Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA player prop – Jarrett Allen is a stalwart big for the Cleveland Cavaliers who impacts the game with his hustle. Since the arrival of James Harden, Allen has averaged 16.3 points, more than his season average.
Allen has dealt with a knee injury that caused him to miss games late in the regular season. This lingering injury might have caused some weak playoff games like 2 points in 18 minutes in game 1 against Detroit. However, Allen has averaged 13.2 points since returning from the knee injury, and he looked fine in scoring 22 points in game 2.
The market still seems to think Allen is having issues with his knee. FanDuel had a points prop of 10.5 points yesterday, and there is still value in Jarrett Allen over 11.5 points, -104 (game tips at 3:10pm Eastern).
WNBA player prop – The WNBA starts this weekend, and the Unabated team is offering another season of player projections. As a sample of their offerings, consider Monique Billings of the Indiana Fever.
The veteran Billings joins Caitlin Clark as a starter for the Fever this season. However, she is dealing with an ankle injury and will be on a minutes limit in Saturday’s game against the Dallas Wings.
The Unabated team projects 6.8 points in 20 minutes for Billing, and there is value in Monique Billings under 7.5 points, -128 at FanDuel.
College lacrosse – Once in awhile, it’s good to test your methods on a new sport. Based on The Power Rank algorithm, here are team rankings for men’s college lacrosse (the rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average Division 1 team):
- Notre Dame, 8.4
- Virginia, 8.1
- Penn State, 8.0
- Richmond, 8.0
- Princeton, 7.9
The markets favor Princeton (+230) to win the tournament, but this most likely overrates their 19-9 thrashing of Cornell last weekend. The closeness of the ratings of the top five teams suggests a very competitive tournament.
To grab a future, consider Penn State, one of four teams essentially tied for second in the nation. Penn State went 9-5 but lost those five games by a total of 6 goals. The calculations of Austin Mock of The Athletic put Penn State 3rd in the nation.
There is most likely value in Penn State +1300 to win the men’s lacrosse championship. The Round of 16 starts at 2:30pm Eastern on Saturday.
USC football – Lincoln Riley was a big splash hire for USC back in 2022. However, he hasn’t necessarily lived up to the hype, as he hasn’t won 10 games since his first season and has zero playoff appearances.
Riley always fields an excellent offense, and the return of QB Jordan Maiava should continue that trend despite the lack of experience at wide receiver. The defense has always been the question mark though, and it gets even more interesting this season.
USC’s defense returns a host of talent from last season. In addition, Riley hired legend Gary Patterson as the DC, a coach that invented the modern football defense with five defensive backs at TCU but hasn’t coached in half a decade.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly rocks college football all off season, and his insights into 11 top teams is a must read.
Football humor – “Their job is attempted murder.” An amazing clip from Neal Brennan, a comedian most famous for writing The Chappelle Show.
This clip is from 3 Mics on Netflix, one of my favorite stand up comedy specials ever.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply