This article was adapted from my 2026 bracket advice. You can get the full bracket advice by becoming a member of The Power Rank (use the code bracket for $20 off until the tournament tips at 12:15pm on Thursday) or as a separate product.
It’s not hard to see why pollsters had Purdue first the preseason AP poll. This team brought back productive veterans in point guard Braden Smith and 6’9” Trey Kaufman-Renn.
These two players are projected as 2nd round picks in the upcoming NBA draft. In an earlier era, they might have left and became two way players between the NBA and G League. Now, with the money in college basketball, they stayed for another season at Purdue.
Purdue has disappointed their preseason rank with 8 losses. The problem has been defense, as they rank 33rd in my adjusted points per possession.
However, this team is elite on offense, as they rank 1st in my adjusted efficiency. Smith and Kaufman-Renn lead the offense, but Fletcher Loyer chips in with 42% from three.
Big Oscar Cluff transferred in from South Dakota State and makes 70% on twos. He scored easily over Michigan’s front line in the Big Ten tournament final victory.
Ken Pomeroy suggested Purdue as a contrarian champion, arguing that their defense allowed over 50% from three in home losses to Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan and Wisconsin. There is a lot of randomness in three point defense.
Purdue has allowed opponents to make 34.2% of their threes, worse than the college basketball average of 33.9%. However, in the previous five seasons, Purdue allowed only 31.8% from three, 20th best in the nation.
Despite the randomness in three point defense, programs do tend to regress to their historical average. Houston has been my primary example over the years, but Purdue has also sustained a better three point defense for five seasons than I would have expected. It is reasonable to expect Purdue to outperform their defensive numbers in the tournament.
Purdue is an interesting sleeper team with 4.6% tournament win probability in my best ensemble numbers. However, there is not much contrarian value as they are getting picked as champion in 3% of brackets on ESPN.
I’m more excited about another long shot contrarian champion, but I will save that for the full bracket advice available to members of The Power Rank.
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