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NFL Rankings, Week 13

By Tom Kellogg Leave a Comment

Anyone who looks at rankings certainly starts at one place:  the top.  This week the Power Rank has yet another #1 ranked team, the New England Patriots.  Anyone who saw their incredible 45-3 Monday night drubbing of the previously #1 New York Jets should have known this ascension was coming.  Right now the Patriots are as hot as Tom Brady in a pair of Uggs:

Perhaps what’s even more impressive is how far the Jets fell in The Power Rank due to this loss.  They fell from a #2 spot with a rating of 5.93 to #11 and a rating of 2.21.  In other words, this loss told the Power Rank’s algorithm the same thing it told NFL analysts – truly good teams may lose, but they do not get blown out.  The Jets, and especially Mark Sanchez (17/33 for 164yds, 0 TD, 3 INT) , have been exposed and The Power Rank is reflecting just how much they got exposed without considering the hype or emotion surrounding this defeat.

AFC East matters aside, another interesting phenomenon has struck The Power Rank this week.  All year, the AFC has dominated The Power Rank.  Until three weeks ago when the Packers started their two week reign in the #1 spot, that realty had been the sole possession of AFC teams.  For most of the season The Power Rank’s top ten has been dominated by AFC teams.  Earlier in the season the only two NFC teams to crack the top ten were Green Bay and Atlanta, and then just barely.

NFC fans, redemption is close at hand.

If Green Bay’s  rise to the #1 spot in week 11 was an indicator that the NFC was getting better, the top ten of week 13 has got to be the NFC’s coming out party.  The top ten is now an even 5-5 split between NFC and AFC teams.  The Packers (#2), Falcons (#5), Eagles (#6), Bears (#7) and Saints (#10) are leading the charge to restore dignity to the conference.

This rise is in spite of the anchor that is the NFC West, a divison that owns three of the bottom four spots in the Power Rank, and as of right now has no winning teams since the Rams and Seahawks are both at 6-6.  To get a feeling of the impact that a division like the NFC West has on a conference, look at what happened to Green Bay this week.

It’s no surprise that Green Bay was surpassed by New England this week in the rankings, but it is curious that Green Bay’s rating dropped even though they beat San Francisco 34-16 last Sunday.  While that appears to be a solid victory, the Niners were ranked so low (#29, -3.81) that the Packers rating dropped 0.27 after the victory.

Atlanta and their impressive 10-2 record is a team to watch in the NFC.  They have been highly ranked all year but have had trouble rising in the ranks to an elite position.  This week’s #5 spot is as close as they’ve come to the top.  The reason Atlanta has a ceiling is that they have been dominant at home but have failed to beat a formidable opponent on the road.  Both of their losses have been on the road at Pittsburgh (#3) and Philadelphia (#6).  Their most impressive road win was a 27-24 nail biter at New Orleans when the Saints were still in their Super Bowl hangover.

Atlanta has been both the benefactor and victim of an overall weak schedule, which only gets weaker as the season comes to a close.  Their final four games put them at Carolina (#32) and at Seattle (#30) before coming home to finish out against New Orleans (#10) and then Carolina again.  Even if the Falcons drop a home game to the Saints, which is unlikely, they will cruise into the playoffs with a 13-3 record that will most likely be the best in the NFC.

Will homefield advantage carry the Falcons through to the Super Bowl?  They’ve been undefeated at home all season including wins against Green Bay (#2) and Baltimore (#4), but those are also their only two truly impressive victories. In addition, those games were both one score games as they beat the Ravens by five and the Packers by only three.

Expect the Falcons to finish with the best record in the NFC and get the number one seed in the playoffs, but also expect The Power Rank to reflect their weak schedule and be a better predictor of their postseason success.

1. New England, 10-2, 8.24
2. Green Bay, 8-4, 6.55
3. Pittsburgh, 9-3, 5.47
4. Baltimore, 8-4, 4.80
5. Atlanta, 10-2, 4.54
6. Philadelphia, 8-4, 4.19
7. Chicago, 9-3, 2.89
8. Indianapolis, 6-6, 2.72
9. San Diego, 6-6, 2.46
10. New Orleans, 9-3, 2.33
11. New York Jets, 9-3, 2.21
12. Cleveland, 5-7, 1.51
13. Tennessee, 5-7, 1.49
14. Kansas City, 8-4, 1.19
15. New York Giants, 8-4, 0.84
16. Miami, 6-6, 0.70
17. Houston, 5-7, -0.76
18. Oakland, 6-6, -1.16
19. Dallas, 4-8, -1.26
20. Detroit, 2-10, -1.73
21. Tampa Bay, 7-5, -1.83
22. Minnesota, 5-7, -2.00
23. St. Louis, 6-6, -2.04
24. Jacksonville, 7-5, -2.09
25. Washington, 5-7, -2.63
26. Denver, 3-9, -2.92
27. Cincinnati, 2-10, -3.00
28. Buffalo, 2-10, -3.24
29. San Francisco, 4-8, -3.96
30. Seattle, 6-6, -4.17
31. Arizona, 3-9, -8.26
32. Carolina, 1-11, -11.05

Filed Under: Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, National Football League, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks

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