
17. Detroit, 2-8, 0.14
18. Washington, 5-5, -0.58
19. Houston, 4-6, -0.75
20. Dallas, 3-7, -1.93
21. Oakland, 5-5, -2.24
22. Jacksonville, 6-4, -2.27
23. Denver, 3-7, -2.34
24. Cincinnati, 2-8, -2.51
25. Tampa Bay, 7-3, -2.83
26. Buffalo, 2-8, -2.90
27. St. Louis, 4-6, -3.10
28. Minnesota, 3-7, -3.19
29. Seattle, 5-5, -3.62
30. San Francisco, 3-7, -4.46
31. Arizona, 3-7, -7.42
32. Carolina, 1-9, -13.78

NFL Rankings, Week 8

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Week eight was an exciting week for the Power Rank as the Packers took down the #1 ranked New York Jets. This upset created a contraction of scores at the top of the list, creating yet another group like the one we discussed just a couple weeks ago.

That group was significant because it included so many of the NFL’s teams stuck within a few points of each other. This group isn’t as large but it’s possibly more significant in that it represents the top seven teams, and according to the Power Rank’s ratings they are only separated by 1.54 points. The Jets and Colts may share the top spot (ok, Indy is #1 but only by thousands of a point that are not shown) but the Packers at #7 are only a few steps behind them… and as we saw last week they are certainly close enough to deliver a solid upset. That really applies for all teams at the top of this week’s rank – The Jets, Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Ravens, and Packers are all within striking distance of each other and we may see a lot of movement within this group. The next closest teams to joining this elite group are the Chiefs and Chargers, but neither team looks particularly poised to make a move and separate themselves from the relatively weak AFC West.

Speaking of divisions, it is about time to address how each of the NFL’s eight divisions are doing in the Power Rank.

With the #2 and #3 spots in the Power Rank, the AFC East is the top divison in the league with a 2.22 average rating. The second best division, the AFC South, boasts a 2.15 average rating. If these divisions were teams, they would rank at #9 in our rankings, between Kansas City and San Diego – and keep in mind that these averages include the Bills and the Jaguars. These numbers are very impressive for these two divisions.

Not surprisingly, third best is also an AFC division that includes 2 of those top seven elite teams, the AFC North led by the Steelers and Ravens. The AFC North posts a respectable 1.34 average rating. Now that we’ve covered the best three, we can move on to the NFC. The NFC North contains the only elite team of the Power Rank found in the NFC, The Green Bay Packers. They are also helped by having the highest ranked worst team in a division, the Chicago Bears at #20. The average rank for the NFC North is 1.19.

The AFC West leads the bottom half of the divisions with an average rating of 0.39, followed by the NFC East at -0.36, the NFC South at -3.33, and the abysmal NFC West carrying a -3.59 average. That’s right, the NFC South is about as good as the Jacksonville Jaguars and the NFC West averages the same as Dallas and their 1-6 record. Ouch. The best team in the NFC West is St. Louis at #21, the lowest rank for any best team in the division. That’s right everyone, the BEST team in the NFC West is ranked at #21.

Division Rankings, Week 8

1. Indianapolis, 5-2, 6.25
2. New York Jets, 5-2, 6.25
3. New England, 6-1, 5.62
4. Pittsburgh, 5-2, 5.12
5. Tennessee, 5-3, 5.02
6. Baltimore, 5-2, 4.91
7. Green Bay, 5-3, 4.71
8. Kansas City, 5-2, 2.47
9. San Diego, 3-5, 1.77
10. Atlanta, 5-2, 1.45
11. New York Giants, 5-2, 1.41
12. Miami, 4-3, 1.39
13. Philadelphia, 4-3, 0.73
14. Houston, 4-3, 0.59
15. Detroit, 2-5, 0.49
16. Minnesota, 2-5, 0.24
17. New Orleans, 5-3, -0.09
18. Washington, 4-4, -0.14
19. Oakland, 4-4, -0.52
20. Chicago, 4-3, -0.68
21. St. Louis, 4-4, -1.06
22. Denver, 2-6, -2.18
23. Cincinnati, 2-5, -2.30
24. Cleveland, 2-5, -2.39
25. Seattle, 4-3, -2.96
26. Jacksonville, 4-4, -3.27
27. Dallas, 1-6, -3.45
28. San Francisco, 2-6, -4.30
29. Buffalo, 0-7, -4.40
30. Tampa Bay, 5-2, -5.09
31. Arizona, 3-4, -6.02
32. Carolina, 1-6, -9.57