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Player prop, Illinois vs UConn – Jake Davis is a three point shooter who starts for Illinois. However, his minutes have been taken away lately by Andrei Stojakovic, who has averaged 13.7 points in the last three games despite coming off the bench.
If you assume Davis plays 14.5 minutes, his tournament average, and use his points per minute in Big Ten play, you get a prediction of 4.3 points. There is the additional out that Stojakovic struggles and Davis gets more minutes (22.6 in conference play).
There is value in Jake Davis over 3.5 points, +100 available at FanDuel.
Most points scored in the Final Four – David Mirkovic is huge at 6’9″ and 250 pounds. The Illinois forward uses his height and bulk to bully opponents near the basket and has also has hit 38% of his threes.
Mirkovic has been Illinois’s second leading scorer this season behind Keaton Wagler but has only averaged 10.0 points in his last three games. Mirkovic should do better in the Final Four.
To score the most points in the Final Four, it is critical to play two games, and Illinois is a slight favorite over UConn. A fun long shot is David Mirkovic at 20-1 for Final Four leading total points scorer at FanDuel, as I think it should closer to 15-1 (UConn second leading scorer Alex Karaban at 16-1).
UConn, national champion? My best numbers give UConn about an 8% chance to win a national championship. They are an underdog to Illinois, and many consider Michigan vs Arizona to be a de facto title game.
However, the markets have UConn’s championship probability around 13%. If they win on Monday night, you might wonder if you’ve missed some signs heading into the Final Four.
- UConn has made the Final Four despite making only 29% from three in the tournament.
- Tarris Reed Jr. looked like Joel Embiid in keeping UConn in the game against Duke. He had 26 points and 9 rebounds against an elite front line.
- Dan Hurley, love or hate him, has led the two most dominant tournament runs of recent memory.
The market has moved from UConn +2.5 to 1.5 vs Illinois. Don’t be shocked if Connecticut wins this tournament.
Keaton Wagler’s biggest accomplishment – While the freshman point guard had a 46 point performance against Purdue, some think he hit his peak on February 13. Wagler ate a full pancake.
Wagler flew under the college basketball recruiting radar because of his thin physique. Desite outstanding performances, most coaches couldn’t look past the 168 pounds on his 6’6″ frame. A lack of explosiveness doesn’t help either.
However, Illinois coach Brad Underwood saw something in Wagler, who is now up to about 180 pounds. ESPN had an excellent profile of the freshman point guard who has led Illinois to the Final Four.
College basketball humor – Chris Farley, RIP, kills it in his re-creation of Michigan’s Rumeal Robinson game winning free throws in the 1989 NCAA tournament (:29).
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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