My best prediction for the Super Bowl has Seattle by 2.9 on a neutral site against New England. Determining whether New England +4.5 has value comes down to figuring out whether Drake Maye will continue to underperform in the playoffs.
Let’s look at Maye’s performance in the playoffs compared the NFL average 42.5% success rate (SR) and 6.11 yards per pass attempt (YPPA). He started off fine in the playoffs but has dipped the past two games.
Against the Los Angles Chargers, a top 10 pass defense, Maye had a solid 41.2% SR and 6.91 YPPA. He threw a pick, but it was the only football that the Chargers defense touched on all night. This was a solid performance, especially compared to a Justin Herbert led Chargers offense that only managed 3 points.
Against Houston, probably the best pass defense in the NFL, Maye struggled with a 25.0% SR and 4.47 YPPA. He threw an interception and lost two of his four fumbles. The cold and snowy weather conditions were far from ideal for the passing game.
CJ Stroud gifted the Patriots 4 interceptions. However, New England only pulled away when WR Kayshon Boutte pulled down an amazing one handed touchdown catch in 4th quarter.
At Denver, a top 5 pass defense, Maye had a 19.2% SR and 2.5 YPPA in a game in which the second half snow and wind affected the passing game. He didn’t throw a pick but almost threw a pick six in his first pass attempt.
While Maye hasn’t been great in the playoffs, his season long numbers that include the playoffs are excellent. For the season, Maye ranks 3rd in SR and 2nd in YPPA after my mathematical adjustments for opposing pass defenses.
In addition, Maye had very good performances against Atlanta and Cleveland, two top 10 pass defense, in the regular season. Overall, I feel that Maye deserves the benefit of the doubt, even against a top 5 pass defense of Seattle in the Super Bowl.
The market has been stuck on Seattle -4.5 all week. I would lean New England +4.5, but it is far from my favorite bet for this Super Bowl. Check out my minute video on this prop and follow on X for my daily minute videos.
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