Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL receiving yards prop – Against Buffalo, NFL expert Clevta thinks Denver will throw often to running backs. Buffalo’s defense plays two high safeties at a top five rate in the NFL and allows the second highest target rate to running backs.
Denver RB RJ Harvey has had a 11% or better target share in four of the past five games and tends to see an even higher target share against the two high safety coverage. Clevta’s model predicts a receiving yards for Harvey in the mid 20s.
There is value in RJ Harvey over 18.5 receiving yards, -112 on FanDuel (Buffalo at Denver kicks off at 4:30pm Eastern on Saturday). Follow Clevta on X or check out his website for his excellent, in depth NFL analysis.
NFL rushing attempts prop – On the Move the Line podcast, NFL expert Ryan Noonan notes that Seattle RB Kenneth Walker should get plenty of carries. The markets have Seattle -7, which gives a better chance of a second half game script that favors running the ball.
In addition, Seattle’s ground game dominated two weeks ago against a poor, injured San Francisco defense. Walker had 16 carries and rushed for 6.1 yards per carry in that game.
Ryan likes Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rush attempts, -118 available at FanDuel (San Francisco at Seattle kicks off at 8pm Eastern on Saturday). Follow Ryan Noonan on X for all of his NFL insights.
NFL passing yards prop – Despite the circumstances, San Francisco QB Brock Purdy balled out against Philadelphia last week. WR Ricky Pearsall didn’t play, and TE George Kittle only had a single catch before an Achilles injury ended his season. Purdy still had 262 passing yards against an excellent Eagles pass defense.
It gets harder for Purdy against a Seattle defense ranked 3rd in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. My model predicts 219 passing yards, and it should be even less if Pearsall doesn’t play. In addition, Purdy threw for 127 yards against Seattle two weeks ago.
Members of The Power Rank got Brock Purdy under 230.5 passing yards earlier this week, but there is still value on under 227.5 at FanDuel.
Fixing college basketball games – A federal indictment unsealed this week implicated 20 college basketball players in a point shaving scheme the past two seasons. Some of these players were playing this season but were immediately suspended.
For example, four players from DePaul were paid to underperform in games against three Big East opponents. Bettors would then wager on the first half spread against DePaul.
In some cases, the point shaving didn’t work. For example, Fordham covered the spread against Duquesne on February 23, 2024 despite the buying of two Fordham players.
Football humor – With Indiana in the college football championship game, you can ask why blue blood programs didn’t hire Curt Cignetti. However, as one administator noted in a Yahoo article:
If you’re looking to have a laugh at the Pittsburgh Steelers for not winning a playoff game in forever, this post on X is amazing.
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